A Trading Nation: analytical methodology note

Live animals other than animals of division 03

Food and Drink

Meat & meat preparations

Food and Drink

Dairy products & birds' eggs

Food and Drink

Fish, crustaceans, molluscs & aq.inverts & preps thereof

Food and Drink

Cereals & cereal preparations

Food and Drink

Vegetables & fruit

Food and Drink

Sugar, sugar preparations & honey

Food and Drink

Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices & manufactures thereof

Food and Drink

Feeding stuff for animals (not inc.unmilled cereals)

Other (mostly Agricultural)

Miscellaneous edible products & preparations

Food and Drink

Beverages

Food and Drink

Tobacco & tobacco manufactures

Other (mostly Agricultural)

Hides, skins & furskins, raw

Textiles

Oil seeds & oleaginous fruits

Other (mostly Agricultural)

Crude rubber (including synthetic & reclaimed)

Chemical Sciences

Cork & wood

Forest & Timber

Pulp & waste paper

Forest & Timber

Textile fibres not manufactured & their waste etc

Textiles

Crude fertilizers & crude minerals (exc fuels etc)

Chemical Sciences

Metalliferous ores & metal scrap

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Crude animal & vegetable materials n.e.s.

Other (mostly Agricultural)

Coal, coke & briquettes

Chemical Sciences

Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials

Chemical Sciences

Gas, natural & manufactured

Utilities

Electric current

Utilities

Animal oils & fats

Other (mostly Agricultural)

Fixed vegetable fats & oils, crude,refined,fractionated

Other (mostly Agricultural)

Animal or vegetable fats & oils, processed, & waxes

Other (mostly Agricultural)

Organic chemicals

Chemical Sciences

Inorganic chemicals

Chemical Sciences

Dyeing, tanning & colouring materials

Chemical Sciences

Medicinal & pharmaceutical products

Life Sciences

Essential oils & perfume materials; toilet preps etc

Chemical Sciences

Fertilizers (other than those of group 272)

Chemical Sciences

Plastics in primary forms

Chemical Sciences

Plastics in non-primary forms

Chemical Sciences

Chemical materials & products n.e.s.

Chemical Sciences

Leather, leather manufactures n.e.s & dressed furskins

Textiles

Rubber manufactures n.e.s.

Chemical Sciences

Cork & wood manufactures (excluding furniture)

Manufacturing for Construction

Paper, paperboard & manufactures thereof

Forest & Timber

Textile yarn, fabrics, made up articles etc

Textiles

Non-metallic mineral manufactures n.e.s.

Manufacturing for Construction

Iron & steel

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Non-ferrous metals

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Manufactures of metal n.e.s.

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Power generating machinery & equipment

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Machinery specialized for particular industries

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Metalworking machinery

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

General industrial machinery & eqp. & machine pt.n.e.s.

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Office machines & adp machines

Technology, Software and Communication

Telecomms & sound recording & reproducing app. & eqp.

Technology, Software and Communication

Ele machinery, app & appliances & ele pt thereof n.e.s.

Technology, Software and Communication

Road vehicles (including air cushion vehicles)

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Other transport equipment

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

P/fab buildings;sanit.,plumbing,heating &lighting fixt.

Manufacturing for Construction

Furniture & parts thereof; bedding, mattresses etc

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Travel goods, handbags & similar containers

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Articles of apparel & clothing accessories

Textiles

Footwear

Textiles

Professional, scientific & controlling ins & app n.e.s.

Life Sciences

Photographic & optical goods, n.e.s.; watches & clocks

Technology, Software and Communication

Miscellaneous manufactured articles n.e.s.

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Special transactions and commodities not classified according to kind

Other (mostly Agricultural)

Coin (other than gold coin), not being of legal tender

Not assigned

Military arms and ammunition

Defence

Sea transport

Transportation and Storage

Air transport

Transportation and Storage

Other transport

Transportation and Storage

Postal and courier services

Transportation and Storage

Telecommunications services

Technology, Software and Communication

Insurance services

Financial and Business Services

Financial services

Financial and Business Services

Computer and information services

Technology, Software and Communication

Merchanting and other trade-related services

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Operational leasing services

Financial and Business Services

Legal, accounting, management consulting, and public relations

Financial and Business Services

Advertising, market research, and public opinion polling

Financial and Business Services

Research and development

Life Sciences

Architectural, engineering, and other technical services

Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing

Agricultural, mining, and on-site processing services

Energy

Other business services

Financial and Business Services

Audiovisual and related services

Technology, Software and Communication

Education services

Education

Other

Sustainable Tourism

Mining Support Service Activities

9.3.5 Agricultural, mining, and on-site processing services

Wholesale and Retail Trade and Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles

9.1 Merchanting and other trade-related services

Wholesale Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles

9.1 Merchanting and other trade-related services

Retail Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles

9.1 Merchanting and other trade-related services

Land Transport and Transport via Pipelines

1.3 Other transport

Water Transport

1.1 Sea transport

Air Transport

1.2 Air transport

Warehousing and Support Activities for Transportation

1.3 Other transport

Postal and Courier Activities

3.1 Postal and courier services

Accommodation

Food and Beverage Service Activities

9.1 Merchanting and other trade-related services

Publishing Activities

9.3.6 Other business services

Motion Picture, Video and Television Programme Production, Sound Recording and Music Publishing Activities

10.1 Audiovisual and related services

Programming and Broadcasting Activities

10.1 Audiovisual and related services

Telecommunications

3.2 Telecommunications services

Computer Programming, Consultancy and Related Activities

7 Computer and information services

Information Service Activities

7 Computer and information services

Financial Service Activities, Except Insurance and Pension Funding

6 Financial services

Insurance, Reinsurance and Pension Funding, Except Compulsory Social Security

5 Insurance services

Activities Auxiliary to Financial Services and Insurance Activities

6 Financial services

Real Estate Activities

9.3.6 Other business services

Legal and Accounting Activities

9.3.1 Legal, accounting, management consulting, and public relations

Activities of Head Offices; Management Consultancy Activities

9.3.1 Legal, accounting, management consulting, and public relations

Architectural and Engineering Activities; Technical Testing and Analysis

9.3.4 Architectural, engineering, and other technical services

Scientific Research and Development

9.3.3 Research and development

Advertising and Market Research

9.3.2 Advertising, market research, and public opinion polling

Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities

9.3.6 Other business services

Rental and Leasing Activities

9.2 Operational leasing services

Employment Activities

9.3.6 Other business services

Travel Agency, Tour Operator and Other Reservation Service and Related Activities

Security and Investigation Activities

9.3.6 Other business services

Services to Building and Landscape Activities

9.3.6 Other business services

Office Administrative, Office Support and Other Business Support Activities

9.3.6 Other business services

Education

10.2.1 Education services

Creative, Arts and Entertainment Activities

10.2.3 Other

Libraries, Archives, Museums and Other Cultural Activities

10.2.3 Other

Repair of Computers and Personal Household Goods

9.1 Merchanting and other trade-related services

Algeria

Cyprus

Indonesia

Namibia

Slovakia

Angola

Czech Republic

Iran

Netherlands

Slovenia

Argentina

Denmark

Irish Republic

New Zealand

South Africa

Australia

Dominican Rep

Israel

Nigeria

Spain

Austria

Ecuador

Italy

Norway

Sri Lanka

Azerbaijan

Egypt

Jamaica

Oman

Sweden

Bahrain

Estonia

Japan

Pakistan

Switzerland

Bangladesh

Ethiopia

Jordan

Panama

Syria

Belgium

Finland

Kazakhstan

Peru

FYR Macedonia

Botswana

France

Kenya

Philippines

Thailand

Brazil

Georgia

Kuwait

Poland

Trinidad:Tobago

Bulgaria

Germany

Latvia

Portugal

Tunisia

Cameroon

Ghana

Lebanon

Qatar

Turkey

Canada

Greece

Lithuania

South Korea

Ukraine

Chile

Guatemala

Luxembourg

Romania

UAE

China

Guyana

Malaysia

Russia

Tanzania

Hong Kong

Honduras

Malta

Saudi Arabia

Uruguay

Colombia

Hungary

Mauritius

Senegal

United States

Costa Rica

Iceland

Mexico

Serbia

Vietnam

Croatia

India

Morocco

Singapore

Zimbabwe

Live animals other than animals of division 03

Finland

Meat & meat preparations

Finland

Dairy products & birds' eggs

Norway

Fish,crustaceans,molluscs & aq.inverts & preps thereof

Denmark

Cereals & cereal preparations

Finland

Vegetables & fruit

Ireland

Sugar, sugar preparations & honey

Finland

Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices & manufactures thereof

Norway

Feeding stuff for animals (not inc.unmilled cereals)

Norway

Miscellaneous edible products & preparations

Finland

Beverages

Ireland

Tobacco & tobacco manufactures

Finland

Oil seeds & oleaginous fruits

Ireland

Crude rubber (including synthetic & reclaimed)

Finland

Pulp & waste paper

Ireland

Textile fibres not manufactured & their waste etc

Ireland

Metalliferous ores & metal scrap

Ireland

Crude animal & vegetable materials n.e.s.

Ireland

Coal, coke & briquettes

Denmark

Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials

Norway

Gas, natural & manufactured

Finland

Animal oils & fats

Ireland

Fixed vegetable fats & oils, crude,refined,fractionated

Ireland

Animal or vegetable fats & oils, processed, & waxes

Norway

Organic chemicals

Denmark

Inorganic chemicals

Finland

Dyeing, tanning & colouring materials

Finland

Medicinal & pharmaceutical products

Finland

Essential oils & perfume materials; toilet preps etc

Finland

Fertilizers (other than those of group 272)

Finland

Plastics in primary forms

Ireland

Plastics in non-primary forms

Denmark

Chemical materials & products n.e.s.

Ireland

Leather, leather manufactures n.e.s & dressed furskins

Denmark

Rubber manufactures n.e.s.

Finland

Paper, paperboard & manufactures thereof

Denmark

Textile yarn, fabrics, made up articles etc

Denmark

Non-metallic mineral manufactures n.e.s.

Ireland

Iron & steel

Norway

Non-ferrous metals

Denmark

Manufactures of metal n.e.s.

Finland

Power generating machinery & equipment

Denmark

Machinery specialized for particular industries

Norway

Metalworking machinery

Denmark

General industrial machinery & eqp. & machine pt.n.e.s.

Finland

Office machines & adp machines

Denmark

Telecomms & sound recording & reproducing app. & eqp.

Finland

Ele machinery, app & appliances & ele pt thereof n.e.s.

Denmark

Road vehicles (including air cushion vehicles)

Norway

Other transport equipment

Finland

P/fab buildings;sanit.,plumbing,heating &lighting fixt.

Norway

Furniture & parts thereof; bedding, mattresses etc

Ireland

Travel goods, handbags & similar containers

Finland

Articles of apparel & clothing accessories

Finland

Footwear

Finland

Professional, scientific & controlling ins & app n.e.s.

Finland

Photographic & optical goods, n.e.s.; watches & clocks

Denmark

Miscellaneous manufactured articles n.e.s.

Finland

Coin (other than gold coin), not being of legal tender

Denmark

Sea transport

Poland

Air transport

Sweden

Other transport

Sweden

Postal and courier services

Sweden

Telecommunications services

Sweden

Insurance services

Denmark

Financial services

Ireland

Computer and information services

Sweden

Merchanting and other trade-related services

Sweden

Operational leasing services

Belgium

Legal, accounting, management consulting, and public relations

Sweden

Advertising, market research, and public opinion polling

Sweden

Research and development

Poland

Architectural, engineering, and other technical services

Sweden

Agricultural, mining, and on-site processing services

Netherlands

Other business services

Poland

Audiovisual and related services

Poland

Education services

Poland

Other

Belgium

Value of Scottish exports in sector, 2014-16 average

HMRC regional trade statistics, Scotland’s Export performance monitor (Scotland’s Export Performance Monitor)

Size of world import market in sector, 2014-16 average

UN COMTRADE

Long-term growth in Scotland’s exports in sector, absolute value, 2006-16

HMRC regional trade statistics, Scotland’s Export performance monitor (Scotland’s Export Performance Monitor)

Recent growth in Scotland’s exports in sector, absolute value, 2011-16

HMRC regional trade statistics, Scotland’s Export performance monitor (Scotland’s Export Performance Monitor)

Long-term growth in world imports in sector, absolute value, 2008-16

UN COMTRADE

Recent growth in world imports in sector, absolute value, 2011-16

UN COMTRADE

Value if Scotland were to increase world market share by half

HMRC regional trade statistics, Scotland’s Export performance monitor (Scotland’s Export Performance Monitor), UN COMTRADE

Total export value gap in sector

Output from the Export Value Gap model

Total export value strength in sector

Output from the Export Value Gap model

Opportunity concentration (% of export value gap in top 5 countries)

Output from the Export Value Gap model

Import growth concentration (% of world import growth coming from top 5 countries)

UN COMTRADE

Indicator

Source

Current exports and market size

Value of Scottish exports to country, 2014-16 average

HMRC regional trade statistics, Scotland’s Export performance monitor (Scotland’s Export Performance Monitor)

Size of country’s import market, 2016

UN COMTRADE

Distance to country

Long-term growth in Scotland’s exports to country, absolute value, 2006-16

HMRC regional trade statistics, Scotland’s Export performance monitor (Scotland’s Export Performance Monitor)

Recent growth in Scotland’s exports to country, absolute value, 2011-16

HMRC regional trade statistics, Scotland’s Export performance monitor (Scotland’s Export Performance Monitor)

Recent growth in country’s imports, absolute value, 2011-16

UN COMTRADE

Forecast country total imports, absolute value, 2018-23

IMF forecasts

Long-term population growth, increase in population, 2017-50

World Bank

Total export value gap in country

Output from the Export Value Gap model

Total export value strength in country

Output from the Export Value Gap model

Opportunity concentration (% of export value gap in top 5 sectors in country)

Output from the Export Value Gap model

Import growth concentration (% of country’s import growth coming from top 5 sectors)

UN COMTRADE

Country risk

Coface, https://www.coface.com/

Country business risk

Coface, https://www.coface.com/

Country simple average applied tariff

WTO