Attainment Scotland Fund evaluation: reporting on National Improvement Framework attainment and health and wellbeing measures 2025

Section 2

Attainment Measures

Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence^[8]

Primary School Attainment

The attainment of primary pupils (P1, P4 and P7 pupils combined) in literacy and numeracy is outlined below, based on analysis of Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) Levels 2023/24 data. The percentage of primary school pupils achieving the expected CfE levels in 2023/24 was higher than in 2022/23, for all primary school stages and across all the organisers. For primary pupils combined, the proportion achieving expected levels in literacy (74 percentage points) and numeracy (80 percentage points) were the highest on record. There has been an upward trend in attainment for both the least and most deprived pupils in primary schools.

Primary School Attainment - Literacy

The gap between the proportion of primary pupils from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in literacy narrowed compared with 2022/23 and is now lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. The attainment gap in literacy between pupils from the most and least deprived areas narrowed from 20.5 percentage points in 2022/23 to 20.2 percentage points in 2023/24. This is narrower than in 2018/19 (20.7 percentage points) and narrower than in 2017/18 (21.6 percentage points) or 2016/17 (22.1 percentage points).

Primary School Attainment - Numeracy

The gap between the proportion of primary school pupils (P1, P4 and P7 combined) from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in numeracy is slightly wider in 2023-24 than in 2022-23, 17.4 percentage points compared to 17.0 percentage points. The gap in Numeracy has varied over the years, from 17.6 percentage points in 2016/17 to 21.4 percentage points in 2020/21, reducing again in recent years.

Primary School Attainment - By Sex and SIMD

Analysis of ACEL Primary Literacy by Sex and SIMD shows that the gap in attainment between pupils from the most and least deprived areas was higher for boys (22.3 percentage points) than for girls (18.1 percentage points) in 2023/24. Compared to 2016/17, the poverty related attainment gap for boys was 0.8 percentage points lower, while for girls it was 2.3 percentage points lower.

For ACEL Primary Numeracy, the poverty-related attainment gap was lower for girls (16.3 percentage points) than for boys (18.3 percentage points). Compared to 2016/17, the poverty related attainment gap for boys was 0.3 percentage points higher, while for girls it was 0.5 percentage points lower.

Secondary School Attainment

The proportion of S3 pupils who achieved Third Level or better in literacy remained broadly stable between 2016/17 and 2018/19, for pupils from both the most and the least deprived areas. The proportions then decreased for both groups in 2021/22, falling by more for pupils from the most deprived areas. In 2022/23 and 2023/24 they have returned to similar levels seen prior to the pandemic, with a slight increase in 2023/24 for the most deprived.

Secondary School Attainment - Literacy

The proportion of most deprived pupils achieving the expected level for literacy is the highest since records began in 2016- 17. Attainment among the least deprived pupils has remained stable. The S3 pupils’ attainment gap in literacy has narrowed from 13.7 percentage points in 2022-23 to 12.7 percentage points in 2023-24. This is the lowest on record.

Secondary School Attainment - Numeracy

The S3 pupils’ attainment gap for Third Level or better in numeracy narrowed from 14.9 percentage points in 2016/17 to 14.0 percentage points in 2017/18 and to 13.5 percentage points in 2018/19. The gap then narrowed to 13.6 percentage points in 2022/23, from 15.0 percentage points in 2021/22, then narrowed again in 2023/24 to 12.0 percentage points.

The proportion of S3 pupils achieving third level or better in numeracy in the least deprived areas has remained stable over the last three years. Over the same time period attainment has improved in the most deprived areas, leading to a gap of 12.0 percentage points, representing the lowest level ever recorded.

Secondary School Attainment – By Sex and SIMD

Analysis of ACEL S3 Literacy by Sex and SIMD shows that the gap in attainment between pupils from the most and least deprived areas was higher for boys (14.7 percentage points) than for girls (10.7 percentage points) in 2023/24. Compared to 2016/17, the poverty related attainment gap for boys was 2.4 percentage points lower, while for girls it was 0.6 percentage points higher.

For ACEL S3 Numeracy, the poverty-related attainment gap was the same for girls and boys (12.0 percentage points). Compared to 2016/17, the poverty related attainment gap for boys was 4.7 percentage points lower, while for girls it was 0.9 percentage points lower.

Initial Positive Destinations Measure^[9]

This measure provides information on the outcomes for young people approximately three months after the end of the academic year (the 1st Monday in October). Positive destination includes higher education, further education, training, employment, voluntary work and Personal Skills Development.

The data show that in 2023/24 95.7% of all school leavers were in a positive initial destination, slightly down from from 95.9% in 2022/23. The gap between leavers from the most deprived and least deprived areas in a positive initial destination was 4.3 percentage points 2023/24. This has widened from 3.7 percentage points in 2022/23.

The gap in the proportion of school leavers in a positive destination has generally been narrowing each year since 2015/16 and in 2023/24 is 4.3 percentage points compared with 7.9 percentage points in 2015/16. While the percentage of school leavers in an initial positive destination has generally been increasing for those from both the most and least deprived areas, the increase has been greater for those from the most deprived areas. There was a very slight decrease for pupils living in the most deprived in an initial positive destination in 2023/24 when it was 93.6 percentage points down from 94.0 percentage points in 2022/23. Despite this, this is the second narrowest gap since consistent records began.

The poverty-related gap in positive destinations in 2023/24 was higher for males (4.6 percentage points) than it was for females (4.0 percentage points). Compared to 2019/20, the poverty-related gap for males has decreased by 2.8 percentage points and by 1.2 percentage points for females.

School leaver attainment – National Qualifications Only: Percentage of school leavers achieving awards by Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) level 4, 5, 6 or better^[10]

This measure of attainment^[11] of school leavers in Scotland is based on attainment in National Qualifications (Nationals, Highers, Advanced Highers).The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes to the way in which results in these qualifications were determined and so care should be taken when interperting attainment figures for 2019/20, 2020/21, 2021/22, 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) level 4

School leaver attainment data between 2015/16 and 2023/24 shows an increase in the gap for pupils from the most and least deprived areas leaving school with 1 or more qualifications at SCQF Level 4 or better from 6.1 percentage points in 2015/16 to 7.3 percentage points in 2023/24. Longer term the gap has varied over the years. The proportion attaining one pass or more in National Qualifications at this level was stable for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2022/23 and 2023/24. However, it decreased by slightly more for those from the most deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups widening.

Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) level 5

At SCQF level 5 or better the gap has widened over the period 2015/16 to 2023/24, from 20.3 percentage points in 2015/16 to 22.7 percentage points in 2023/24. The gap widened between 2022/23 to 2023/24 from 20.2 percentage points to 22.7 percentage points. The proportion attaining one pass or more in National Qualifications at this level decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2022/23 and 2023/24. However, it decreased by slightly more for those from the most deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups widening.

Analysis at SCQF level 5 by sex and SIMD shows that the poverty-related attainment gap is higher for males (24.0 percentage points) than for females (21.3 percentage points). Compared with 2016/17, the poverty-related attainment gap at SCQF Level 5 is 2.5 percentage points higher for males and 4.3 percentage points higher for females.

Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) level 6

The gap in the proportion of pupils who left school with 1 or more qualifications at SCQF Level 6 or better, narrowed very slightly between 2015/16 and 2023/24, from 38.5 percentage points to 38.4 percentage points. The gap widened between 2022/23 from 36.9 percentage points to 38.4 percentage points in 2023/24. The proportion attaining one pass or more in National Qualifications at this level decreased for school leavers from the most deprived areas between 2022/23 and 2023/24. However, it increased for those from least deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups widening.

Annual Participation Measure (APM)^[12]

The Annual Participation Measure^[13] (APM) reports on the education and employment activity of 16–19-year-olds in Scotland and is the source of the Scottish Government’s National Performance indicator “Percentage of young adults (16–19-year-olds) participating in education, training, or employment”.

The proportion of 16-19 year olds participating in education, training or employment was 92.7 % in 2024. This represents an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to 92.6% in 2023 and is the highest rate since the inception of the APM in 2017. Previous figures showed a slight increase year on year with the exception of 2019.

The participation measure shows the gap between the proportion of 16-19 year olds in the most and least deprived areas^[14] participating in education, training, and employment has steadily decreased from 12.9 percentage points in 2016 to 8.2 percentage points in 2024. This is driven by an increase in the proportion of 16–19-year-olds from the most deprived areas participating in education, training, and employment from 83.3% in 2016 to 88.4% in 2024. Over the same period the percentage of 16–19-year-olds from the least deprived areas participating in education, training or employment has remained broadly similar, going from 96.2% in 2016 to 96.6% in 2024.

Health and Wellbeing Measures

Attendance Rates ^[15]

Attendance data was collected every two years until 2022/23, but since then has now become an annual collection. Children’s ability to attend school was impacted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and this should be borne in mind when interpreting attendance rates over the years. The 2022/23 data shows that school attendance rates have fallen compared with 2020/21. This continues a trend for decreases in attendance rates since 2016/17. The gap in attendance between school pupils from the most and least deprived areas has widened since 2014/15.

The overall attendance rate for 2023/24 was 90.3%. For the period from 2014/15 to 2018/19 the attendance rate was relatively stable at around 93%. In 2020/21, during COVID-19, the attendance rate dropped to 92.0% and then dropped again in 2022/23 to 90.2%. Therefore, although the attendance rate for 2023/24 represents an increase on the previous year, it is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 period.

The gap in attendance rates was more prominent in secondary schools than primary schools. In primary schools the gap reduced from 5.7 percentage points in 2022/23 to 5.5 percentage points in 2023/24. In secondary schools the gap in attendance rates increased over time.

27–30-month review (children no concerns across all domains)^[16]

The 27- 30-month review is completed around 27-30 months of age and is conducted by members of staff within NHS Health Visiting Teams. Data has been collected since 2013. An Ages and Stages questionnaire is carried out which reviews the five main areas of child development: Communication and language, gross motor skills, fine motor skills, problem solving and personal and social development.

Overall, the percentage of children with no developmental concerns in Scotland has increased from 72.4 % in 2014/15 to 77.6% in 2023/24.

The gap between children from the most deprived and least deprived areas who have no developmental concerns across all domains decreased from 16.3 percentage points in 2015/16 to 14.4 percentage points in 2023/24.

The gap between children from the most deprived and least deprived areas who have no developmental concerns across all domains has varied since 2015/16. The gap increased in the years to 2017/18, then decreased to 2020/21 before increasing again in 2021/22 and 2022/23 and decreasing in 2023/24.

In 2023/24 the gap is smaller than in the pre-pandemic years.

Health and Wellbeing Data

For health and wellbeing data, the Total Difficulties Score for children aged 4-12 and ages 13 and 15 are considered. The data source has changed for HWB: Children total difficulties score (age 13&15) and so data is available for 2022 only.

The proportion of children aged 4-12 with a borderline or abnormal total difficulties score is similar between 2018-2022 combined (17%) and 2019-2023 combined (19%). The gap between children with a borderline or abnormal total difficulties score in the most deprived and least deprived areas has increased since 2015-2018 combined (15 percentage points) and was at 19 percentage points in 2019-2023 combined. This is due to an increase in the percentage of children in the most deprived areas with a borderline or abnormal total difficulties scores.

Children total difficulties score (age 13 and 15) was reported on in the 2021/22 the Health and Wellbeing (HWB)^[17] Census which recorded 43% of 13- and 15-year-olds with a borderline or abnormal total difficulties score. The gap between children from the most deprived and least deprived areas was 13 percentage points, with 50% of 13- and 15-year-olds from the most deprived areas reporting a borderline or abnormal total difficulties scores compared with 37% of those from the least deprived areas.