Scottish economic bulletin: October 2025

Footnotes

1 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) , GDP monthly estimate, UK Statistical bulletins - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

2 Based on 3-monthly data.

3 Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

4 Bank Rate maintained at 4% - September 2025 | Bank of England

5 Royal Bank of Scotland Regional Growth Tracker report for September 2025 | Royal Bank of Scotland

6 Scottish Business Monitor Q3 2025 | FAI

7 Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot

8 Royal Bank of Scotland Regional Growth Tracker report for September 2025 | Royal Bank of Scotland

9 Based on the Labour Force Survey: Labour market statistics - gov.scot

10 The ONS notes that the LFS estimates have been affected by increased volatility, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, meaning that estimates should be treated with caution, and are working towards an online-first Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), which is viewed as the long-term solution to the falling response rate.

11 Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics

12 Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics

13 In May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions increased the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change affected around 180,000 claimants in the UK, increasing the Claimant Count at the time of the change.

14 Textkernel new online job adverts - Office for National Statistics

15 Quarterly Economic Indicator - Scottish ChambersScottish Chambers

16 Earnings and employment from Pay as You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

17 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

18 UK Consumer confidence down two points in September to -19 - NIQ

19 Retail sales, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

20 Effective interest rates - A visual summary of our data | Bank of England

21 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2025 | Scottish Fiscal Commission

22 FAI Economic Commentary Q3 2025 | FAI

23 Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2025 - Office for Budget Responsibility

24 Monetary Policy Report - August 2025 | Bank of England

25 Forecasts for the UK economy - GOV.UK

26 World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim