Global growth remains resilient in 2018.
- Following faster grow in 2017, the pace of global growth has stabilised in the first half of 2018.
- The IMF report growth has become less synchronised in 2018 with a more mixed picture across Advanced Economies and Emerging Market and Developing Economies.
- World trade volumes have moderated slightly in 2018 with heightened trade tensions a key factor for the outlook.
- Higher oil prices have supported activity for energy exporters and has contributed to upward pressure on inflation.
- Despite greater imbalances, the IMF forecast growth to remain stable in 2018 and 2019 at 3.7%.
US GDP growth remains solid in 2018.
- US GDP growth continued to strengthen in the first half of 2018 growing 2.9% in Q2 (annually), up from 2.6% in Q1.
- The US labour market remains buoyant in the second half of 2018 with unemployment falling to 3.7% in September.
- Average hourly earnings rose 2.8% annually (0.5% in real terms).
- US CPI inflation picked-up to 2.9% in June/July before easing back to 2.3% in September.
- The IMF forecast US GDP growth to accelerate to 2.9% in 2018 before easing slightly to 2.5% in 2019.
Euro Area growth has eased in 2018.
- Euro Area growth has moderated in 2018 growing 2.1% annually in Q2, down from 2.4% previously.
- The Euro Area unemployment rate fell to 8.1% in August, the lowest rate since November 2008.
- Latest data show unemployment rates ranged from 3.4% in Germany to 19.1% in Greece.
- Euro Area CPI inflation rose to 2.1 in September with Food and Drink and Energy driving the increase.
- The IMF forecast Euro Area GDP growth to slow to 2% in 2018 and again in 2019 to 1.9%.
OECD Composite Leading Indicators
Commodity Price Indices ($)
Headline Annual CPI Inflation
|GDP Growth (%)||Outturn||Projections||Revisions from April 2018|
|IMF WEO (Oct 2018)||2017||2018||2019||2018||2019|
|Emerging Markets and Developing Economies||4.7||4.7||4.7||-0.2||-0.4|