Commissioner for Fair Access annual report 2019: building on progress towards fair access

Annex

Entrants

Table 1: Scottish domiciled undergraduate entrants to Higher Education

Source: Scottish Funding Council

Statistic	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18
Entrants from SIMD20	14,730	14,440	14,740	14,920	15,995
% SIMD20	17.2%	17.5%	17.7%	17.7%	18.9%

Table 2: Scottish domiciled undergraduate entrants to Higher Education at Scottish colleges

Source: Scottish Funding Council

Statistic	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18
Entrants from SIMD20	8,060	8,160	8,380	8,565	8,780
Total entrants with known SIMD	35,945	35,595	36,630	36,920	36,145
% SIMD20	22.4%	22.9%	22.9%	23.2%	24.3%

Table 3: Scottish domiciled first degree entrants to Scottish HEIs by mode of study

Source: HESA Student Data, CFA Analysis

Mode	Statistic	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18
Full-time	Entrants from SIMD20	3,850	3,965	4,015	3,975	4,650
	Total entrants with known SIMD	28,205	28,540	28,620	28,785	29,720
	% SIMD20	13.7%	13.9%	14.0%	13.8%	15.6%
Part-time	Entrants from SIMD20	845	745	975	1,030	1,085
	Total entrants with known SIMD	5,245	5,005	5,820	6,270	6,690
	% SIMD20	16.1%	14.9%	16.8%	16.4%	16.2%

Note: Figures may not exactly match official published figures (see methodological note)

Table 4: Scottish domiciled full-time first degree entrants to Scottish HEIs reporting care experience, 2013-14 to 2017-18

Source: Scottish Funding Council

Statistic	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18
Care experienced entrants	145	170	160	170	255
Total entrants	28,285	28,640	28,770	28,885	29,880
% Care experienced	0.5%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.8%

Table 5: Scottish domiciled full-time first degree entrants to Scottish HEIs by HEI

Source: Scottish Funding Council

Higher Education Institution	Percentage SIMD20
	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18
The University of Aberdeen	4.3%	5.1%	6.0%
Abertay University	16.7%	15.1%	19.1%
University of Dundee	14.3%	15.5%	15.8%
The University of Edinburgh	5.6%	6.4%	8.1%
Edinburgh Napier University	10.7%	10.7%	10.9%
University of Glasgow	12.1%	12.3%	12.3%
Glasgow Caledonian University	22.6%	20.9%	23.5%
Glasgow School of Art	14.6%	21.1%	13.9%
Heriot-Watt University Edinburgh	9.8%	8.5%	11.2%
University of the Highlands and Islands	8.0%	7.3%	8.3%
Queen Margaret University Edinburgh	9.1%	9.1%	9.9%
Royal Conservatoire of Scotland	13.1%	13.3%	13.2%
Robert Gordon University	6.7%	6.4%	6.5%
Scotland's Rural College	8.3%	7.5%	10.4%
University of St Andrews	5.1%	5.5%	7.5%
The University of Stirling	12.3%	12.0%	15.9%
The University of Strathclyde	13.7%	14.5%	16.6%
University of the West of Scotland	27.5%	27.5%	29.4%

Retention

Table 6: Scottish domiciled full-time first degree entrants returning to study in year 2 Source: Scottish Funding Council

Statistic	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18
Overall retention rate	91.7%	91.4%	91.3%	91.8%	92.5%
SIMD Q1 retention rate	87.8%	88.2%	87.1%	87.4%	89.4%
Care-experienced retention rate	-	85.5%	85.2%	87.0%	87.2%

Graduate outcomes (destinations) are not included since publication of the HESA Destination of Leavers of Higher Education (DLHE) survey has ceased (the final published statistics on 2016/17 leavers) following a major review of these statistics. Data for the new Graduate Outcomes Survey is due to be published in Spring 2020 and will not be comparable with previous published figures: graduates will be surveyed 15 months after finishing their studies, compared to the 6 month period previously used in the DLHE.

Applicants, offers and acceptances

Table 7: Scottish domiciled applicants (18 year-olds) to Scottish HEIs by applicant cycle

Source: UCAS Sex, area background and ethnic group undergraduate reports (2018; 2016), CFA Analysis

Statistic	SIMD quintile	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
June deadline applicants	Q1	1,740	1,995	1,935	2,025	1,995	1,915
	Q2	2,515	2,605	2,670	2,665	2,565	2,450
	Q3	3,585	3,650	3,735	3,515	3,445	3,305
	Q4	4,680	4,720	4,750	4,705	4,545	4,370
	Q5	6,335	6,230	6,280	6,160	6,145	5,960
Offers	Q1	4,770	5,700	5,280	5,350	6,025	6,070
	Q2	6,810	7,770	7,515	7,475	7,605	7,635
	Q3	9,100	9,680	9,590	8,795	8,880	8,590
	Q4	12,135	12,805	12,700	12,125	11,855	11,720
	Q5	16,965	17,595	17,470	16,730	16,965	16,535
Offer Rate	Q1	62.2%	63.6%	61.2%	58.4%	66.7%	70.4%
	Q2	61.5%	66.6%	62.8%	61.9%	65.9%	69.0%
	Q3	58.2%	60.0%	57.5%	56.5%	58.4%	58.5%
	Q4	59.0%	61.6%	60.4%	58.3%	58.7%	60.2%
	Q5	61.7%	64.0%	63.1%	61.6%	62.6%	62.6%
June deadline acceptances	Q1	1,115	1,215	1,115	1,215	1,290	1,370
	Q2	1,660	1,735	1,765	1,800	1,815	1,815
	Q3	2,310	2,405	2,395	2,355	2,315	2,325
	Q4	3,170	3,210	3,240	3,195	3,190	3,200
	Q5	4,470	4,380	4,390	4,415	4,485	4,470
Acceptance rate	Q1	64.1%	60.9%	57.6%	60.0%	64.7%	71.5%
	Q2	66.0%	66.6%	66.1%	67.5%	70.8%	74.1%
	Q3	64.4%	65.9%	64.1%	67.0%	67.2%	70.3%
	Q4	67.7%	68.0%	68.2%	67.9%	70.2%	73.2%
	Q5	70.6%	70.3%	69.9%	71.7%	73.0%	75.0%
Acceptances	Q1	1,235	1,305	1,215	1,315	1,405	1,450
	Q2	1,835	1,845	1,935	1,960	1,955	1,965
	Q3	2,585	2,530	2,685	2,610	2,540	2,525
	Q4	3,470	3,380	3,560	3,555	3,505	3,515
	Q5	4,760	4,605	4,685	4,705	4,800	4,735
Entry rate	Q1	9.4%	9.9%	9.5%	10.6%	12.1%	12.7%
	Q2	15.7%	15.9%	17.0%	17.6%	18.3%	18.6%
	Q3	21.7%	21.4%	23.1%	23.1%	23.4%	24.1%
	Q4	28.0%	27.3%	29.1%	29.5%	30.0%	31.3%
	Q5	38.2%	37.2%	38.4%	39.4%	38.4%	39.7%

Note: Figures may not exactly match official published figures (see methodological note)

Table 8: Scottish domiciled applicants (all ages) to Scottish HEIs by applicant cycle

Source: UCAS Sex, area background and ethnic group undergraduate reports (2018; 2016), CFA Analysis

Statistic	SIMD quintile	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
June deadline applicants	Q1	6,190	6,600	7,240	7,460	7,515	7,495
	Q2	6,740	7,050	7,930	8,015	7,730	7,865
	Q3	8,185	8,410	9,265	9,360	9,020	8,975
	Q4	9,375	9,515	10,545	10,765	10,765	10,545
	Q5	11,530	11,470	12,575	12,755	12,935	12,920
Offer rate	Q1	51.3%	50.4%	46.8%	46.5%	51.0%	54.0%
	Q2	51.8%	53.7%	49.6%	49.5%	52.5%	53.8%
	Q3	50.5%	51.9%	48.1%	46.9%	49.1%	50.0%
	Q4	52.6%	54.8%	51.4%	50.1%	50.2%	52.1%
	Q5	55.2%	56.9%	54.1%	53.3%	54.1%	54.7%
June deadline acceptances	Q1	3,610	3,850	4,065	4,205	4,625	4,860
	Q2	4,015	4,305	4,750	4,850	5,000	5,090
	Q3	4,880	5,160	5,510	5,705	5,585	5,705
	Q4	5,920	6,030	6,580	6,655	6,850	6,995
	Q5	7,475	7,520	8,075	8,305	8,665	8,800
Acceptance rate	Q1	58.3%	58.3%	56.1%	56.4%	61.5%	64.8%
	Q2	59.6%	61.1%	59.9%	60.5%	64.7%	64.7%
	Q3	59.6%	61.4%	59.5%	61.0%	61.9%	63.6%
	Q4	63.1%	63.4%	62.4%	61.8%	63.6%	66.3%
	Q5	64.8%	65.6%	64.2%	65.1%	67.0%	68.1%

Note: Figures may not exactly match official published figures (see methodological note)

School attainment

Attainment statistics below focus on SCQF levels 6 and 7, since these are typically the level of qualification required to enter most undergraduate courses at Scottish institutions.

Table 9: Percentage of school leavers by total qualifications achieved, by SIMD quintile

Source: Attainment and Leavers Destinations 2017/18, Scottish Government

Total qualifications achieved	SIMD quintile	Percentage of leavers
		2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17	2017-18
1 or more passes at SCQF Level 6 or better	Q1	34.9	38.5	41.2	42.7	43.0	44.4
	Q2	45.0	49.1	50.6	52.2	52.4	52.8
	Q3	55.8	57.2	60.3	62.2	62.0	62.5
	Q4	65.7	66.9	69.2	71.1	70.5	70.5
	Q5	77.3	79.1	80.3	81.2	80.6	81.8
	All	55.8	58.1	60.2	61.7	61.2	62.2
1 or more passes at SCQF Level 7 or better	Q1	6.8	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.6	9.1
	Q2	10.6	12.0	11.7	12.5	12.7	13.4
	Q3	16.0	17.2	17.6	17.9	18.8	19.4
	Q4	22.6	22.5	23.5	23.9	24.1	24.9
	Q5	32.2	32.4	33.7	33.9	33.8	34.7
	All	17.6	18.3	18.8	19.1	19.3	20.2

Methodological note

Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)

The Commission on Widening Access defined entrants from deprived backgrounds as entrants from the bottom 20% of areas according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (i.e. 'SIMD 20', 'SIMD quintile 1' or 'SIMD Q1' areas). This analysis considers SIMD to define those from deprived areas. SIMD data has been updated at various points in time, most recently 2009, 2012 and 2016. 2018 published data is used for cycles 2017 and 2018 throughout. 2016 published data is used for cycles 2013-2016. This ensures the version of SIMD used for the purposes of this analysis is consistent with the version that was available to institutions at the start of the application cycle and enables comparison with the discussion paper 'UCAS applications, offers and acceptances'. However, this means that figures used throughout this analysis may not exactly match published figures, due to applying a different version of SIMD data, or in the way the data is applied to student records. Outlined below is the difference in methodology (where appropriate) to the published statistics, by data provider.

Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS)

When a new version of SIMD is published, UCAS has historically applied this version to latest statistics, as well as statistics relating to previous years in time-series in the current publication. As a result of this, UCAS applied a SIMD version that was not available to institutions at the time of application for statistics referring to the 2016 cycle (and previous cycles) published in the 2018 cycle data. For this reason, we collate UCAS data for 2017 and 2018 cycles from the 2018 cycle data (using SIMD 2016), and data for previous years from the 2016 cycle data (using SIMD 2012). This also coheres with the data published for cycles up to and including 2016 in the 'UCAS applications, offers and acceptances' discussion paper.

Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

Beginning January 2019, HESA have published high-level figures on the number of full-time first degree entrants to Scottish HEIs from SIMD 20 areas across the last 5 years. The methodology used in the analysis in this report adheres to the HESA methodology from 2016/17 academic year onwards, but uses a different postcode lookup file to determine SIMD quintiles for previous years, resulting in slightly different numbers for earlier years.

Scottish Funding Council (SFC)

Figures published by SFC differ in the methodology used in this analysis for various reasons: SFC figures use a population-weighted SIMD, rather than the standard SIMD methodology adopted by the Scottish Government; SFC use different postcode lookup files and treats postcode geography slightly differently to this analysis; this analysis uses the standard population of students as defined by HESA, whereas SFC has a different definition for the student population.

Age

For Scottish domiciled applicants, UCAS records age as the age of the applicant on February 28th in the year after application. For example, in the 2016 applicant cycle, where the majority of those placed will enter university in the academic year 2016/17, an applicant's age at 28th February 2017 is recorded.