Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (Scottish Carbon Budgets) Amendment Regulations 2025: statement

Background

The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2024 (“the 2024 Act”) came into force in November 2024 and replaced the previous emissions reduction targets framework in the 2009 Act with a framework of carbon budgets. The net zero emissions target year of 2045 remained unchanged. The net zero emissions target year is the year by which the net Scottish emissions account is at least 100% lower than Baseline.

The 2024 Act requires that, before finalising their preparation of draft regulations to set Scottish carbon budgets, Ministers must receive advice from the CCC on setting carbon budgets. The 2009 Act provides that the CCC advice must be taken into account when preparing the draft regulations. Scottish Ministers received an embargoed copy of the CCC’s Scotland Carbon Budgets report on 19 May 2025, and it was published it on 21 May 2025.

Extent to which each of the proposed Scottish carbon budgets take account of the target-setting criteria

This section sets out, in respect of each Scottish carbon budget, the extent to which the proposed Scottish carbon budget takes account of the target-setting criteria listed in section 2B of the 2009 Act.

In preparing the 2025 Regulations, Scottish Ministers have taken account of the target-setting criteria in section 2B of the 2009 Act in relation to each proposed Scottish carbon budget. Those target-setting criteria are also reflected in the advice provided by the CCC in its Scotland’s Carbon Budgets report and its assessment of a credible pathway to Scotland’s net zero emissions target year of 2045:

(a) The objective of not exceeding the fair and safe Scottish emissions budget:^[2]

• This commitment is met by the overarching net zero emissions target in 2045 and the Scottish carbon budgets have been designed to be deliverable and consistent with that overarching target.

(b) European and international law and policy relating to climate change (including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and protocols to that Convention):

• The Scottish carbon budget levels have been developed to deliver net zero to ensure that they are consistent with commitments in international law, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, namely by setting a limit on the amount of greenhouse gases Scotland is able to release into the atmosphere.

(c) scientific knowledge about climate change:

• The Scottish carbon budget levels have been developed by Scottish Ministers following consideration of the advice provided by the CCC. The advice in the Scotland’s Carbon Budgets report provided by the CCC has its basis in the latest scientific knowledge. In turn, Scottish Ministers have taken this advice into account in the development of the Scottish carbon budget levels. Scottish Ministers have also been receiving expert advice from organisations to support the development of the next CCP including, but not limited to, NatureScot, Scottish Environment Protection Agency, ClimateXChange, First Minister’s Environment Council and the Scottish Science Advisory Council.

(d) technology relevant to climate change:

• Scottish Ministers have developed the Scottish carbon budget levels with reference to the current assessment of latest technological evidence relevant to climate change and emissions reduction, as presented in the CCC’s Scotland’s Carbon Budgets report and the Scottish Ministers’ own analytical work.

(e) economic circumstances, in particular the likely impact of the target on the Scottish economy, the competitiveness of particular sectors of the Scottish economy, small and medium-sized enterprises and jobs and employment opportunities:

• Scottish Ministers have analysed the economic impacts of emissions reduction, including the likely impact of each of the Scottish carbon budgets on the Scottish economy, the competitiveness of specific sectors, small- and medium-sized enterprise and employment opportunities. A Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment for the Scottish carbon budgets has been published alongside the 2025 Regulations. This assesses the costs, benefits and risks of proposed legislation that impact the public, private or third sector.

(f) fiscal circumstances, in particular the likely impact of the target on taxation, public spending and public borrowing:

• Scottish Ministers have considered the likely impact of each of the Scottish carbon budgets on fiscal circumstances during the development of the 2025 Regulations. This includes an estimate of whole-economy costs and benefits of delivering net zero that are included in the CCC’s advice. The CCC advice outlines the requirement for significant upfront investment (peaking annually within the first Scottish carbon budget period) which will generate operating cost savings for the Scottish economy which are forecast to rise throughout the Scottish carbon budget periods to 2045. As outlined in the CCC advice, delaying decarbonisation investment will delay the benefits, including operating cost savings, improved resilience, and energy security. Ensuring Scottish carbon budget targets are met will require close working between the public and private sectors, as public sector spending alone will not be sufficient to meet the costs. Spend on climate mitigation is subject to the Scottish Government’s Accountable Officer process reflecting propriety, regulatory, value for money and affordability and feasibility.

(g) social circumstances, in particular the likely impact of the target on those living in poorer or deprived communities:

• Scottish Ministers have considered the likely impact of each of the Scottish carbon budgets on those living in poorer or deprived communities during the development of the 2025 Regulations. To do this, Scottish Ministers have assessed the likely outcomes of the policies that would be required to meet the Scottish carbon budgets to ensure they do not disproportionately affect those living in poorer or deprived communities. The following impact assessments have been conducted as part of the development process for the 2025 Regulations:
  • Equality Impact Assessment – This ensures specific policies and legislation do not discriminate against or disadvantage specific groups in society.
  • Fairer Scotland Duty Assessment – This places a legal duty on public bodies to consider how they can reduce inequality of outcome caused by socio-economic factors when making strategic decisions.

(h) the likely impact of the target on public health:

• Scottish Ministers have considered the potential impacts of each of the Scottish carbon budgets on public health. In its Scotland’s Carbon Budgets report, the CCC commented that the transition to net zero emissions is expected to have a positive impact on public health, through factors like improved air quality, increased active travel and healthier diets. Scottish Ministers have taken this advice into account and it supports their own expectations that the transition will likely improve public health through cleaner air, warmer homes in the winter and a more active population.

(i) the likely impact of the target on those living in remote rural communities and island communities:

• Scottish Ministers have considered the potential impacts of each of the Scottish carbon budgets on those living in remote, rural and island communities during development of the proposed Scottish carbon budgets. These communities are affected by the impacts of climate change and the CCC’s Scotland’s Carbon Budget report highlighted that Scotland’s rural and island communities are potentially affected by emissions reductions policies in particular sectors, such as agriculture, transport and land use, in different ways than urban populations. This advice has been taken into account and an Island Communities Impact Assessment has been published alongside the 2025 Regulations. This ensures that island communities receive fair treatment and that legislation is tailored to their unique circumstances.

(j) energy policy, in particular, the likely impact of the target on energy supplies, the renewable energy sector and the carbon and energy intensity of the Scottish economy:

• Through the policies and actions required to meet the Scottish carbon budgets targets, Scottish Ministers can reduce the carbon intensity of the Scottish economy. The likely impact of each of the Scottish carbon budgets is that Scotland moves further away from fossil fuel usage and the demand for electricity increases.

(k) environmental considerations and, in particular, the likely impact of the target on biodiversity:

• The policies and actions required to meet each Scottish carbon budget target and net zero emission target will likely have positive impacts on the environment and biodiversity, both from the mitigation of climate change and from specific policies designed to improve land use in Scotland. A Strategic Environmental Assessment (“SEA”) is typically carried out to assess the likely impacts of a particular policy on the environment. Consultation authorities have confirmed that the secondary legislation will not need an SEA due to its minimal direct impacts.

(l) the likely impact of the target on the achievement of sustainable development, including the achievement of the United Nations sustainable development goals:

• Scottish Ministers have considered the impacts of each of the Scottish carbon budgets on the achievement of the United Nations sustainable development goals. The Scottish carbon budgets directly promote the goal of ‘climate action’ by placing a duty on Ministers to ensure that emissions do not exceed them, in a way that is deliverable. Through the creation of policy to achieve this deliverable pathway to net zero in 2045, the Scottish carbon budgets will have further, indirect, positive or neutral impacts on the remaining 16 goals: no poverty; zero hunger; good health and wellbeing; quality education; gender equality; clean water and sanitation; affordable and clean energy; decent work and economic growth; industry, innovation and infrastructure; reduced inequalities; sustainable cities and communities; responsible consumption and production; life below water; life on land; peace, justice and strong institutions; and partnerships for the goals. Emissions reduction targets and the policies and actions required to deliver them contribute to the achievement of sustainable development goals.

(m) current international carbon reporting practice:

• The carbon budget framework, established by the 2024 Act’s amendments to the 2009 Act, maintained the reporting practices used for the previous framework for reduction of emissions in the 2009 Act, a framework consistent with international reporting practice underpinned by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. As such, the measurement and reporting on greenhouse gas emissions will remain consistent with international reporting practice.

The 2025 Regulations are limited to setting the Scottish carbon budgets and they will not set out or dictate any policies or actions required to deliver the Scottish Government’s emissions reduction targets. After regulations setting Scottish carbon budgets are approved by the Scottish Parliament, the proposals and policies to meet the first three Scottish carbon budget targets will be set out in the next CCP. This is being developed for publication in draft before the end of the period of 2 months beginning with the day the regulations setting the Scottish carbon budgets come into force. In addition to those completed for the 2025 Regulations, full impact assessments will be conducted for the policies and actions in the next CCP, covering the period from 2026 to 2040.

Whether, in respect of each Scottish carbon budget, the proposed Scottish carbon budget is in accordance with the most up-to-date advice the Scottish Ministers have received from the CCC and, if it is not, the reasons why

The Scottish carbon budget levels proposed by the 2025 Regulations are in accordance with the levels recommended by the CCC in the Scotland’s Carbon Budget report.

The CCC expresses its carbon budgets as a percentage lower than Baseline, whereas the proposed Scottish carbon budgets are expressed as a percentage of the baseline multiplied by 5 (for the number of years comprising the carbon budgets). The expressions are inverse to each other, so the figures have been converted to the number of MtCO2e in order to demonstrate their equivalence.

The levels for the Scottish carbon budgets proposed in the 2025 Regulations have been developed by Scottish Ministers taking into account the advice provided by the CCC in their Scotland's Carbon Budgets report. The advice from the CCC has been considered alongside other information available to Scottish Ministers.

While the levels of the proposed Scottish carbon budgets match those of the CCC’s advice, there are nonetheless areas in which our sector pathways are likely to diverge from those contained in the CCC’s balanced pathway in terms of either the overall contribution that a sector can be expected to make to delivering a carbon budget target, the specific actions or the pace of change. As the CCC makes clear, the Committee provides advice but does not set policy and so decisions remain with the Scottish Government and the Scottish Parliament. For the avoidance of doubt, the pathway that is set out within the CCP will reflect the Scottish Ministers’ proposed pathway to net zero – this means that for agriculture and peatland we will not follow the CCC’s specific recommendations, instead we will implement solutions to ensure we meet our net zero and nature obligations in a way which works for rural communities.

In indicative terms, set out the proposals and policies in relation to each of the sectors mentioned in section 35(3) of the 2009 Act which are likely to be set out in the next CCP due to be laid before the Scottish Parliament, if the 2025 Regulations are approved

This section sets out the proposals and policies likely to be contained in the next CCP. These proposals and policies are an indication and do not represent the comprehensive, finalised package. This information should be used for an indication of the proposals and policies which may be included in the next CCP, rather than the actions outlined in the CCC’s advice.