Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.114)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.


Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 18th November and 25th November 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [3].

Local Authority (LA)

w/e 18th November

w/e 25th

November

Coverage

Aberdeen City

37

38

99 %

Aberdeenshire

23

40

33 %

Angus

33

32

68 %

Argyll and Bute

6

15

23 %

City of Edinburgh

37

51

98 %

Clackmannanshire

20

30

81 %

Dumfries and Galloway

22

30

39 %

Dundee City

41

28

100 %

East Ayrshire

40

33

72 %

East Dunbartonshire

42

57

99 %

East Lothian

29

48

65 %

East Renfrewshire

38

33

95 %

Falkirk

35

36

95 %

Fife

26

33

84 %

Glasgow City

36

46

75 %

Highland

25

18

48 %

Inverclyde

63

28

99 %

Midlothian

35

45

88 %

Moray

38

48

69 %

Na h-Eileanan Siar

4

0 %

North Ayrshire

26

30

92 %

North Lanarkshire

38

45

83 %

Orkney Islands

11

0 %

Perth and Kinross

25

21

45 %

Renfrewshire

32

27

97 %

Scottish Borders

27

54

47 %

Shetland Islands

1

1

29 %

South Ayrshire

40

38

88 %

South Lanarkshire

30

30

76 %

Stirling

12

18

63 %

West Dunbartonshire

32

29

98 %

West Lothian

22

47

95 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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