Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.106)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 5th and 12th August 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1: Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [3].
Local Authority (LA) w/e 5th August w/e 12th August Coverage
Aberdeen City 95 95 99 %
Aberdeenshire 53 53 45 %
Angus 57 82 68 %
Argyll and Bute 12 111 23 %
City of Edinburgh 72 72 98 %
Clackmannanshire 77 55 92 %
Dumfries and Galloway 72 34 37 %
Dundee City 56 91 100 %
East Ayrshire 96 58 69 %
East Dunbartonshire 56 73 99 %
East Lothian 59 66 74 %
East Renfrewshire 69 47 95 %
Falkirk 83 45 96 %
Fife 82 54 84 %
Glasgow City 71 51 98 %
Highland 82 113 40 %
Inverclyde 48 42 98 %
Midlothian 67 120 88 %
Moray 61 57 70 %
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0 %
North Ayrshire 72 49 92 %
North Lanarkshire 66 85 94 %
Orkney Islands 95 34 %
Perth and Kinross 57 16 38 %
Renfrewshire 76 94 97 %
Scottish Borders 29 47 58 %
Shetland Islands 0 %
South Ayrshire 106 55 88 %
South Lanarkshire 66 79 90 %
Stirling 24 65 63 %
West Dunbartonshire 56 45 98 %
West Lothian 59 37 83 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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