Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 34)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 34)
Footnotes

Footnotes

1. Based on S gene dropout, which is a proxy for the new variant.

2. https://beta.isdscotland.org/find-publications-and-data/population-health/covid-19/covid-19-statistical-report/

3. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP or people staying longer than 28 days.

4. A two week projection is provided here.

5. Based at Edinburgh University, Strathclyde University Aberdeen University and Public Health Scotland.

6. Based on S gene dropout, which is a proxy for the new variant.

7. The analysis of the S gene drop out data uses Lighthouse samples only and the true drop out corresponds to negative on the S gene and Ct values < 30 for at least one of the OR and N genes. A weak positive is negative for S and Ct >= 30 for both OR and N genes; all other Lighthouse samples are labelled S gene positive. Unknown corresponds to individuals who are tested in the NHS labs attached to the hospitals and S Gene dropout status cannot be determined from these samples. The bar charts show the percentage of individuals within each S gene group who have the characteristic. For example the percentage of S gene positive who are in the lowest deprivation group, the percentage of true S gene dropout who are in the lowest deprivation group and the percentage of weak S gene positive who are in the lowest deprivation group. Differences in these percentages indicate subgroups where S gene deletion may be more (or less) common.

8. Based on S gene dropout, which is a proxy for the new variant.

9. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.24.20236661v1

10. 10.5281/zenodo.4246047

11. Cycle Threshold


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot