Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group minutes: November 2025

Attendees and apologies

• Stuart Robb, Scottish Government (SG, Joint Chair - ‘Chair’ in minutes)
• Carrie McLennan, Scottish Council of Deans of Education (SCDE, Joint Chair, referred to by name in minutes)
• Alasdair Anthony, SG
• Stuart Bain, Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA)
• David Barnett, School Leaders Scotland (SLS)
• Gavin Bruce, Scottish Funding Council (SFC)
• Scarlett Campbell, SFC
• Greg Dempster, Association of Heads and Deputes Scotland (AHDS)
• Sheena Devlin, Association of Directors of Education in Scotland (ADES)
• Arran Finlay, ADES Resources Network
• Iain Grant, Aberdeen University
• Glenda Gray, Society of Personnel and Development Scotland (SPDS) Portfolio Sub for Scottish Negotiating Council for Teachers (SNCT)
• Terry Gray, Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS)
• Simon Hoult, Queen Margaret University
• David Nicholson, SG
• Wesley Rennison, University of Strathclyde
• Pauline Stephen, General Teaching Council for Scotland (GTCS)
• Fiona Thomson, SPDS Portfolio Lead for SNCT
• Catherine Whitley, University of Strathclyde
• Rachel Woods, ADES Resources Network
• Ben Morley, SG (Secretariat)
• Sandip Mahajan, SG (Secretariat)

Apologies:

• Tracey Gillespie, SPDS Portfolio Sub for SNCT
• Hulda Sveinsdottir, Aberdeen University

Items and actions

Note - where directly linking, comments from the online meeting ‘chat’ have been incorporated into the relevant item within the minutes.

Item 1 - Welcome and Introductions

The Chair set out the aim of the meeting to consider sector wide intake targets for initial teacher education (ITE) courses.

Item 2 - Minutes from previous meeting held on 31st October 2024

Members confirmed the earlier clarification: modelling should also consider the impact of reduced class contact time.

Item 3 - Topical Updates/Considerations

Key updates highlighted:

• Joint SG/COSLA work on a national education workforce planning strategy.
• Strategic Board for Teacher Education (SBTE) activity on workforce planning and a teacher recruitment campaign launching in the new year.
• An upcoming Cabinet Secretary roundtable on teacher recruitment and longer term workforce planning.

Item 4 - General Teaching Council for Scotland’s Annual Registration Report: Data and Insight (1 April 2024 - 31 March 2025)

Main points presented:

• Over 81,000 registered teachers (93,000 registrations), with a slight decline in both.
• Secondary numbers falling more than primary; languages showing mixed trends.
• Retention concerns: many leavers under 46; retirements drive exits in older cohorts.
• Issues around provisional registration and more graduates choosing flexible routes rather than the Teacher Induction Scheme.
• Interest from members in supporting GTCS’ additional registration work, data sharing and exploring dual registration opportunities.

Action 1 - Member/s interested in GTCS’ additional registration work to contact Pauline Stephen.

Action 2 - Rachel Woods to share details of her data work on registration.

Item 5 - Recruitment to initial teacher education (ITE) in 2025-26

Highlights discussed:

• Reductions in primary PGDE interest and continued shortfalls in secondary PGDE and hard to fill subjects.
• UG intakes below target at both primary and secondary.
• Members noted possible external factors affecting primary recruitment (e.g., concerns about permanent jobs, negative media coverage).
• GTCS and providers highlighted the need for clearer understanding of course provision and better shared datasets.
• Discussion of course viability concerns due to significant PGDE reductions, particularly for providers reliant on PGDE courses.
• Recognition that national structured approaches are needed for creating/ending courses, improving outcomes, and linking intakes to policy aims.

Action 3 - Secretariat to circulate breakdown of providers’ provisional final intake returns (note - emailed returns to members on 12 November).

Item 6 - Teacher Workforce Planning Exercise 2025 - Statistical Model

Key modelling insights:

• Model aims to maintain teacher numbers at 53,500 FTE.
• PGDE intake estimates required for 2026–27: 530 primary, 970 secondary, with static UG assumptions.
• Total intake requirements: 1,260 primary, 1,240 secondary.
• Discussion noted differing trends: primary pupils decreasing faster than teachers; secondary Pupil-Teacher-Ratio (PTR) relatively high but expected to fall in later years.
• Factors incorporated into the modelling included maternity leave, retirements, non-completion of ITE, and employment rates of teachers completing the Teacher Induction Scheme (TIS).
• Providers expressed concern about disproportionate impacts of large PDGE reductions and emphasised need for flexibility between UG and PGDE.
• Members noted the need to factor in requirements such as reduced class contact time and quality of retention.
• SFC expressed preference for collective engagement with providers to support consistent planning.

Action 4 - Secretariat to set up a providers’ planning meeting with the SFC

Recommendations on ITE (PDGE) intake targets for 2026-27:

• Primary that 1) a range of options to PDGE intakes are considered from no changes (remaining at 784) through to no more than a reduction of 150; and 2) individual providers have flexibility to manage any cuts across their PDGE and UG intake targets
• Secondary that the intake target for PDGE is reduced to 1,500

Therefore the targets for 2026-27 would be:

• Primary 1,561 (down to 1,411) - 777 UG/combined degree and 784 PGDE (down to minimum of 634);
• Secondary 1,836 - 336 UG/combined degree and 1,500 PGDE.

Item 7 - Review of scope / remit of the TWPAG

Item not discussed due to time.

Action 5 - Secretariat to recirculate this paper, outlining a review and scope of TWPAG, for members’ comments.

Item 8 - Next steps

Recommendations will be submitted to the Cabinet Secretary. Guidance to SFC and further meetings with SCDE/ITE providers will follow to finalise allocations.

Item 9 - Any other business

No items raised.

Item 10 - Date of next meeting

To be scheduled in 2026 unless an earlier meeting is needed. A separate meeting with providers and SFC will be arranged for allocation decisions (note - this effectively took place on 27th January).

Meeting closed 11.40.

TWPAG Secretariat

February 2026