Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group minutes: October 2024

Attendees and apologies

• Stuart Robb, Scottish Government (Joint Chair)
• Carrie McLennan, Scottish Council of Deans Education (SCDE)(Joint Chair)
• Hulda Sveinsdottir, Aberdeen University
• Michael Wood, Association of Directors Education in Scotland (ADES)
• Michael Boyle, Association of Directors Education in Scotland (ADES) ADES Resources Network
• Greg Dempster, Association of Head and Deputes in Scotland AHDS
• Stuart Bain, Convention of Scottish Local Authorities COSLA
• Suzanne McLeod, Convention of Scottish Local Authorities COSLA
• Pauline Stephen, General Teaching Council Scotland GTCS
• Gavin Bruce, Scottish Funding Council SFC
• Scarlett Campbell, Scottish Funding Council SFC
• David Barnett, SLS
• Glenda Gray, SPDS
• Morag Redford, UHI
• Wes Rennison, University of Strathclyde
• Alasdair Anthony, Scottish Government
• Zak Tuck, Scottish Government
• Scott Brand, Scottish Government
• Annabella Balloch, Scottish Government

Items and actions

Welcome/introductions

The Chair welcomed members and stated that the purpose of the meeting was to agree intake targets for initial teacher education (ITE) programmes at a national level. These targets will be provided as recommendations to the Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills.

 

Minutes of meeting on 2 September 2024

Members did not offer any comments on the minutes and the chair said that these would be published in due course.

Recruitment to ITE programmes in 2024/25

Secretariat presented the provisional intake figures received from universities. These are not official statistics and are used for planning purposes as higher education statistics agency statistics are not released until 2025.

The main headlines reported were:

• Primary targets met and exceeded for PGDE while U/G slightly under target by 6%. This results in a combined 104% against target.

• Secondary targets not met for either PGDE or U/G. PGDE achieved 53% of target and U/G at 81%. This results in a combined 57% against target.

• Overall, there were 3,118 recruited against the target of 4,070 which is 77%.

 

SBTE Workstream 1 - Workforce Planning and Increasing Diversity of the Profession

Secretariat updated the group on work to better understand local and national recruitment planning. The following points were made:

• SBTE Workstream 1 sub-group established, jointly led by SG and COSLA with ADES, SFC and SCDE membership.

• Bi-lateral meetings held with select local authorities to understand local workforce planning. Planning is robust with consideration of teacher age, subject choice and pupil roll. However, local authorities are usually planning on a one-year basis and moving away from this model could be challenging.

• SG analysis has indicated secondary teacher supply affecting rural local authorities to a greater extent.

Members made the following points:

• There has been a 7% increase of teachers reporting being on supply lists from 2023 to 2024. The management of supply lists is impacting on the offer of permanent posts, with only those teachers nearing permanency getting an offer.

• Need for more information on supply lists and this is made more complex as teachers can be on more than one local authority list.

• The costs of employing a teacher had risen in recent years which will impact the numbers that can be recruited on permanent contracts.

• A lack of teachers graduating from Initial Teacher Education (ITE) in certain subjects will negatively impact rural local authorities as the graduates are more likely to get their preferred Teacher Induction Scheme (TIS) authority placement in the central belt.

• SG to consider gathering more information on teacher vacancies and supply lists.

 

Teacher Workforce Planning 2024 Exercise – Statistical Model

Secretariat introduced this paper and the following points were made:

• The teacher workforce planning model estimates the size of the future teaching workforce, based on current data and assumptions about inflows and outflows to the pool of employed teachers.

• In this instance, the model was used to determine the level of ITE intake required to maintain teacher numbers at 2023 levels.

• The age profile of the profession is considered stable and will not impact significantly on the modelling

• Pupil numbers are decreasing and expected to fall over the next 10 years. The primary school roll has been falling since reaching a peak in 2017 while the secondary pupil roll increased in 2017 and is projected to continue increasing until 2025, after which it will fall through to the end of the projection period in 2035.

• The implications of maintaining teacher numbers for each sector for the pupil : teacher ratio (PTR) is that the primary PTR which is near its lowest ever level at 15.3 in 2023 will reduce further to 13.1 by 2029. In contrast, the secondary PTR was 12.5 in 2023, which is very close to the highest level, will increase to 12.8 before dropping to 12.3 by 2029. Combing all sectors the PTR will fall from 13.2 in 2023 to 12.0 in 2029 by maintaining teacher numbers due to falling pupil rolls.

• Modelled PGDE intakes are based on no change to U/G and Combined targets.

• For 2025/26 the modelled PGDE ITE intake requirements are 740 for primary and 910 for secondary.

• The overall modelled ITE intake requirements for 2025/26 across BEd and PGDE are therefore 1,500 for primary and 1,150 for secondary.

 

General Discussion

Members made the following points:

Primary Targets

• The proposed primary PGDE intakes for 2025/26 identified in the model are in line with a 10% reduction to the overall primary numbers. This is required as the modelling paper highlights the number of primary teachers post-probation without permanent contracts. A suggestion of protecting universities primarily serving rural areas also needs to be factored into the final distribution of the national target.

• Clarity required on plans to implement the reduction in class contact time for teachers, which may require more teachers, and how this sits alongside a proposed reduction in primary ITE intakes.  

• On the rurality issue, there are different views as to whether  protecting some universities from reductions will have the desired effect as where a student studies does not necessarily reflect their choice of location for their probation year.

• It is important that there are realistic job prospects for primary teachers. Universities need the flexibility to reduce either or both their PGDE and U/G. One university only has U/G primary provision.

• The impact on smaller universities will be significant and a 5% reduction to primary ITE intakes for 2025/26, with a 10% reduction in 2026/27 would be more sustainable than a 10% cut each year.

• Need to focus on using current teachers with an initiative to allow them to add a  further registration category. Those not in employment face becoming de-skilled.

• Financial situation for universities is very challenging and the proposed target reductions may lead to staff reductions and could undermine the place of ITE in those institutions.

Secondary Targets

• As some secondary subject ITE targets are being met, whilst others are significantly short, there is a risk that the curriculum offer to pupils could be skewed.

• An option would be to keep the higher aspirational target and set a reduced target for clawback purposes.

• Discussion on recommending an option to reduce in the secondary ITE target from 2,000, as it was for 2024/25, to 1,500.

• Gaelic Medium Education should be a separate target within PGDE subjects.

Next steps

• SG will submit advice to the Cabinet Secretary on intake targets informed by discussion with, and recommendations from, TWPAG. This will be that overall primary targets are reduced by 5% in 2025/26 and 10% in 2026/27.

• Further discussion will be needed between SCDE, SFC and SG regarding the primary reduction and how it is applied to individual universities.

• For secondary PGDE the advice will be to consider an option of reducing the target from 2,000 to 1,500.