EU workers in Scotland's social care workforce: contribution assessment
Provides estimated numbers and specific roles of EU staff in Scotland's social care workforce.
3. Size of the non-UK EU workforce
This chapter provides estimates for the size of the non- UK EU workforce. It draws on the survey data, along with population figures from Scottish Social Services Council ( SSSC) for 2016.
Overall size of the non- UK EU workforce
The estimate of the percentage of people employed within adult social care and childcare that are non- UK EU nationals is 5.6%. Overall, there are around 176,000 people working within adult social care and childcare, so the prevalence estimate of 5.6% equates to 9,830 workers. [17]
All estimates based on survey responses are subject to sampling error. Confidence intervals indicate the likely level of precision. The lower confidence interval ( LCI) of the main estimate is 4.5% and upper confidence interval ( UCI) is 6.6%. This equates to between 7,950 and 11,700 workers.
A small proportion (0.2%) of staff were from the Republic of Ireland. Appendix A provides a breakdown of the estimates of the number of workers from the Republic of Ireland.
Sub-sectors
The prevalence of non- UK EU staff within adult social care and childcare differed by sub-sector, ranging from 0.3% for childminding services to 16.5% (+/- 11.3%) for nurse agencies, with the remaining sub-sectors between 3.8% and 6.8%. [18] ( Table 3.1) Among all adult social care sub-sectors (Adult Day Care, Care Homes for Adults, Housing Support/Care at Home and Nurse Agencies) the percentage of non- UK EU staff was 5.5% (+/-1.3%). Among all sub-sectors relating to childcare (Childminding and Day Care of Children) the percentage was 5.9% (+/-1.7%).
In terms of absolute numbers of staff, the sectors with the most non- UK EU staff were Care Home for Adults (3,150), Housing support/Care at Home (2,850), and Day Care of Children (2,290). The sectors with the fewest were Childminding (20) and Adult Day Care (300).
Table 3.1: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by sub-sector [19]
| Adult Day Care | Care Home for Adults | Childminding | Day Care of Children | Housing support/ Care at home |
Nurse Agency | Total | All adult social care | All child-care | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | |||||||||
| Total services | 492 | 1149 | 5,509 | 3,710 | 2,041 | 71 | 12,972 | 3,753 | 9,219 |
| Average staff per service | 15.8 | 46.7 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 33.8 | 104.5 | 13.6 | 36.7 | 4.2 |
| Total staff | 7,780 | 53,680 | 5,510 | 33,430 | 68,970 | 7,420 | 176,790 | 137,850 | 38,940 |
| Survey figures | |||||||||
| Total services (unweighted) | 117 | 305 | 315 | 360 | 449 | 26 | 1,572 | 897 | 675 |
| Total staff (unweighted) | 2,304 | 12,511 | 335 | 4,278 | 17,853 | 2,718 | 39,999 | 35,386 | 4,613 |
| Average staff per service | 19.7 | 41.0 | 1.1 | 11.9 | 39.8 | 104.5 | 25.4 | 39.4 | 6.8 |
| Estimates | |||||||||
| % of staff from non- UK EU | 3.8% | 5.9% | 0.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 16.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% |
| Total staff from non- UK EU | 300 | 3,150 | 20 | 2,290 | 2,850 | 1,230 | 9,830 | 7,520 | 2,310 |
| Confidence intervals | |||||||||
| Lower % | 0.8% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Upper % | 6.9% | 8.1% | 0.9% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 27.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% |
| Lower estimate | 60 | 1,940 | 0 | 1,460 | 1,730 | 380 | 7,950 | 5,730 | 1,640 |
| Upper estimate | 530 | 4,360 | 50 | 3,120 | 3,970 | 2,070 | 11,700 | 9,310 | 2,970 |
Employer type
Table 3.2 presents the estimates by employer type. In both percentage and absolute terms, non- UK EU workers were more prevalent in private sector services (6.4% +/- 1.6%; 5,410 staff), than in voluntary sector services (5.4% +/- 1.8%; 2,730) and public sector services (3.7% +/- 2.1%; 1,510). (Here, as throughout the report, differences between sub-groups have been commented upon only where these are statistically significant; that is, where we can be 95% certain that they have not occurred by chance)
Table 3.2: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by employer type [20]
| Public | Private | Voluntary | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | ||||
| Total services | 2,430 | 8,032 | 2,510 | 12,972 |
| Average staff per service | 16.9 | 10.6 | 20.1 | 13.6 |
| Total staff | 41,030 | 85,240 | 50,520 | 176,790 |
| Survey figures | ||||
| Total services (unweighted) | 278 | 822 | 472 | 1,572 |
| Total staff (unweighted) | 7,325 | 19,900 | 12,774 | 39,999 |
| Average staff per service | 22.6 | 11.6 | 23.6 | 15.4 |
| Estimates | ||||
| % of staff from non- UK EU | 3.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| Total staff from non- UK EU | 1,510 | 5,410 | 2,730 | 9,830 |
| Confidence intervals | ||||
| Lower % | 1.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% |
| Upper % | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% |
| Lower estimate | 650 | 4,070 | 1,800 | 7,950 |
| Upper estimate | 2,360 | 6,760 | 3,660 | 11,700 |
Types of Staff
Non- UK EU staff were more prevalent among NMC registered nurses, auxiliary staff and care staff/practitioners than managers and other staff. [21] Around 7.3% of NMC registered nurses (+/- 1.2%), 5.9% of care staff/practitioners (+/- 1.1%) and 5.7% of auxiliary staff (+/- 1.1%) were from non- UK EU countries. The corresponding percentage for managers was lower at 3.7% (+/-0.9%). This equates to 8,010 Care Staff, 1,110 Auxiliary Staff, 470 NMC registered nurses and 300 Managers ( Table 3.3).
Table 3.3: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by staff categories [22]
| Auxiliary | NMC Registered nurses [23] | Care staff/ practitioners (excl. nurses) | Managers | Others undefined | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | ||||||
| Total staff | 19,470 | 6,500 | 136,920 | 8,080 | 5,840 | 176,790 |
| Survey figures | ||||||
| Total staff (unweighted) | 4,444 | 1,809 | 30,261 | 2,411 | 1,074 | 39,999 |
| Estimates | ||||||
| % of staff from non- UK EU | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 5.6% |
| Total staff from non- UK EU | 1,110 | 470 | 8,010 | 300 | 100 | 9,830 |
| Confidence intervals | ||||||
| Lower % | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 4.5% |
| Upper % | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 6.6% |
| Lower estimate | 900 | 390 | 6,530 | 230 | 60 | 7,950 |
| Upper estimate | 1,320 | 550 | 9,500 | 380 | 130 | 11,700 |
Region
In terms of NUTS2 regions, non- UK EU staff account for the highest proportion of care staff in the North East (9.1% +/-4.3%) and the East (7.8% +/- 2%), compared to in Highlands and Islands (3.8% +/-2.7%) and the South West (3.5% +/-1.3%). This corresponds to approximately 5,030 workers in the East, 2,720 in the South West, 1,560 in the North East and 670 in the Highlands and Islands ( Table 3.4).
Table 3.4: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by region [24]
| North East | East | South West | Highlands and Islands | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | |||||
| Total services | 1,262 | 5,349 | 4,840 | 1,517 | 12,968 |
| Average staff per service | 13.6 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 11.5 | 13.6 |
| Total staff | 17,170 | 64,430 | 77,660 | 17,520 | 176,790 |
| Survey figures | |||||
| Total services (unweighted) | 151 | 628 | 628 | 165 | 1,572 |
| Total staff (unweighted) | 3,643 | 13,813 | 19,192 | 3,351 | 39,999 |
| Average staff per service | 13.0 | 13.4 | 18.7 | 13.0 | 15.4 |
| Estimates | |||||
| % of staff from non- UK EU | 9.1% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| Total staff from non- UK EU | 1,560 | 5,030 | 2,720 | 670 | 9,830 |
| Confidence intervals | |||||
| Lower % | 4.8% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 4.5% |
| Upper % | 13.4% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Lower estimate | 820 | 3760 | 1680 | 190 | 7950 |
| Upper estimate | 2300 | 6300 | 3760 | 1160 | 11700 |
Urban/Rural classification
Urban rural threefold classification was calculated using postcode data. This was missing in 346 cases. The proportion of non- UK EU staff in the categories of social services sampled is 4.9% (+/- 4.9%) in remote rural Scotland, 5.6% (+/- 3.5%) in accessible rural Scotland, and 5.7% (+/- 1.4%) in the rest of Scotland. This is equivalent to 8,910 workers in the rest of Scotland, 780 in accessible rural areas and 320 in remote rural areas ( Table 3.5).
Table 3.5: Estimates of proportion of non- UK EU staff by urban rural threefold classification [25]
| Rest of Scotland | Accessible Rural | Remote Rural | Missing data | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population figures | |||||
| Total services | 10,618 | 1,525 | 825 | 0 | 12,968 |
| Average staff per service | 14.7 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 13.6 |
| Total staff | 156,360 | 13,890 | 6,520 | 0 | 176,790 |
| Survey figures | |||||
| Total services (unweighted) | 1,010 | 147 | 69 | 346 | 1,572 |
| Total staff (unweighted) | 34,001 | 3,866 | 871 | 1,261 | 39,999 |
| Average staff per service | 29.3 | 21.0 | 10.5 | 1.8 | 15.4 |
| Estimates | |||||
| % of staff from non- UK EU | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | NA | 5.6% |
| Total staff from non- UK EU | 8,910 | 780 | 320 | NA | 9,820 |
| Confidence intervals | |||||
| Lower % | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% | NA | 4.5% |
| Upper % | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | NA | 6.6% |
| Lower estimate | 6,780 | 290 | 0 | NA | 7,950 |
| Upper estimate | 11,030 | 1,270 | 640 | NA | 11,700 |
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