Attainment Scotland Fund evaluation: National Improvement Framework - attainment and health and wellbeing measures

Section 1

Introduction

The Scottish Attainment Challenge was launched in February 2015 with the strategic aim of 'closing the poverty-related attainment gap between children and young people from the least and most disadvantaged communities'. The Attainment Scotland Fund (ASF), which supports the Scottish Attainment Challenge, prioritises improvements in literacy, numeracy and health and wellbeing of those children adversely affected by poverty in Scotland's schools. Achieving excellence and equity in education are the key aims.

A key output of the Attainment Scotland Fund (ASF) Evaluation, this report summarises evidence around improvement in attainment and health and wellbeing, and the gap between pupils from the most and least deprived areas. Evidence of impact draws on analysis of quantitative data on attainment and wellbeing, based on the measures for monitoring progress on closing the poverty-related attainment gap as set out in the National Improvement Framework and Improvement Plan.

A core objective of the Attainment Scotland Fund - 2022 to 2026: evaluation strategy is to assess the impact of the overall fund in improving outcomes in educational attainment and achievement and health and wellbeing and closing the poverty-related attainment gap between the most and least disadvantaged children and young people.

This report draws together data from measures previously published to present evidence in support of the key evaluation question on closing the poverty-related attainment gap. This relates to:

Evaluation Question 15: To what extent did the fund contribute to a closing of the attainment gap between the most and least socio-economically disadvantaged children and young people, in line with the refreshed Scottish Attainment Challenge Mission?

Refresh of Scottish Attainment Challenge

The refreshed Scottish Attainment Challenge was launched in March 2022, with its new mission:

To use education to improve outcomes for children and young people impacted by poverty with a focus on tackling the poverty-related attainment gap.

The refreshed Programme introduced a number of changes at national, regional and local level. This includes the introduction of Strategic Equity Funding (SEF), replacing Challenge Authority and Schools Programme Funding, and Local Stretch Aims through the Framework for Recovery and Accelerating Progress.

Stretch Aims

A key element of the Scottish Attainment Challenge Framework for Recovery and Accelerating Progress was the introduction of a requirement for local authorities to set ambitious and achievable stretch aims for progress in overall attainment and towards closing the poverty related attainment gap in the 2022/23 academic year. Stretch aims are intended to be embedded in local authority education service improvement plans.

Local authority stretch aims were published and provide information on local authorities' ambitions for progress in overall attainment and closing the poverty related attainment gap for 2022/23. These local aims informed an aggregated national picture also included in that publication.

The Attainment Scotland Fund Evaluation

The Evaluation Strategy for the Attainment Scotland Fund 2022-2026 sets out the broad terms of the Scottish Government's approach to evaluating the ASF during this parliamentary term. The Strategy has been designed following the refresh of the Scottish Attainment Challenge. The evaluation cycle is moving from an annual to a multi-year approach, which aims to build an evidence base over time, offering the opportunity to explore different aspects of the Programme over points in time. This includes an in-year rather than a retrospective evaluation approach, with more frequent publications.

The Strategy sets out the analytical activity related to four key strands of evaluation focus across the multi-year evaluation:

• Process evaluation to consider implementation of the refreshed Attainment Scotland Fund, including Strategic Equity Fund, Pupil Equity Fund and Care Experienced Children and Young People Fund;
• A thematic strand of evaluation which will respond to emerging system priorities and consider what works, for whom and in what circumstances;
• Reporting on the National Improvement Framework (NIF) measures;
• Evaluation of the impact of ASF, through a combination of qualitative and quantitative measures.

A detailed analytical plan outlining activity in support of the high level strategy is published annually and this takes account of the new evaluation approach highlighted in the Strategy.

This publication relates to the third strand which will be reported on annually. In previous years reporting on attainment measures was contained in a chapter of the annual, retrospective evaluation reports. For this publication, and moving forward, we are taking an accessible and proportionate approach to reporting by producing a stand-alone report on attainment measures. While the measures summarised are key indicators of progress, analysis of quantitative data must be supplemented with other evaluation evidence to provide an understanding of the progress being made and why, the views of stakeholders, and what works for whom and in what circumstance.

Measures

Evidence of impact draws on analysis of quantitative data on attainment and wellbeing based on the agreed key measures for monitoring progress towards closing the poverty-related attainment gap set out in the National Improvement Framework. This sets out a basket of key measures and sub-measures to assess progress. The key measures and reporting periods are shown in Table 5.1 below. The most recently available data will be presented from 2015/16 or 2015 to align with the Scottish Attainment Challenge Programme's inception, with the exception of Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence Levels (ACEL) data for which consistent data is first available for 2016/17.

Previous ASF Evaluation reporting on attainment and health and wellbeing measures consisted of a subset of the core NIF measures. The approach going forward will be to report on the core NIF attainment and health and wellbeing measures with the exception of the 27–30-month review.^[1] The Scottish Government issued a consultation on the core NIF measures on attainment and health and wellbeing which closed in July 2022. As a result of the consultation two new core measures were added: Attendance rates and Initial Positive Destinations. Moving to the core NIF measures will ensure consistency and alignment with annual NIF Improvement Plan reporting.^[2]

Analysis

All of the data are available at both Scotland and local authority level. Each of the measures outlined in the above table in order to address the evaluation question are considered in terms of:

• Overall attainment
• Attainment for pupils from most and least deprived SIMD quintiles
• Percentage point gap between the most and least deprived

In addition, data for the following groups will be shown in supplementary tables:

• Each of the 32 Local Authorities

This report provides a high-level summary of national progress, presented as a concise narrative with infographics. In addition, supplementary tables are provided separately for each of the attainment measures and the Attendance health and wellbeing measure.

Analysis does not include detailed consideration at the local authority level but does point to patterns of variation identified. Information is provided for each measure noting the number of local authorities where it is possible to calculate where the gap has narrowed or widened in recent years. Where the overall numbers are not presented for 32 local authorities, this is due to suppression. This is because there are a small numbers of school leavers; or because the gap cannot be calculated in some years as the local authority had no pupils in either Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Quintile 1 and/or Quintile 5 in that year.