Publication - Research and analysis
Scottish economic bulletin: October 2025
Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.
Data and Forecasts Summary
Outturn Data
| Indicator | Latest Data | Next Release | Timeseries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | |||
| GDP growth (3-month rolling %) | 0.5% (Jul) | 29 October | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | n/a | n/a |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 3.9% (Jun - Aug) | 11 November | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.9 | n/a |
| Real Earnings growth (YoY %) | 2.8% (Aug) | 11 November | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.8 | n/a |
| Inflation rate (CPI YoY %) | 3.8% (Aug) | 22 October | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | n/a |
| BoE Base Rate (%) | 4.00% (Sep) | 6 November | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Consumer Sentiment (Index) | -8.1 (Aug) | 29 October | -5.7 | -8.0 | -14.3 | -5.5 | -6.9 | -8.8 | -8.1 | n/a |
Forecasts
| Indicator | Organsiation | Date of Forecast | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (YoY %) | SFC | May 2025 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | SFC | May 2025 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Nominal Average Earnings growth (YoY %) | SFC | May 2025 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Inflation rate (4Q rate in Q4) | BoE | August 2025 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | n/a |
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot