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Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 48)

Published
22 April 2021
From
Cabinet Secretary for NHS Recovery, Health and Social Care
Directorate
Constitution Directorate
Part of
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland, Health and social care, Public safety and emergencies
ISBN
9781800049482

Latest findings in modelling the coronavirus epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirements.

This document is part of a collection

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Technical Annex

How the modelling compares to the real data as it emerges

The following charts show the history of our modelling projections in comparison to estimates of the actual data. The infections projections were largely accurate during October to mid-December and from mid-January onward. During mid-December to mid-January, the projections underestimated the number of infections, due to the unforeseen effects of the new variant.

Figure 24. Infections projections versus actuals, for historical projections published between one and three weeks before the actual data came in.

A combination line and scatter graph comparing infections projections against actuals.

Hospital bed projections have generally been more precise than infections estimates due to being partially based on already known information about numbers of current infections, and number of people already in hospital. The projections are for number of people in hospital due to Covid-19, which is slightly different to the actuals, which are number of people in hospital within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test.

Figure 25. Hospital bed projections versus actuals, for historical projections published between one and three weeks before the actual data came in.

A combination line and scatter graph comparing hospital bed occupancy projections against actuals.

As with hospital beds, ICU bed projections have generally been more precise than infections. The projections are for number of people in ICU due to Covid-19. The actuals are number of people in ICU within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test up to 20 January, after which they include people in ICU over the 28 day limit.

Figure 26. ICU bed projections versus actuals, for historical projections published between one and three weeks before the actual data came in.

A combination line and scatter graph comparing ICU occupancy projections against actuals.

Table 1. Probability of local authority areas having more than 50, 100, 300 or 500 cases per 100K (2 – 8 May 2021). Data updated on 21 April.
LA P (Cases > 500) P (Cases > 300) P (Cases > 100) P (Cases > 50)
Aberdeen City 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Aberdeenshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Angus 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Argyll and Bute 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
City of Edinburgh 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Clackmannanshire 0-5% 5-15% 25-50% 25-50%
Dumfries & Galloway 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Dundee City 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
East Ayrshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
East Dunbartonshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
East Lothian 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
East Renfrewshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Falkirk 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Fife 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 15-25%
Glasgow City 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Highland 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Inverclyde 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Midlothian 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Moray 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 15-25%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
North Ayrshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
North Lanarkshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
Orkney Islands 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Perth and Kinross 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Renfrewshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 15-25%
Scottish Borders 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Shetland Islands 0-5% 0-5% 5-15% 5-15%
South Ayrshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
South Lanarkshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Stirling 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%
West Dunbartonshire 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
West Lothian 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 5-15%

The local estimates should be interpreted with caution as they are based on fewer models than previous reports.

Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels in a given week with no estimate for error. These units are in million gene copies per person per day, approximately equating to cases per 100,000 per day. Data updated 17 April.
Start End 28 Sites Estimate 28 Sites Coverage (%) All Sites Estimate All Sites Coverage (%)
31/05/2020 06/06/2020 0.20 22% 0.20 22%
07/06/2020 13/06/2020 0.21 26% 0.21 26%
14/06/2020 20/06/2020 0.10 11% 0.10 11%
28/06/2020 04/07/2020 0.03 24% 0.03 24%
09/08/2020 15/08/2020 2.89 21% 2.89 21%
16/08/2020 22/08/2020 1.06 49% 1.06 49%
23/08/2020 29/08/2020 2.43 46% 2.43 46%
30/08/2020 05/09/2020 2.42 49% 2.42 49%
06/09/2020 12/09/2020 4.20 48% 4.20 48%
13/09/2020 19/09/2020 2.34 35% 2.34 35%
20/09/2020 26/09/2020 7.67 49% 7.67 49%
27/09/2020 03/10/2020 14.43 48% 14.43 48%
04/10/2020 10/10/2020 24.01 37% 24.01 37%
11/10/2020 17/10/2020 20.18 45% 20.18 45%
18/10/2020 24/10/2020 25.71 48% 25.71 48%
25/10/2020 31/10/2020 20.92 48% 20.92 48%
01/11/2020 07/11/2020 22.06 48% 22.06 48%
08/11/2020 14/11/2020 22.56 44% 22.56 44%
15/11/2020 21/11/2020 16.51 45% 16.51 45%
22/11/2020 28/11/2020 20.86 32% 20.86 32%
29/11/2020 05/12/2020 28.97 49% 28.97 49%
06/12/2020 12/12/2020 17.36 49% 17.36 49%
13/12/2020 19/12/2020 17.12 45% 20.74 50%
27/12/2020 02/01/2021 68.08 31% 68.47 33%
03/01/2021 09/01/2021 58.46 49% 58.44 57%
10/01/2021 16/01/2021 64.70 49% 65.22 57%
17/01/2021 23/01/2021 32.48 49% 36.31 61%
24/01/2021 30/01/2021 33.74 49% 33.29 62%
31/01/2021 06/02/2021 33.80 49% 36.53 64%
07/02/2021 13/02/2021 29.24 49% 29.06 65%
14/02/2021 20/02/2021 22.22 37% 32.44 62%
21/02/2021 27/02/2021 15.73 48% 19.65 74%
28/02/2021 06/03/2021 11.62 49% 14.50 75%
07/03/2021 13/03/2021 13.82 49% 14.72 75%
14/03/2021 20/03/2021 11.43 49% 12.62 75%
21/03/2021 27/03/2021 10.56 49% 10.59 75%
28/03/2021 03/04/2021 7.34 49% 8.21 73%
04/04/2021 10/04/2021 7.17 49% 6.95 75%
11/04/2021 17/04/2021 7.10 46% 7.25 71%

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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