Publication - Research and analysis

EU workers in Scotland's social care workforce: contribution assessment

Published: 9 Jul 2018

Provides estimated numbers and specific roles of EU staff in Scotland's social care workforce.

EU workers in Scotland's social care workforce: contribution assessment
3. Size of the non-UK EU workforce

3. Size of the non-UK EU workforce

This chapter provides estimates for the size of the non- UK EU workforce. It draws on the survey data, along with population figures from Scottish Social Services Council ( SSSC) for 2016.

Overall size of the non- UK EU workforce

The estimate of the percentage of people employed within adult social care and childcare that are non- UK EU nationals is 5.6%. Overall, there are around 176,000 people working within adult social care and childcare, so the prevalence estimate of 5.6% equates to 9,830 workers. [17]

All estimates based on survey responses are subject to sampling error. Confidence intervals indicate the likely level of precision. The lower confidence interval ( LCI) of the main estimate is 4.5% and upper confidence interval ( UCI) is 6.6%. This equates to between 7,950 and 11,700 workers.

A small proportion (0.2%) of staff were from the Republic of Ireland. Appendix A provides a breakdown of the estimates of the number of workers from the Republic of Ireland.

Sub-sectors

The prevalence of non- UK EU staff within adult social care and childcare differed by sub-sector, ranging from 0.3% for childminding services to 16.5% (+/- 11.3%) for nurse agencies, with the remaining sub-sectors between 3.8% and 6.8%. [18] ( Table 3.1) Among all adult social care sub-sectors (Adult Day Care, Care Homes for Adults, Housing Support/Care at Home and Nurse Agencies) the percentage of non- UK EU staff was 5.5% (+/-1.3%). Among all sub-sectors relating to childcare (Childminding and Day Care of Children) the percentage was 5.9% (+/-1.7%).

In terms of absolute numbers of staff, the sectors with the most non- UK EU staff were Care Home for Adults (3,150), Housing support/Care at Home (2,850), and Day Care of Children (2,290). The sectors with the fewest were Childminding (20) and Adult Day Care (300).

Table 3.1: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by sub-sector [19]

  Adult Day Care Care Home for Adults Childminding Day Care of Children Housing support/
Care at home
Nurse Agency Total All adult social care All child-care
Population figures
Total services 492 1149 5,509 3,710 2,041 71 12,972 3,753 9,219
Average staff per service 15.8 46.7 1.0 9.0 33.8 104.5 13.6 36.7 4.2
Total staff 7,780 53,680 5,510 33,430 68,970 7,420 176,790 137,850 38,940
Survey figures
Total services (unweighted) 117 305 315 360 449 26 1,572 897 675
Total staff (unweighted) 2,304 12,511 335 4,278 17,853 2,718 39,999 35,386 4,613
Average staff per service 19.7 41.0 1.1 11.9 39.8 104.5 25.4 39.4 6.8
Estimates
% of staff from non- UK EU 3.8% 5.9% 0.3% 6.8% 4.1% 16.5% 5.6% 5.5% 5.9%
Total staff from non- UK EU 300 3,150 20 2,290 2,850 1,230 9,830 7,520 2,310
Confidence intervals
Lower % 0.8% 3.6% 0.0% 4.4% 2.5% 5.2% 4.5% 4.2% 4.2%
Upper % 6.9% 8.1% 0.9% 9.3% 5.8% 27.9% 6.6% 6.8% 7.6%
Lower estimate 60 1,940 0 1,460 1,730 380 7,950 5,730 1,640
Upper estimate 530 4,360 50 3,120 3,970 2,070 11,700 9,310 2,970

Employer type

Table 3.2 presents the estimates by employer type. In both percentage and absolute terms, non- UK EU workers were more prevalent in private sector services (6.4% +/- 1.6%; 5,410 staff), than in voluntary sector services (5.4% +/- 1.8%; 2,730) and public sector services (3.7% +/- 2.1%; 1,510). (Here, as throughout the report, differences between sub-groups have been commented upon only where these are statistically significant; that is, where we can be 95% certain that they have not occurred by chance)

Table 3.2: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by employer type [20]

  Public Private Voluntary Total
Population figures
Total services 2,430 8,032 2,510 12,972
Average staff per service 16.9 10.6 20.1 13.6
Total staff 41,030 85,240 50,520 176,790
Survey figures
Total services (unweighted) 278 822 472 1,572
Total staff (unweighted) 7,325 19,900 12,774 39,999
Average staff per service 22.6 11.6 23.6 15.4
Estimates
% of staff from non- UK EU 3.7% 6.4% 5.4% 5.6%
Total staff from non- UK EU 1,510 5,410 2,730 9,830
Confidence intervals
Lower % 1.6% 4.8% 3.6% 4.5%
Upper % 5.8% 7.9% 7.2% 6.6%
Lower estimate 650 4,070 1,800 7,950
Upper estimate 2,360 6,760 3,660 11,700

Types of Staff

Non- UK EU staff were more prevalent among NMC registered nurses, auxiliary staff and care staff/practitioners than managers and other staff. [21] Around 7.3% of NMC registered nurses (+/- 1.2%), 5.9% of care staff/practitioners (+/- 1.1%) and 5.7% of auxiliary staff (+/- 1.1%) were from non- UK EU countries. The corresponding percentage for managers was lower at 3.7% (+/-0.9%). This equates to 8,010 Care Staff, 1,110 Auxiliary Staff, 470 NMC registered nurses and 300 Managers ( Table 3.3).

Table 3.3: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by staff categories [22]

  Auxiliary NMC Registered nurses [23] Care staff/ practitioners (excl. nurses) Managers Others undefined Total
Population figures
Total staff 19,470 6,500 136,920 8,080 5,840 176,790
Survey figures
Total staff (unweighted) 4,444 1,809 30,261 2,411 1,074 39,999
Estimates
% of staff from non- UK EU 5.7% 7.3% 5.9% 3.7% 1.6% 5.6%
Total staff from non- UK EU 1,110 470 8,010 300 100 9,830
Confidence intervals
Lower % 4.6% 6.1% 4.8% 2.8% 1.0% 4.5%
Upper % 6.8% 8.5% 6.9% 4.6% 2.2% 6.6%
Lower estimate 900 390 6,530 230 60 7,950
Upper estimate 1,320 550 9,500 380 130 11,700

Region

In terms of NUTS2 regions, non- UK EU staff account for the highest proportion of care staff in the North East (9.1% +/-4.3%) and the East (7.8% +/- 2%), compared to in Highlands and Islands (3.8% +/-2.7%) and the South West (3.5% +/-1.3%). This corresponds to approximately 5,030 workers in the East, 2,720 in the South West, 1,560 in the North East and 670 in the Highlands and Islands ( Table 3.4).

Table 3.4: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by region [24]

  North East East South West Highlands and Islands Total
Population figures  
Total services 1,262 5,349 4,840 1,517 12,968
Average staff per service 13.6 12.0 16.0 11.5 13.6
Total staff 17,170 64,430 77,660 17,520 176,790
Survey figures  
Total services (unweighted) 151 628 628 165 1,572
Total staff (unweighted) 3,643 13,813 19,192 3,351 39,999
Average staff per service 13.0 13.4 18.7 13.0 15.4
Estimates  
% of staff from non- UK EU 9.1% 7.8% 3.5% 3.8% 5.6%
Total staff from non- UK EU 1,560 5,030 2,720 670 9,830
Confidence intervals  
Lower % 4.8% 5.8% 2.2% 1.1% 4.5%
Upper % 13.4% 9.8% 4.8% 6.6% 6.6%
Lower estimate 820 3760 1680 190 7950
Upper estimate 2300 6300 3760 1160 11700

Urban/Rural classification

Urban rural threefold classification was calculated using postcode data. This was missing in 346 cases. The proportion of non- UK EU staff in the categories of social services sampled is 4.9% (+/- 4.9%) in remote rural Scotland, 5.6% (+/- 3.5%) in accessible rural Scotland, and 5.7% (+/- 1.4%) in the rest of Scotland. This is equivalent to 8,910 workers in the rest of Scotland, 780 in accessible rural areas and 320 in remote rural areas ( Table 3.5).

Table 3.5: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by urban rural threefold classification [25]

  Rest of Scotland Accessible Rural Remote Rural Missing data Total
Population figures  
Total services 10,618 1,525 825 0 12,968
Average staff per service 14.7 9.1 7.9 0.0 13.6
Total staff 156,360 13,890 6,520 0 176,790
Survey figures  
Total services (unweighted) 1,010 147 69 346 1,572
Total staff (unweighted) 34,001 3,866 871 1,261 39,999
Average staff per service 29.3 21.0 10.5 1.8 15.4
Estimates  
% of staff from non- UK EU 5.7% 5.6% 4.9% NA 5.6%
Total staff from non- UK EU 8,910 780 320 NA 9,820
Confidence intervals  
Lower % 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% NA 4.5%
Upper % 7.1% 9.2% 9.8% NA 6.6%
Lower estimate 6,780 290 0 NA 7,950
Upper estimate 11,030 1,270 640 NA 11,700

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