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Low carbon heating in domestic buildings - technical feasibility: cost appendix

Cost appendix to accompany the technical feasibility of low carbon heating in domestic buildings report.


3 Cost of low-carbon heating for common dwelling archetypes

The cost of the considered low-carbon heating technologies was investigated for 10 of the most common dwelling archetypes.

The selected archetypes include the 8 most populated archetypes, ranking highest in terms of the portion of the stock they represent. Additionally, the 13th and 22nd archetypes were also considered, as these are the most populated archetypes for which the counterfactual heating technology is oil boiler and electric heating respectively.

The characteristics of the 10 selected archetypes are summarised in Table 14. These archetypes are relatively diversified in terms of dwelling type, size, age and insulation characteristics, but their counterfactual heating technology is gas boiler for the majority of them. All archetypes represent together ~500 thousand homes, capturing ~20% of Scotland’s housing stock.

Table 14: Characteristics of the selected most common archetypes
Archetype ranking Property Type Size Age Wall Insulation Roof Insulation (mm) Counterfactual Space heating demand in 2020 (kWh/yr) Space heating demand in 2040 (kWh/yr) Hot water demand in 2020 and 2040 (kWh/yr) Stock
1 Semi detached Medium 1919 to 1991 CWI More than 250 Gas boiler 10,144 8,383 2,251 111,180
2 Flat (other) Small Pre 1919 SWU None Gas boiler 6,345 3,272 1,426 64,389
3 Flat (other) Medium 1919 to 1991 CWI None Gas boiler 7,134 5,522 1,901 55,533
4 Semi detached Medium 1919 to 1991 CWI 100 to 250 Gas boiler 10,358 8,779 2,298 55,427
5 Flat (other) Small 1919 to 1991 CWI None Gas boiler 5,640 4,272 1,646 47,361
6 Flat (other) Medium Pre 1919 SWU None Gas boiler 9,608 5,747 1,854 45,069
7 Detached Large Post 1991 SWI More than 250 Gas boiler 11,571 10,756 1,671 40,928
8 Terraced Medium 1919 to 1991 CWI More than 250 Gas boiler 9,089 7,028 2,150 37,325
13 Detached Large Pre 1919 SWU Room in roof Oil boiler 26,130 16,148 2,956 20,288
22 Flat (other) Small Pre 1919 SWU None Electric storage 6,321 4,312 1,420 17,245

The following sections report the results of this study on the cost of each investigated low-carbon heating technology for the above reported common archetypes. For each technology, the total cost is shown disaggregated into the four main cost components: heating system cost, maintenance cost, additional cost and fuel cost. The technologies labelled in red are those for which the considered archetype is unsuitable, considering fuse limit of 80A and peak specific heating demand of 120 W/m2.

For these outputs the cost of hydrogen from both electrolysis and reforming was assumed to be that of the high demand scenario. The fuel utilised by hybrid heat pumps was assumed to be hydrogen from reforming. 9

3.1 Archetype 1

Figure 10: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 1 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 1. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of a gas boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are air and  ground source heat pumps, high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, electric storage heating, direct electric heating, biomass boilers, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, resistive heating, resistive and hot water cylinder) district heating, and heating technologies in combination with solar thermal (air source heat pump and solar, electric storage and solar and direct electric and solar).
Figure 11: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 1 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for housing archetype 1. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 10.

3.2 Archetype 2

Figure 12: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 2 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 2. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of a gas boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are air and ground source heat pumps, high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, communal air source heat pumps, electric storage heating, direct electric heating, electric boiler, biomass boilers, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, resistive heating, resistive and hot water cylinder) district heating, and heating technologies in combination with solar thermal (air source heat pump and solar, electric storage and solar, direct electric and solar, and electric boiler and solar).
Figure 13: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 2 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for housing archetype 2. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of a gas boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 12.

3.3 Archetype 3

Figure 14: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 3 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 3. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of a gas boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, communal air source heat pumps, electric storage heating, direct electric heating, electric boiler, biomass boilers, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, resistive heating, resistive and hot water cylinder) district heating, and heating technologies in combination with solar thermal (air source heat pump and solar, electric storage and solar, direct electric and solar and electric boiler and solar).
Figure 15: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 3 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for housing archetype 3. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 14.

3.4 Archetype 4

Figure 16: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 4 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 4. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of a gas boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, electric storage heating, direct electric heating, biomass boilers, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, resistive heating, resistive and hot water cylinder) district heating, and heating technologies in combination with solar thermal (air source heat pump and solar, electric storage and solar and direct electric and solar).
Figure 17: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 4 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for the housing archetype 4. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 16.

3.5 Archetype 5

Figure 18: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 5 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 5. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of a gas boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, communal air source heat pumps, electric storage heating, direct electric heating, electric boiler, biomass boilers, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, resistive heating, resistive and hot water cylinder) district heating, and heating technologies in combination with solar thermal (air source heat pump and solar, electric storage and solar, direct electric and solar and electric boiler and solar).
Figure 19: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 5 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for housing archetype 5. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 18.

3.6 Archetype 6

Figure 20: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 6 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 6. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of a gas boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, electric storage heating, direct electric heating, biomass boilers, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, resistive heating, resistive and hot water cylinder) district heating, and heating technologies in combination with solar thermal (air source heat pump and solar, electric storage and solar and direct electric and solar).
Figure 21: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 6 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for housing archetype 6. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 20.

3.7 Archetype 7

Figure 22: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 7 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 7. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of a gas boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, biomass boilers, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, resistive heating, resistive and hot water cylinder) district heating, and heating technologies in combination with solar thermal (air source heat pump and solar, electric storage and solar).
Figure 23: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 7 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for housing archetype 7. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 22.

3.8 Archetype 8

Figure 24: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 8 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 8. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of a gas boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, electric storage heating, direct electric heating, biomass boilers, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, resistive heating, resistive and hot water cylinder) district heating, and heating technologies in combination with solar thermal (air source heat pump and solar, electric storage and solar and direct electric and solar).
Figure 25: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 8 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for housing archetype 8. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 24.

3.9 Archetype 13

Figure 26: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 13 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 13. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of an oil boiler which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, biomass boilers, bioLPG boilers, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, bioliquid and bioliquid and hot water cylinder) and district heating.
Figure 27: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 13 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for housing archetype 13. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 26 but assumes that by 2040 this housing archetype will in addition to those stated also be suitable for air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, electric storage heating, hybrid systems (with electric resistive heating, and electric resistive heating and hot water cylinder), air source heat pump with solar and electric storage heating with solar.

3.10 Archetype 22

Figure 28: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 22 in 2020
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on 2020 figures for housing archetype 22. The bar chart compares the technologies against the figures of an electric storage heater which provides a counter factual comparator. The investigated technologies are air source heat pumps, ground source heat pumps, high temperature air and ground source heat pumps, communal air source heat pumps, electric storage heating, direct electric heating, electric boiler, biomass boiler, bioLPG boiler, bioliquid B100 boiler, hydrogen boilers (both electrolysis and reforming), biomethane grid injection, hybrid heat pumps (with gas, gas and hot water cylinder, hydrogen, hydrogen and hot water cylinder, resistive heating, resistive and hot water cylinder and bioliquid and bioliquid with hot water cylinder) district heating, and heating technologies in combination with solar thermal (air source heat pump and solar, electric storage and solar, direct electric and solar, and electric boiler and solar).
Figure 29: Cost of the investigated technologies for archetype 22 in 2040
A bar chart split over two levels showing the breakdown of costs in £p/KWhr of each technology into fuel costs, maintenance costs, additional costs and the cost of the heating system based on projected 2040 figures for housing archetype 22. The investigated technologies are the same as those included in figure 28.

Contact

Email: zeroemissionsheat@gov.scot

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