Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.102)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 10th June and 17th June 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid-19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [5].
Local Authority (LA) w/e 10th June w/e 17th June Coverage
Aberdeen City 71 198 99 %
Aberdeenshire 55 150 43 %
Angus 59 150 68 %
Argyll and Bute 208 44 23 %
City of Edinburgh 82 162 96 %
Clackmannanshire 38 76 92 %
Dumfries and Galloway 39 86 37 %
Dundee City 71 171 100 %
East Ayrshire 64 201 72 %
East Dunbartonshire 65 120 99 %
East Lothian 67 135 74 %
East Renfrewshire 96 89 %
Falkirk 50 123 96 %
Fife 34 128 84 %
Glasgow City 48 88 98 %
Highland 43 91 40 %
Inverclyde 60 98 92 %
Midlothian 72 180 88 %
Moray 58 929 70 %
Na h-Eileanan Siar 43 58 21 %
North Ayrshire 60 146 92 %
North Lanarkshire 36 62 87 %
Orkney Islands 104 121 34 %
Perth and Kinross 28 69 45 %
Renfrewshire 82 160 57 %
Scottish Borders 96 274 49 %
Shetland Islands 36 0 %
South Ayrshire 67 210 77 %
South Lanarkshire 58 110 81 %
Stirling 29 81 63 %
West Dunbartonshire 52 62 98 %
West Lothian 55 119 84 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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