Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 48)

Latest findings in modelling the coronavirus epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirements.

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1. Hairdressers are included in this category (opened on 5th April).

2. Non-essential shops include DIY stores, clothes or furniture shops. Garden centres and some homeware shops opened on the 5th of April.

3. Deaths and Cases from PHS COVID-19 daily cases in Scotland dashboard.

4. Vaccination and contact data for the 0-19 age cohort is not presented due to the vast majority of the age group not being offered vaccinations and the SCS excluding contacts between children.

5. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - (

6. Four week projections are included here.

7. Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. The difference between the two projections reflects uncertainty about behaviour and compliance as interventions are relaxed.

8. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

9. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

10. Four week projections are provided here: Scientific evidence supporting the government response to coronavirus (COVID-19) - GOV.UK (


12. PHS defines a confirmed COVID-19 death as an individual who dies within 28 days of their first positive COVID-19 laboratory report.

13. Based at Edinburgh University, Strathclyde University Aberdeen University and Public Health Scotland.



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