Attainment Scotland Fund evaluation: reporting on National Improvement Framework attainment and health and wellbeing measures 2025

Section 3

Conclusion and Discussion

This report seeks to assess the extent to which the Attainment Scotland Fund has contributed to a closing of the attainment gap between children and young people living in the most and least deprived areas using the 13 key NIF attainment and health and wellbeing measures.

The COVID-19 pandemic and cost of living crisis have exacerbated poverty, making the targeted support through the Scottish Attainment Challenge all the more important to children and young people. Even though this is the case, at the national level there are continued indications of progress.

The analysis presented indicates that, of the 12^[18] measures considered in this report where there is available, comparable data, the poverty-related attainment gap has narrowed in 7 measures and widened in 5, between 2016/17 and 2023/24. Of the measures that have narrowed, ACEL data shows consistent, positive improvement in attainment in primary and secondary (S3) levels, while participation and positive destination data continue to show strong progress. The five measures that widened in this period relate to National Qualifications in the Senior Phase and attendance data.

Of particular note is the upward trend in the proportion of pupils in primary and secondary schools achieving the expected Curriculum for Excellence Levels (ACEL). Attainment as measured by ACEL has increased for both the least and most deprived pupils in primary schools, with the gap in Primary Literacy between school pupils in the most deprived and least deprived areas narrowing to the lowest ever level. For S3 pupils, the poverty-related attainment gap is at its narrowest ever in both Literacy and Numeracy.

Analysis of ACEL data by pupil characteristics shows that progress may differ by characteristic and age/stage. Analysis by sex shows that the poverty-related attainment gap at Primary level (P1, P4 and P7 combined) and S3 is wider for males than it is for females, apart from S3 Numeracy where the gap is the same. However, the data show that the gap has narrowed at different rates for males and females, with the poverty-related gap closing by a higher percentage point for females in primary literacy and numeracy between 2016/17 and 2023/24 and closing by a higher percentage point for males in secondary literacy and numeracy.

Measures of participation and positive destinations continue to show strong progress since 2015/16. The Annual Participation Measure shows that the poverty-related gap is at its narrowest on record and that young people from the most deprived areas are more likely to be participating in education, training or employment than at any point in the past.

The positive destinations measure shows that the gap between leavers from the most deprived and least deprived areas in a positive initial destination widened slightly between 2022/23 and 2023/24. Despite this, this is the second narrowest gap since consistent records began. The poverty-related gap in destinations for females is lower than it is for males, but the gap has narrowed to a greater extent for males since 2019/20.

The 27–30-month Review also shows progress with the gap between children from the most deprived and least deprived areas in Scotland who have no developmental concerns across all domains decreasing between 2015/16 and 2023/24. Whilst the gap has varied over the years, in 2023/24 it is smaller than in the pre-pandemic years.

School leaver attainment in national qualifications at SCQF levels 4-6 or better shows more mixed progress. The attainment gap between leavers from the most deprived and least deprived areas is wider than at any time since 2015-16 at SCQF Levels 4 or better and 5 or better. At level 6 or better, the gap is fractionally narrower than 2015/16, but wider than at any year since 2017/18. It should be kept in mind that the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) led to changes in how National Qualifications were assessed and graded in the years 2020 to 2023.

Attendance rates are another measure that shows limited progress. Attendance in both primary and secondary sectors has decreased since 2014/15, alongside a widening of the gap in attendance between school pupils from the most deprived and least deprived areas. There was a trend in reducing attendance prior to 2020. It is worth noting, however, that primary attendance increased for pupils from both the most and least deprived areas in 2023/24.

While the measures summarised in this report are key indicators of progress, analysis of quantitative data over the years of the Fund will be presented along with other evaluation evidence in Interim Reporting in 2025. This will provide a broad understanding of the progress being made and include consideration of ASF supported approaches at the school, local, regional, and national level to support children and young people.