Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group minutes: November 2025

Attendees and apologies

• Stuart Robb, Scottish Government (SG, Joint Chair - ‘Chair’ in minutes)
• Carrie McLennan, Scottish Council of Deans of Education (SCDE, Joint Chair, referred to by name in minutes)
• Alasdair Anthony, SG
• Stuart Bain, Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA)
• David Barnett, School Leaders Scotland (SLS)
• Gavin Bruce, Scottish Funding Council (SFC)
• Scarlett Campbell, SFC
• Greg Dempster, Association of Heads and Deputes Scotland (AHDS)
• Sheena Devlin, Association of Directors of Education in Scotland (ADES)
• Arran Finlay, ADES Resources Network
• Iain Grant, Aberdeen University
• Glenda Gray, Society of Personnel and Development Scotland (SPDS) Portfolio Sub for Scottish Negotiating Council for Teachers (SNCT)
• Terry Gray, Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS)
• Simon Hoult, Queen Margaret University
• David Nicholson, SG
• Wesley Rennison, University of Strathclyde
• Pauline Stephen, General Teaching Council for Scotland (GTCS)
• Fiona Thomson, SPDS Portfolio Lead for SNCT
• Catherine Whitley, University of Strathclyde
• Rachel Woods, ADES Resources Network
• Ben Morley, SG (Secretariat)
• Sandip Mahajan, SG (Secretariat)

Apologies

• Tracey Gillespie, SPDS Portfolio Sub for SNCT
• Hulda Sveinsdottir, Aberdeen University

Items and actions

Note - where directly linking, comments from the online meeting ‘chat’ have been incorporated into the relevant item within the minutes.

Welcome and introductions

The Chair set out the aim of the meeting to consider sector wide intake targets for initial teacher education (ITE) courses.

Minutes from previous meeting held on 31 October 2024

Members confirmed the earlier clarification: modelling should also consider the impact of reduced class contact time.

Topical updates/considerations

Key updates highlighted:

• joint SG/COSLA work on a national education workforce planning strategy

• Strategic Board for Teacher Education (SBTE) activity on workforce planning and a teacher recruitment campaign launching in the new year

• an upcoming Cabinet Secretary roundtable on teacher recruitment and longer term workforce planning

General Teaching Council for Scotland’s annual registration report: data and insight (1 April 2024 - 31 March 2025)

Main points presented:

• over 81,000 registered teachers (93,000 registrations), with a slight decline in both

• secondary numbers falling more than primary; languages showing mixed trends

• retention concerns: many leavers under 46; retirements drive exits in older cohorts

• issues around provisional registration and more graduates choosing flexible routes rather than the Teacher Induction Scheme

• interest from members in supporting GTCS’ additional registration work, data sharing and exploring dual registration opportunities

Action 1 - member/s interested in GTCS’ additional registration work to contact Pauline Stephen

Action 2 - Rachel Woods to share details of her data work on registration

Recruitment to initial teacher education (ITE) in 2025-26

Highlights discussed:

• reductions in primary PGDE interest and continued shortfalls in secondary PGDE and hard to fill subjects

• UG intakes below target at both primary and secondary

• members noted possible external factors affecting primary recruitment (e.g., concerns about permanent jobs, negative media coverage)

• GTCS and providers highlighted the need for clearer understanding of course provision and better shared datasets

• discussion of course viability concerns due to significant PGDE reductions, particularly for providers reliant on PGDE courses

• recognition that national structured approaches are needed for creating/ending courses, improving outcomes, and linking intakes to policy aims

Action 3 - Secretariat to circulate breakdown of providers’ provisional final intake returns (note - emailed returns to members on 12 November)

Teacher workforce planning exercise 2025 - statistical model

Key modelling insights:

• model aims to maintain teacher numbers at 53,500 FTE

• PGDE intake estimates required for 2026–27: 530 primary, 970 secondary, with static UG assumptions

• total intake requirements: 1,260 primary, 1,240 secondary

• discussion noted differing trends: primary pupils decreasing faster than teachers; secondary Pupil-Teacher-Ratio (PTR) relatively high but expected to fall in later years

• factors incorporated into the modelling included maternity leave, retirements, non-completion of ITE, and employment rates of teachers completing the Teacher Induction Scheme (TIS)

• providers expressed concern about disproportionate impacts of large PDGE reductions and emphasised need for flexibility between UG and PGDE

• members noted the need to factor in requirements such as reduced class contact time and quality of retention

• SFC expressed preference for collective engagement with providers to support consistent planning

Action 4 - secretariat to set up a providers’ planning meeting with the SFC

Recommendations on ITE (PDGE) intake targets for 2026-27:

• primary that 1) a range of options to PDGE intakes are considered from no changes (remaining at 784) through to no more than a reduction of 150; and 2) individual providers have flexibility to manage any cuts across their PDGE and UG intake targets

• secondary that the intake target for PDGE is reduced to 1,500

Therefore the targets for 2026-27 would be:

• primary 1,561 (down to 1,411) - 777 UG/combined degree and 784 PGDE (down to minimum of 634)

• secondary 1,836 - 336 UG/combined degree and 1,500 PGDE

Review of scope / remit of the TWPAG

Item not discussed due to time.

Action 5 - secretariat to recirculate this paper, outlining a review and scope of TWPAG, for members’ comments

Next steps

Recommendations will be submitted to the Cabinet Secretary. Guidance to SFC and further meetings with SCDE/ITE providers will follow to finalise allocations.

Any other business

No items raised.

Date of next meeting

To be scheduled in 2026 unless an earlier meeting is needed. A separate meeting with providers and SFC will be arranged for allocation decisions (note - this effectively took place on 27 January).

Meeting closed 11.40.

TWPAG Secretariat

February 2026