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Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.112)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 28th October and 4th November 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [4].
Local Authority (LA) w/e 28th October w/e 4th November Coverage
Aberdeen City 54 46 99 %
Aberdeenshire 35 31 41 %
Angus 73 46 68 %
Argyll and Bute 29 9 23 %
City of Edinburgh 49 50 98 %
Clackmannanshire 50 35 92 %
Dumfries and Galloway 19 15 39 %
Dundee City 91 59 100 %
East Ayrshire 34 43 72 %
East Dunbartonshire 35 33 99 %
East Lothian 44 42 74 %
East Renfrewshire 13 16 95 %
Falkirk 42 54 96 %
Fife 38 33 82 %
Glasgow City 24 22 98 %
Highland 49 21 48 %
Inverclyde 42 13 98 %
Midlothian 48 46 88 %
Moray 46 108 70 %
Na h-Eileanan Siar 15 3 21 %
North Ayrshire 26 23 92 %
North Lanarkshire 41 28 94 %
Orkney Islands 13 17 34 %
Perth and Kinross 31 30 38 %
Renfrewshire 52 17 97 %
Scottish Borders 44 30 56 %
Shetland Islands 7 1 29 %
South Ayrshire 47 36 88 %
South Lanarkshire 31 33 90 %
Stirling 15 8 63 %
West Dunbartonshire 31 24 98 %
West Lothian 40 22 88 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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