Just Transition: draft plan for transport in Scotland

4. Workers

By 2045, a successful just transition will mean:

• Workers have gained the skills required for, and benefitted from, a net zero transport system.
• Workers have been supported in adapting to the impacts of climate change, as part of a sector that embraces fair work.
• The transport workforce is more diverse, equal and inclusive, and will continue being strengthened by a reliable pipeline of future talent.

From our engagement, we heard the following messages about workers in the transport sector:

• The need for transport training provision to be accessible to both the existing workforce and new entrants, ensuring Scotland can deliver on the challenges of increased demand, widening access to transport for under-served groups, and adopting and maintaining new technology, including new infrastructure and fuels.
• The need for transport delivery and planning workforces to be more representative of all communities and groups in Scottish society, so that decisions are being made by people with a more diverse range of lived experiences.
• The need for transport sector jobs to be defined and celebrated as “green jobs” with the right support from employers for workers to consider how their roles contribute to decarbonisation.

Workers: Context

The actions that we take to decarbonise transport will have major implications for workers across our economy. For most people, the main changes will be to their commute, and to the vehicles they use to travel to work. The People and Communities section (above) sets out a range of activity and future priorities that will ensure workers can adapt to and benefit from these changes. For example, better public transport options, which are necessary to reduce emissions, should make it easier for people across Scotland to access employment or educational opportunities.

We know, however, that some workers will face more significant impacts, as their workplaces make the transition and adapt to the impacts of climate change. As these changes are made, it is vital that workers are appropriately consulted, and are able to contribute to the decision-making process. This can be achieved by ensuring appropriate channels for effective workers’ voice – something which is central to the Scottish Government’s vision for fair work, and for a just transition.

Jobs and Skills Impact

Among the workers most affected by the transport transition will be the 144,000 people working in our transport industry, as well as those closely associated with it, including workers in the transport supply chain and those whose jobs involve working with vehicles (for example, members of our emergency services).

The majority of the people working directly in Scotland’s transport industry are employed in the road transport sector. A breakdown of employment by transport mode is given at Figure 2.

The existing evidence base suggests that there will be no significant change in the total size of the transport workforce as a result of the transition. However, the impact of the transition on different types of workers’ jobs, and the size of workforce in each mode will vary.

On the one hand, the evidence suggests that there will be potential jobs losses in some areas as we move closer to 2045. The employment facing the most serious impacts are likely to be vehicle repair and maintenance jobs – particularly at small local garages – and petrol station jobs. At the moment, the owners of petrol or diesel cars and vans tend to use small local garages for maintenance services. However, ultra-low emissions vehicles (ULEVs) generally require less labour-intensive maintenance, and more of these services tend to be carried out by the dealerships that sell the vehicles. In the case of petrol station jobs, the impact will come from the move to home charging for ULEVs. Research suggests that over 10,000 petrol or diesel repair and maintenance jobs and up to 2,500 petrol station jobs could be at risk by 2050^[24].

On the other hand, the evidence also suggests that any job losses could be offset by new transport employment that is created as a result of the transition. For example, as many as 15,000 new roles could be required to support the uptake of ULEVs by 2050, for services including maintenance and repair, production, and infrastructure installation^[25]. The transition also has the potential to create further new jobs, either through the growth of new transport industries in Scotland – such as those relating to hydrogen or Sustainable Aviation Fuel – or from a significant change in transport provision – for example, from significantly increased public transport. (The economic opportunities of the transition are considered in the ‘Business: Context section’.)

“[Workers need] …Clear plans on the intention of changes so workers can adapt and train to meet new regulations and challenges.” – Transport Workers Survey, Scottish Trade Unions Council

The overall size of the transport workforce is therefore expected to remain relatively stable. Across the sector, most workers will do the same job, or one very similar to it. However, for large numbers of people – including those working in the transport industry and those in other industries – decarbonisation will create the need for new or enhanced skills which will have to be gained through reskilling or upskilling (Figure 3).

Skills Priorities

Ensuring that current workers can get the skills they need to adapt to and support the transition is a key challenge. The Scottish Government is continuing to work with industry and others to assess the nature of the challenge and the areas that need to be prioritised. In making that assessment, we are considering three key factors:

• The approximate timeframes for sub-sector decarbonisation.
• The size of the workforce in each sub-sector (Figure 2).
• The particular challenges that workers/businesses in each sub-sector face when it comes to attaining the right skills.

On the basis of scale and immediacy, it is clear that skills demands are currently most pressing in the road transport sector. This covers the skills that workers need in relation to:

• decarbonised cars and vans (e.g. electric vehicles) – the most immediate area of demand. As set out above, addressing the needs of small and independent businesses must be a particular priority. We know that they can face particular barriers when it comes to attaining new skills – from a lack of money and time, with the compounded issue of lost earnings while undertaking training, to a lack of knowledge about the skills needed and how to attain them^[27].
• decarbonised Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDVs) – which includes heavy goods vehicles, buses and coaches. While most HDV skills and training are currently delivered by private providers, evidence suggests that Further Education Colleges will need to play a much greater role in provision, as demand increases^[28].

Rail is another area where, over the short to medium term, additional workers with electrification skills will be required. However, due to the relative size of the workforce, this challenge is likely to be on a smaller scale than that facing the road transport sector.^[29]

Due to the likely timeframes for the development and adoption of new technologies, we do not believe that the decarbonisation of the Port and Maritime and Aviation sectors will create the need for new skills in the short term. While important action is taking place to determine the technological path for the transition in these areas, any skills challenges are likely to be the central focus of future Just Transition Plans^[30].

Across the different sub-sectors, there are some shared skills requirements. Research commissioned by Transport Scotland and Skills Development Scotland has identified a common skills shortage (where skills provision is in place, but the sector lacks people with the necessary skills) to support the electrification of transport. This research also shows that the most common skills gaps (where skills provision is lacking or limited) relate to hydrogen production and refuelling infrastructure, although timing and scale of future demand for these skills in the transport sector is not yet certain^[31].

Whilst skills in all these areas will be needed by transport workers across Scotland, we also know there will also be some regional variations. For example, much of the planned electrification of the rail sector will be located in the East of Scotland while the demand for sustainable aviation skills is likely to centre on our aviation and aerospace cluster at Prestwick, and our three main airports. The particular needs of different communities, and the barriers they face in accessing skills provision, will need to be addressed to ensure a just transition.

Diversity and Pipeline of Future Talent

The level of skills activity needed to address these requirements has major implications for our transport sector, and our education and skills system. However, just as important is the need to bring more workers into the transport industry. Already 40% of transport workers are over the age of 50, and skills shortages are already a growing challenge in many parts of the sector.

The latest Employer Skills Survey data (2022) highlights the existing scale of the skills challenge in the transport sector, with skills shortage vacancies for the transport sector rising to 12% in 2022 from only 2% in 2020. While this increase in skills shortage vacancies is not unique to this sector (10% for Scotland as a whole), the importance of transport to our just transition means we need specific and tailored action for the sector.

In part, this is linked to the negative perceptions that many potential new entrants feel about working in transport^[32]. In turn, these perceptions are both a cause and a symptom of the long-standing diversity problem facing our transport industry. For example, the latest figures show that women make up just 18% of the transport workforce^[33], and just 4% of those starting transport-related Modern Apprenticeships^[34]. To build the workforce required for the transition, and become more inclusive, it is vital that the sector is able to attract more people from groups that are currently under-represented – such as women and young people.

Adaptation

Another key consideration for the transition is the impact of climate change on transport workers. We know people working in transport are more likely to be exposed to the weather-related impacts of climate change due to the nature of their jobs – i.e. operating transport, or supporting the transport network, outdoors. This makes adaptation and resilience measures essential in ensuring the health and safety of these workers.

Summary of Key Points:

• Workers in every sector will face changes as a result of the transport transition – mainly in their commute, and the vehicles they use.
• The size of the transport workforce will be relatively stable; there is potential for job losses out to 2045, but there is also potential for new jobs to be created.
• Significant numbers of workers in the transport sector, and in transport-related roles, will require new skills. Road transport is the most pressing area of need in the short term.
• There is a need for more new workers to join the sector - especially women and people from groups that are currently underrepresented.

Workers: Action to date

Over recent years, there has been significant action to prepare our transport workforce for the transition – in line with the priorities of our National Transport Strategy. Key examples include:

• The completion of extensive research, commissioned by Transport Scotland and Skills Development Scotland, into the transport skills required for transition.
• Work with the Scottish Trade Union Congress to explore the perspectives of transport workers on climate change and the transition.
• Changes within skills pathways – for example, electric vehicle content has now been incorporated into many key automotive Modern Apprenticeship frameworks, through Institute of the Motor Industry qualifications.
• A range of skills initiatives across the different sub-sectors – from the launch of Scotland’s Railway Academy to the skills commitments made by the Zero Emissions Truck Taskforce.

For the Scottish Government, an overarching priority has also been to strengthen the role of Scotland’s colleges in providing transport transition skills and preparing the workforce of the future. This has been done primarily through our support for the Energy Skills Partnership (ESP), the college sector agency for the energy transition and net zero.

Since 2016, ESP has established three transport training networks – covering automotive skills (i.e. electric and hybrid vehicles, including HDVs), hydrogen skills, and marine and maritime skills (see the Workforce and Skills Annex for further details). Colleges within these networks receive support in developing their capacity and capabilities in the emerging technologies in these areas.

Case Study 3 – Energy Skills Partnership

The Energy Skills Partnership (ESP) is the college sector agency for the net zero transition. In line with the Scottish Government’s commitment to phase out new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030, ESP has been collaborating with a range of partners – including the professional body, the Institute of the Motor Industry (IMI) – to ensure our college sector is ready to provide the electric vehicle skills our automotive sector will need. As a result, over 100 college staff have been trained in EV repair and maintenance across 15 colleges, and essential training tools have been purchased to provide a shared learning resource. This in turn has led to the training of over 5,000 people in EV repair and maintenance. Based on this success, and the work of our colleges, the IMI has chosen to pilot its latest hydrogen qualifications in Scotland as part of the ‘train the trainer programme’, upskilling college staff across the college network.

Funding from Transport Scotland has also helped to equip Scottish colleges with Virtual Reality (VR) headsets to provide simulated training environments. This will allow our college sector to adapt quickly to advances in technology as we continue to move towards net zero, as VR training environments can be developed, updated and rolled out instantly to the college network. Currently, college students are able to learn in a simulated environment how to operate hydrogen refuelling infrastructure, and this year will see the first VR training programme developed for vehicle repair and maintenance technicians – specifically, Heavy Duty Vehicle (HDV) technicians.

In recent years, Transport Scotland has provided additional funding to ESP to support the work of the automotive and hydrogen training networks. This funding has helped to address some of the most pressing skills needs we have identified, and has supported the following outcomes:

• Scotland leads the UK in having upskilled all college automotive lecturers in electric vehicle maintenance (more than 100 staff at 15 colleges).
• Colleges across Scotland now benefit from EV and hydrogen equipment that is centrally-owned and easily transported – thereby addressing geographic imbalance in the delivery of electric vehicle training.
• Scotland’s first accredited hydrogen qualification has been established.
• 5,000 learners have been trained in electric vehicle repair and maintenance.
• The Institute of the Motor Industry has chosen to pilot its latest hydrogen qualifications in Scotland, based on the leading work of our colleges.

At the same time, significant work has also been ongoing to address some of the more long-standing workforce and skills challenges the sector faces, outwith the transition. These are crucial to ensuring a strong pipeline of diverse talent coming into the sector in the future. They include:

• Ongoing implementation of our national strategy to improve the teaching of science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) in schools, colleges and universities – with a particular focus on encouraging more women and girls to pursue STEM subjects.
• Support for initiatives promoting diversity and inclusion within the industry – including sponsorship for the creation of a Scotland hub for the Women In Transport network.
• Wider action to address labour market inequality and promote fair work across the different sectors of our economy. This includes applying fair work principles to a range of public sector grants, funding and contracts; expanding funded early learning and childcare; and supporting workplace equality.
• The establishment of Scotland’s Migration Service, which is designed to help our country attract talent, by assisting workers and businesses in navigating the immigration system.

Case Study 4 – Women in Transport: Scotland Hub

Women In Transport is a UK-wide not-for-profit that aims to promote the role of women in the transport sector. In 2021, Transport Scotland provided funding to support the establishment of a specific Scotland Hub for the network. Through online content and events, the hub helps to highlight women’s leadership in the sector, promote mentoring within the network, and explore the barriers to women’s success. Since its launch, membership of the Women In Transport network in Scotland has risen from 0 to around 100.

Case Study 5 - Lothian Buses Apprenticeship Scheme Engagement

Edinburgh’s Lothian Buses employs over 2,500 people and operates over 70 services with a fleet exceeding 700 buses, making them the largest municipal bus company in the UK.

As a partner of Women In Transport, Lothian Buses are well aware of the need to promote diversity in their organisation and the transport sector as a whole. To this end, they have been engaging with school groups around Edinburgh to promote their apprenticeship scheme.

This has involved organising visits of S3 and S4 girls to their garages, to give the pupils an insight into the world of engineering in the sector, and to demonstrate the opportunities available. The pupils have had the chance to hear from Lothian’s three current female engineers, two of whom are part of their apprenticeship scheme.

Lothian Buses also participated in the Meaningful May campaign, as part of Scotland’s Developing the Young Workforce programme. The company took groups of children with additional needs on tours of the facilities, such as the garages and the control rooms. The tours familiarised children with all of the various types of jobs available, not limited to engineering.

Following excellent feedback, Lothian Buses are hoping to increase the frequency of these events to garner further interest in job opportunities and will be focussing on the engineering-specific tours in the months running up to the next Scottish Apprenticeship Week in March 2025.

Important steps have also been taken to ensure workers are protected from and supported in adapting to the impacts of climate change. For example, Adaptation Scotland, Unison and the STUC have jointly produced Climate Hazards and Resilience in the Workplace resources, aimed at employers and workers across Scotland’s economy. These resources identify the hazards that climate change could bring to different workplaces, and the action necessary to protect workplace health and safety.

Workers: Future priorities

The activity set out above is making an important difference in preparing Scotland to meet the workforce requirements of the transition. As the sector decarbonises, it is vital that we build on the work that has already taken place.

Where possible, this includes more workers and businesses planning ahead for the impacts of the transition, and gaining the new skills that will be required. To support this process, the Scottish Government will prioritise ongoing support for the work of the Energy Skills Partnership, to continue addressing the sector’s skills needs. This will include an additional focus on upskilling college staff so they can teach skills relating to the installation of electric vehicle infrastructure.

We will also engage with workers and employers across the industry to explore the needs of those most vulnerable to the transition to EVs, and how the skills barriers that they face can be addressed. This includes engaging with suppliers on how they can help to mitigate negative impacts on the local vehicle maintenance and repair sector.

An initial priority for addressing this issue is to improve the signposting of information about transport green jobs and skills and the provision that is currently available. From our engagement, we know that too many potential new entrants, workers and employers still struggle to understand what skills they might require, and how these can be attained.

In addition, there is need for further specific action from industry across the different sub-sectors. This must include:

• Further concerted action to address the lack of diversity in the sector.
• In the HDV sector – where the action is particularly pressing – delivery of the skills actions agreed through the Zero Emissions Truck Taskforce (ZETT). Specifically, the Road Haulage Association and Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) will identify occupational career pathways and existing training courses, as well as evidence gaps in provision and funding, and will publish a pipeline of training offerings and a training map.

These short- to medium-term actions will build on the work that is already taking place. However, as we look to the future, it is also clear that more fundamental change is required across our skills and education system to meet the growing demands of the transition.

This was further underlined by two reports published in 2023: James Withers’ Independent Review of the Skills Delivery Landscape and the Scottish Government’s Purpose and Principles for post-school research, education and skills. They explored how the current skills delivery system could be adapted to drive forward our economic priorities – including how we ensure that individuals can access the learning they need to adapt to the net zero transition.

These reports recommended a range of structural and operational changes to achieve these aims, and the Scottish Government has since set out our initial priorities as part of our programme of reform. These priorities are all directly relevant to the skills pathways that will support the transition in the transport sector:

• Implementing a new national skills planning approach so that, for the first time, the Scottish Government will be able to directly set its strategic skills priorities.
• Strengthening regional skills planning to ensure Scotland’s regions are further empowered to respond to the needs of the transition.
• Introducing legislation to simplify the skills funding public body landscape, including bringing the funding of apprenticeships into one place.
• Reforming apprenticeships to make them simpler for people and employers.
• Improving careers advice and education support in communities, educational settings and workplaces, including enhanced work experience opportunities for young people.
• Reforming post-school qualifications arrangements so that they are more responsive to need.

In particular, we believe the creation of a new national skills planning framework could underpin greater collaboration across government, industry and training providers. As we take forward these reforms, we will engage with a wide variety of workers, learners and employers to ensure that changes to the system are informed by their needs and views.

Summary of Future Priorities:

• So far as possible, workers and businesses need to prepare for the transition and gain the skills that will be required for a net zero transport system.
• The Scottish Government will support further work to improve capacity and capability of Scotland colleges, in supporting the skills needs of the workforce.
• The Scottish Government/industry will explore options for supporting the workers/businesses who face the biggest challenges from the transition, and improve signposting of information about green transport skills/jobs.
• Industry will take forward the ZETT actions to map workers’ skills needs for the transition in the HDV sector.
• Further industry efforts are required to address the lack of diversity in the sector.
• The Scottish Government will take forward reform of the post school education and skills system, to ensure it meets the needs of existing workers and potential new workers.

Workers Consultation Questions:

Aim: To understand priorities, gather feedback and identify any gaps in the vision and content; to collect evidence to inform just transition planning for the sector; and to seek views on scope of challenges around skills provision.

Audience: Individuals answering on their own behalf thinking about their work and lived experience. Organisations representing workers in transport and other sectors, and employers, including the public sector.

Question 9 (Everyone): This question relates to all the content in the section on Workers. Are there any gaps in our priority action to supporting workers in the transition of the transport sector? It would be helpful if you could say whether your answer relates to all workers or transport workers.

Question 10 (Everyone): We have set out some actions in the draft Plan which we hope will address Transport workforce challenges. How important are the following actions to make transport jobs more attractive to people who are not as likely to work in the sector, such as women and younger people?

• Programmes which encourage women and girls to enter science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) courses at school and college or university.
• Actions to promote diversity and inclusion within the industry, including workplace culture changes.
• Actions that address existing pay gaps for certain groups.
• Actions to increase access to childcare.
• Other - please specify

Question 11: (Everyone): Actions to improve diversity in the transport sector would be most effective if they were mostly led by:

• Public sector
• Third sector
• Individuals
• None of the above
• Don’t know

Question 12 (For business/ organisations and Transport workers): Does the summary of priorities for workers in the draft Just Transition Plan address future workforce and skills challenges you expect to have, as the transport sector decarbonises?

Select from scale for each statement:

The draft priorities for workers will address future skills challenges.

The draft priorities for workers will address transport workforce diversity.

The draft priorities will encourage new entrants to the transport workforce.