Standing Committee on Pandemic Preparedness: interim report

Introduction

The current pandemic has again illustrated the seriousness of biological threats. As of 7 June 2022, COVID-19 is reported to have killed over 6.2 million people globally^[4], with World Health Organization (WHO) excess-mortality estimates suggesting a true death toll associated with COVID-19 of 14.9 million between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021^[5].

In the UK and Scotland, the number of deaths with COVID-19 stated on the death certificate surpassed 195,000 and 14,600 respectively up to 20 May 2022^[6], with some recovered patients living with long-term physical and mental health effects^[7]. In addition, the indirect impact of the pandemic has severely affected the ability of the NHS and wider health and social care services to provide non-COVID services. Notably, the pandemic also magnified existing inequalities and “the societal impact has been borne disproportionately by front-line and higher-risk and disadvantaged populations”^[8].

At its meeting on 29 April 2022^[9], the Standing Committee committed to address the Scottish Government Commission in the context of global best practice. The members considered a range of domestic and international reports on future pandemic preparedness. The report of the Biden-Harris Administration, ‘American Pandemic Preparedness: Transforming our Capabilities’^[10] was endorsed as particularly apt in summarising the global context that faces Scotland.

In Scotland, expert groups such as the Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) and the Scottish Science Advisory Council (SSAC) have produced lessons learned reports reflecting on the experience of COVID-19 and making recommendations for future pandemics. The Committee considered these and engagement with stakeholders including our learned societies, third sector, and the wider public will take place in the next phase of the Committee’s work.

Lessons should be drawn from the experience of COVID-19 in order to shape future pandemic preparedness, whilst recognising the next pandemic may differ substantially from COVID-19, as illustrated by the large number of viral families known to be able to infect humans shown in figure 2. Preparedness should be considered for pandemics and high consequence biological threats, including for Disease X^[11].

Figure 2. 25 viral families known to infect people^[12]

Retroviridae

HIV-I

Herpesviridae

Varicella virus

Bornaviridae

Borna Disease virus

Astroviridae

Astrovirus

Bunyaviridae

Hantavirus;

Rift Valley virus

Arenaviridae

Lassa virus;

Machupo virus

Poxviridae

Variola virus

Caliciviridae

Norovirus

Parvoviridae

B19 virus;

Bocaviruss

Coronaviridae

SARS; MERS

Polyomaviridae

JC virus; BK virus

Reoviridae

Rotavirus

Filoviridae

Ebola virus;

Marburg virus

Picobirna

Human Picobirnavirus

Pneumoviridae

RSV;

metapneumovirus

Picornaviridae

Poliovirus 1, 2 & 3;

Hepatitis A virus

Hepadnaviridae

Hepatitis B virus

Flaviviridae

Yellow fever virus;

TBE; JE;

Dengue virus

Papillomaviridae

HPV 6, II, 16 & 18

Paramyxoviridae

Measles virus;

Mumps virus;

Nipah virus

Rhabdoviridae

Rabies virus

Adenoviridae

Adenovirus 4 & 7

Orthomyxoviridae

Influenza virus A & B

Hepeviridae

Hepatitis E virus

Togaviridae

Rubella virus

Adapted from CEPI diagram