Scottish economic bulletin: October 2025

Output

The Scottish economy grew 0.5% in the 3-months to July and 0.9% over the year.

• Scotland's economic output grew by 0.5% in the three months to July (UK: 0.2%), strengthening from growth of 0.2% in the three months to June and reflects a rebound in growth following a fall in recent months.^[1]
• The pattern of growth to date in 2025 means that in the three months to July, the level of economic output has grown 0.7% from the final quarter of 2024 and 0.9% over the past year.^[2]

• Growth in the three months to July was driven by the Services (1.0%) and Construction (0.8%) sectors, which was partially offset by a fall in Production output (-2.5%).
• In the Services sector, 3-monthly growth strengthened to its fastest rate since March 2024, supported by a pick-up in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (6.2%) and Financial and Insurance Activities (1.0%). As a whole, consumer facing services sectors output fell 0.8% with slower growth in Accommodation and Food Services (2.6%) and an accelerated fall in output in Wholesale, Retail and Motor Trades (-1.0%). On an annual basis, services grew 1.5%, in the 3-months to July.
• The pace of growth in the Construction sector eased slightly over the 3-month period, however remained robust overall and stronger than at the start of the year. On an annual basis, Construction output grew 2% in the 3-months to July.
• Output in the Production sector continued to fall in the 3-months to July, continuing a trend from the first quarter of the year. Most recently, this was driven by further output falls in Manufacturing (-2.9%), Electricity and Gas Supply (-3.5%) and Water Supply and Waste Management (-0.9%), which offset growth in Mining and Quarrying (3.5%).
• Within the Manufacturing sector, the latest data continues to partly reflect the cessation of oil refining activity at Grangemouth at the end of April, with the manufacture of chemicals and refined petroleum products falling 19.4%. On an annual basis, Production output fell 2.8%, its largest annual fall since March 2024.