The Contribution Of EU Workers In The Social Care Workforce In Scotland 2022

Scottish Government commissioned Ipsos to carry out a repeat of a 2017 study into the impact of Brexit on the UK workforce.


3. Size of the EU workforce

This chapter provides estimates for the size of the EU workforce. It draws on the survey data, along with population figures from Scottish Social Services Council (SSSC) for 2020[10].

Overall size of the EU workforce

The estimate of the percentage of people employed within adult social care and childcare that were EU nationals was 5.0%. (In 2018, the corresponding figure was 5.6%).

Overall, there were around 185,450 people working within adult social care and childcare, so the prevalence estimate of 5.0% equates to 9,320 workers.

All estimates based on survey responses are subject to sampling error. Confidence intervals indicate the likely level of precision. The lower confidence interval (LCI) of the main estimate is 4.0% and upper confidence interval (UCI) is 6.2%. This equates to between 7,370 and 11,280 workers.

A small proportion (0.3%) of staff were from the Republic of Ireland. Appendix A provides a breakdown of the estimates of the number of workers from the Republic of Ireland.

Sub-sectors

The prevalence of EU staff within adult social care and childcare differed by sub-sector, ranging from 0.5% for childminding services to 12.4% for nurse agencies, with the remaining sub-sectors between 4.1% and 6.2% (Table 3.1). Among all adult social care sub-sectors (Adult Day Care, Care Homes for Adults, Housing Support/Care at Home and Nurse Agencies) the percentage of EU staff was 5.4% (+/-1.3%) compared to 5.5% in 2018. Among all sub-sectors relating to childcare (Childminding and Day Care of Children) the percentage was 3.8% (+/-1.3%), compared to 5.9% in 2018.

In terms of absolute numbers of staff, the sectors with the most EU staff were Care Home for Adults (3,290), Housing support/Care at Home (3,090), and Day Care of Children (1,590). The sectors with the fewest were Childminding (20) and Adult Day Care (920).

Among the 'other' sub-sectors combined (Adoption services, Fostering services, Offender Accommodation Service, Residential Child Care, School Care Accommodation combined) the prevalence of EU staff was 4.3% (+/- 3.6%)[11].

Table 3.1: Estimates of proportion of EU staff by sub-sector [12]
  Adult Day Care Care Home for Adults Childminding Day Care of Children Housing support/
Care at home
Nurse Agency Total All adult social care All child-care
Population figures                  
Total services 420 1,072 4,236 3,554 2,093 112 11,487 3,697 7,790
Average staff per service 15.8 49 1.02 11 36 75.1 16.1 38.6 5.5
Total staff 6,650 52,920 4,300 38,300 74,870 8,410 185,450 142,850 42,600
Survey figures                  
Total services (unweighted) 106 255 354 394 325 7 1441 693 748
Total staff (unweighted) 2,106 11,261 407 4,916 14,318 526 33,534 28,211 5,323
Average staff per service 19.9 44.2 1.1 12.5 44.1 75.1 23.3 40.7 7.1
Estimates                  
% of staff from EU 4.4% 6.2% 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 12.4% 5.0% 5.4% 3.8%
Total staff from EU 290 3290 20 1590 3090 1040 9,320 7,710 1,610
2018 estimate 3.8% 5.9% 0.3% 6.8% 4.1% 16.5% 5.6% 5.5% 5.9%
Confidence intervals                  
Lower % 1.0% 3.6% 0.0% 2.3% 2.1% 0.0% 4.0% 3.9% 2.5%
Upper % 7.7% 8.8% 1.2% 6.0% 6.1% 36.0% 6.1% 6.9% 5.1%
Lower estimate 70 1,920 0 880 1600 0 7,370 5,550 1,060
Upper estimate 510 4,660 50 2,300 4,580 3,020 11,280 9,880 2,160

Employer type

Table 3.2 presents the estimates by employer type. In percentage terms, EU workers were more prevalent in private sector services (5.4% +/- 1.4%) and voluntary sector services (5.3% +/- 1.8%) than in public sector services (3.1% +/- 2.4%). Here, as throughout the report, differences between sub-groups have been commented upon only where these are statistically significant; that is, where we can be 95% certain that they have not occurred by chance.

Table 3.2: Estimates of proportion of EU staff by employer type [13]
  Public Private Voluntary Total
Population figures        
Total services 2,577 6,897 2,013 11,487
Average staff per service 19.2 12.2 25.7 16.1
Total staff 49,380 84,260 51,810 185,450
Survey figures        
Total services (unweighted) 180 827 434 1,441
Total staff (unweighted) 5,468 16,829 11,237 33,534
Average staff per service 30.4 20.3 25.9 23.3
Estimates        
% of staff from EU 3.1% 5.4% 5.3% 5.0%
Total staff from EU 1,530 4,550 2,750 9,320
2018 estimate 3.7% 6.4% 5.4% 5.6%
Confidence intervals        
Lower % 0.7% 4.0% 3.4% 4.0%
Upper % 5.6% 6.8% 7.2% 6.1%
Lower estimate 330 3340 1790 7380
Upper estimate 2740 5760 3710 11270

Types of Staff

EU staff were more prevalent among auxiliary staff and NMC registered nurses than care staff/practitioners, managers and other staff[14]. Around 6.7% of auxiliary staff (+/- 1.2%) and 5.7% of NMC registered nurses (+/- 1.1%), were from EU countries, compared to 5.0% of care staff/practitioners (+/- 1.0%) and 3.5% of mangers (+/- 0.9%).This equates to 7,160 Care Staff, 1,190 Auxiliary Staff, 640 NMC registered nurses and 280 Managers (Table 3.3).

Table 3.3: Estimates of proportion of EU staff by staff categories [15]
  Auxiliary NMC Registered nurses[16] Care staff/ practitioners (excl. nurses) Managers Others undefined Total
Population figures            
Total staff 17,640 11,290 143,340 7,950 4,310 185,460
Survey figures            
Total staff (unweighted) 4,076 910 25,234 2,092 1,222 33,534
Estimates            
% of staff from EU 6.7% 5.7% 5.0% 3.5% 3.3% 5.0%
Total staff from EU 1,190 640 7,160 280 140 9,320
2018 Estimate 5.7% 7.3% 5.9% 3.7% 1.6% 5.6%
Confidence intervals            
Lower % 5.5% 4.6% 3.9% 2.6% 2.4% 4.0%
Upper % 7.9% 6.8% 6.0% 4.4% 4.2% 6.1%
Lower estimate 980 520 5,650 210 100 7,370
Upper estimate 1,410 770 8,670 360 180 11,280

Region

In terms of NUTS2 regions, EU staff account for the highest proportion of care staff in the North East (6.6% +/-3.8%) and the East (6.6% +/- 1.8%), compared to in the Highlands and Islands (4.5% +/-2.7%) and South West (3.4% +/-1.5%). This corresponds to approximately 4,700 workers in the East, 2,760 in the South West, 1,020 in the North East and 780 in the Highlands and Islands (Table 3.4).

Table 3.4: Estimates of proportion of EU staff by region [17]
  North East East South West Highlands and Islands Total
Population figures          
Total services 1,141 4,736 4,276 1,334 11,487
Average staff per service 13.6 15.1 18.9 12.9 16.1
Total staff 15,560 71,690 80,960 17,240 185,450
Survey figures          
Total services (unweighted) 140 594 510 197 1,441
Total staff (unweighted) 3,160 12,845 13,369 4,160 33,534
Average staff per service 22.6 21.6 26.2 21.1 23.3
Estimates          
% of staff from EU 6.6% 6.6% 3.4% 4.5% 5.0%
Total staff from EU 1,020 4,700 2,760 780 9,320
2018 Estimate 9.1% 7.8% 3.5% 3.8% 5.6%
Confidence intervals          
Lower % 2.7% 4.7% 1.9% 1.8% 4.0%
Upper % 10.4% 8.4% 4.9% 7.2% 6.1%
Lower estimate 430 3,370 1,570 320 7,380
Upper estimate 1,620 6,020 3,950 1,230 11,270

Urban/Rural classification

Urban/rural threefold classification was calculated using postcode data. This was missing in 327 cases. The proportion of EU staff in the categories of social services sampled is 9.7% (+/- 5.7%) in remote rural Scotland, 4.6% (+/- 3.0%) in accessible rural Scotland, and 4.8% (+/- 1.1%) in the rest of Scotland. This is equivalent to 7,100 workers in the rest of Scotland, 570 in accessible rural areas and 660 in remote rural areas (Table 3.5).

Table 3.5: Estimate of proportion of EU staff by urban rural threefold classification [18]
  Rest of Scotland Accessible Rural Remote Rural Missing data Total
Population figures          
Total services 9,012 1,373 748 354 11,487
Average staff per service 17.3 9.1 9.0 29.5 16.1
Total staff 155,690 12,540 6,760 10,460 185,450
Survey figures          
Total services (unweighted) 1,136 167 89 49 1,441
Total staff (unweighted) 27,147 2,976 1,640 1,771 33,534
Average staff per service 23.9 17.8 18.4 36.1 23.3
Estimates          
% of staff from EU 4.8% 4.6% 9.7% NA 5.0%
Total staff from EU 7,510 570 660 NA 9,320
2018 Estimates 5.7% 5.6% 4.9% NA 5.6%
Confidence intervals          
Lower % 3.7% 1.6% 3.9% NA 4.0%
Upper % 6.0% 7.5% 15.5% NA 6.1%
Lower estimate 5,710 200 270 NA 7,380
Upper estimate 9,310 940 1,050 NA 11,270

Summary

The percentage of people employed within adult social care and childcare is 5.0%. This equates to around 9,320 workers. All estimates are subject to sampling error and confidence intervals indicate the likely level of precision. The lower confidence interval (LCI) of the main estimate is 4.0% and upper confidence interval (UCI) is 6.1%.

The corresponding figure from the 2018 study was 5.6% and the 0.6% decrease is not statistically significant.

There has been a larger drop in percentage terms among the childcare sector (3.8% from 5.9%) than in adult social care (5.4% from 5.5%).

A small proportion (0.3%) of staff were from the Republic of Ireland.

Contact

Email: Jamie.Stewart@gov.scot

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