Just Transition: draft plan for transport in Scotland

Annex E: Workforce and Skills

Scotland’s transport workforce has been stable in recent times and this trend is expected to continue as the sector transitions to net zero. However, this steady workforce masks a significant training and re-skilling requirement across the various transport modes to support low carbon adoption. Some modes, such as road transport, will require more immediate training given the volume of their workforce and intended speed of decarbonisation. The transport sector also has well-established diversity challenges, particularly relating to the high prevalence of male employees and new entrants.

The transport workforce is stable, and this is expected to continue

The transport sector (including transport manufacturing) employs an estimated 144,000 people in Scotland, representing around 5% of the total Scottish workforce^[71]. This share of total employment has remained broadly steady since 2015, with the Covid-19 pandemic having had a minimal impact on transport employment in Scotland – a decline of c.4,000 jobs between 2020 and 2021, which has more than rebounded between 2021 and 2023.

The number of jobs in the sector is not expected to grow significantly in the short-to-medium term. It is more likely to remain a stable workforce. Forecasts from Oxford Economics suggest a significant demand for 31,000 new workers, to replace those leaving the sector or retiring, in the next three years (2024-2027), but with little expansion demand due to limited sector growth over this period^[72].

There are regional differences in transport jobs across Scotland. The largest transport workforces are, unsurprisingly, in the larger urban areas. However, there are pockets of transport activity elsewhere. For example, North Lanarkshire has a high concentration of transport jobs – at around 10% of all jobs in the area, double the national rate – and this is driven by a number of established companies such as Dennis Eagle and Rokbak Newberry Coachbuilders.

Similarly, areas like Falkirk (8%, Alexander Dennis Ltd, Cebotec Ltd), Renfrewshire (8%, Glasgow Airport), and West Lothian (8%, McPhie Coachbuilders & Repairers Ltd) all have high levels of transport employment due to the existence of significant employers. Similarly, ports and maritime employment (e.g. CalMac) tend to be clustered around Scotland’s coastal and island communities^[73].

Transport jobs in Scotland tend to be better paid than the economy average. The average median gross weekly pay in the transportation and storage sector was £656 in 2023, 12% higher than the Scottish average of £588, and it has stayed above the national average since 2018^[74].

The transport and communication sector has a similar proportion of highly skilled workers when compared to the wider economy (53% vs 51%). However, it has a much larger proportion of low skilled roles (36% vs 21%)^[75].

A male-dominated workforce and pipeline

Relative to other sectors and Scotland as a whole, transport has a particularly polarized gender divide in favour of men. In 2023, 81% of the transportation and storage sector jobs were held by men and 19% by women, a split which has become even more unequal over recent years^[76]. This is in comparison to the wider Scottish economy which was 50:50 in 2023.

Similarly, while the gender divide across Scotland’s Modern Apprenticeship programme is 62% in favour of males, starts on transport-related apprenticeships were 96% male in 2023/24^[77], a figure which has changed very little in the past eight years. The only occupational groupings with similar ratios were in construction, manufacturing, and engineering.

The transportation and storage sector has an older workforce, when compared to the Scottish average. Data for 2023 is unreliable, but data for 2022 shows that 40% of jobs in the sector were held by people aged 50 or over, compared to 33% for the wider economy. Equally, there were fewer 16-24 year olds in the transport sector compared to nationally (9% vs 12%)^[78].

There is a small but steady pipeline of skills into the transport sector

For existing workers, as for new entrants, transport skills are generally delivered by a combination of industry itself, colleges and universities, and private training providers. Within this landscape, however, Scotland’s colleges play a particularly vital role, delivering education and training that underpins the transport sector.

As set out in Section 4, the Energy Skills Partnership (ESP)^[79] – a Scottish Government funded college sector agency for energy and transport transitions – is also supporting skills provision through its three transport training networks (Figure E1). Actions have included purchasing EVs, hydrogen car kits and training materials for use in colleges, holding national CPD sessions for academic staff, and working with partners in the North East to produce a Hydrogen for Transport course aimed at new entrants.

In 2023/24, there were almost 2,450 transport-related Modern Apprenticeship (MA) starts in Scotland. These include frameworks in automotive, freight logistics, maritime occupations and supply chain management. These starts account for 10% of all MA starts in Scotland, a proportion that has been consistent since 2016/17. Current apprenticeship and National Occupational Standard (NOS) developments are exploring new transport and energy related standards for MA frameworks, including for hydrogen production, transportation and storage, and gas network construction.

Road transport will require significant re-training in the short-medium term

Figure E2 sets out the estimated workforce size of each main transport mode – road transport, ports and maritime, aviation, rail, and other modes including active travel. It also highlights the estimated scale of training required to support the low carbon roll-out of each mode^[80]. It is important to note that in some modes, more people will need to be trained than work in the sector. This is because both those working in the transport sector and those working in other sectors, such as sales, the public sector and emergency services, will require training on the mode’s low carbon transition.

Source for estimated workforce: Business Register and Employment Survey

As shown in the table, road transport has by far the largest workforce, and also a significant volume of training and re-skilling required to support the uptake of low carbon cars, vans and HDVs. This re-training will likely be required in the short-to-medium term, over the period to 2035, given the faster low carbon adoption of road transport. This in comparison to other modes, such as shipping and aviation, which are expected to decarbonise over a longer timeframe, given uncertainties over technologies etc, meaning re-training for these modes is expected to be required later.

There are likely to be some workforce and skills implications for active travel, including opportunities in the construction of active travel infrastructure and roll-out of electric pedal-assisted cycles (EPACs), although evidence on this is currently limited.

Demand for transport skills remains high and will vary across Scotland

Placing a focus on employment entry routes into the sector is key in any effort to change the workforce of the industry, and apprenticeships present an opportunity to bring in a more diverse workforce and attract under-represented groups.

There is currently a demand for skills in the transport sector, and this is expected to continue. Real-time job postings in early 2024 saw a 2% growth from the previous year, compared to an all-economy decline^[81]. Job postings remain higher than pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels, showing a sustained demand for workers in the sector. Currently, many of these jobs are lower skilled, lower paid occupations e.g. machine drivers/operatives, sales, admin and service staff.

Research for the Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan anticipates skills shortages in a number of transport roles, including electricians for charging infrastructure; repairing and maintaining EVs; HDV manufacture, sales and repair; engineers for rail electrification; and rail and bus drivers^[82].

Skills demand will also vary by region across Scotland. For example, skills for the electrification of rail will be focussed in the East of Scotland; aviation supply chain skills at Prestwick airport and ground operations at Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen airports; investment in Scotland’s two Green Freeports will mean skills requirements around the Forth and Cromarty Firth; and City Deal projects in the Glasgow City Region, such as the Clyde Metro, will drive skills demand, as well as bus driver shortages due to competition from logistics services.