Social Security Assistance in Scotland: up-rating for inflation in 2026 - 2027

3. Policy on up-rating of Social Security assistance

3.1 The Scottish Government’s current policy is to use the 12 months to September rate of CPI as the measure of inflation to up-rate devolved social security assistance. CPI is a National Statistic and is a headline measure of inflation in the UK. It is also used by the Bank of England for inflation targeting and official forecasts are available for CPI.

3.2 The 12 months to September rate of CPI is published in October allowing its use in the Scottish Government budget process that begins shortly afterwards, ensuring sufficient funds are allocated to fund up-rating of social security assistance, and also sufficient time to update the Social Security Scotland payment system in time to pay new rates in April.

3.3 In November 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility published its latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook^[10]. It forecasts that CPI inflation will have peaked at 3.9% in Q3 2025, falling gradually throughout 2026 to reach close to the Bank of England's 2% target by the end of the year. CPI inflation is then expected to remain close to the 2% target for the remainder of the forecast period through to 2031.

3.4 In summary, CPI remains the most appropriate inflation measure for up-rating of assistance and the 12 months to September is the most appropriate period. However, the Scottish Government is committed to keep its up-rating policy under review and will consider alternative approaches if there is a material change to inflation measures.