Publication - Strategy/plan

Climate Ready Scotland: climate change adaptation programme 2019-2024

Published: 23 Sep 2019
Directorate:
Energy and Climate Change Directorate
Part of:
Environment and climate change
ISBN:
9781839601217

A five year programme to prepare Scotland for the challenges we will face as our climate continues to change.

229 page PDF

22.4 MB

229 page PDF

22.4 MB

Contents
Climate Ready Scotland: climate change adaptation programme 2019-2024
Annex 2: UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18)

229 page PDF

22.4 MB

Annex 2: UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18)

Scotland’s Climate Projections: Summer and Winter Changes by 2070
Season Emissions Pathway 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
Rainfall*
Summer Low (RCP 2.6) -37% -11% 19%
Summer High (RCP 8.5) -46% -14% 21%
Winter Low (RCP 2.6) -21% 8% 35%
Winter High (RCP 8.5) -14% 18 52
Temperature
Summer  Low (RCP 2.6) -0.1°C 1.4°C 2.9°C
Summer  High (RCP 8.5) 0.6°C 2.6°C 4.6°C
Winter  Low (RCP 2.6) -0.6°C 1.0°C 2.5°C
Winter High (RCP 8.5) 0.3°C 2.2°C 4.3°C

* Negative percentages indicate drier conditions, positive percentages indicate wetter conditions.

Scotland’s climate projections are taken from the UKCP18 Climate Projections.
Met Office © Crown Copyright 2018

The UKCP18 Climate Projections provide probability ranges for future climate change. The figures shown in the 50th percentile column are the central estimates. Figures shown in the 10th and 90th percentile columns show the ‘very likely’ range of change. This means the change is very likely to be above the 10th percentile value and very likely be below the 90th percentile value.


Contact

Email: roddy.maclean@gov.scot