Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 35)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement

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2. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP or people staying longer than 28 days.

3. A four week projection is provided here.

4. Based at Edinburgh University, Strathclyde University Aberdeen University and Public Health Scotland.

5. The UK POLYMOD figures from


7. 10.5281/zenodo.4246047

8. Data is aggregated across the sites to produce a national average wastewater Covid graph. To do this, firstly weekly averages are produced for flow-adjusted Covid in wastewater at each site to avoid giving disproportionate weight to data from more-frequently sampled sites. Then a weighted average of these weekly estimates is produced, weighting the contribution of each site by its population, and comparing this to the overall pattern of Scottish positive case rates.

9. guanine-cytosine content/person

10. WW refers to Covid in wastewater



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