Scottish Business Sentiment Index

Appendix A

A.1 Topic Modelling Results

Summary of Topic-Level Sentiment Index Calculation

1. Identify relevant topics from topic modelling (e.g., LDA).

2. Multiply each article's sentiment score by its relevance share for the topic.

3. Aggregate the weighted sentiments and topic shares monthly.

4. Normalize by dividing the total weighted sentiment by the total topic share to get the average sentiment index per month.

Model output (50 topics)

0 0.02033 island ferry highland service isle port vessel community inverness calmac shetland western ship route orkney ferguson transport marine yard hie

1 0.04959 director chief executive board chairman role year group appointed business appointment company member team senior head experience management time post

2 0.03372 police investigation claim case court complaint found crime officer allegation report company fraud month action firm claimed inquiry tribunal evidence

3 0.04336 city centre building site development project plan space office property street facility park million work area year construction council open

4 0.05198 government change issue industry policy uk rule report regulation system concern minister commission legislation scheme public proposal risk law review

5 0.02868 planning plan council development application site councillor local area proposal committee community land permission home trump highland decision scheme proposed

6 0.03003 award event business conference winner show year industry category exhibition annual prize international city entry competition held organiser place director

7 0.02033 energy wind power project offshore farm renewable turbine renewables uk electricity green sse government investment port development job nuclear grid

8 0.02366 school university student college education training teacher skill child young pupil apprenticeship apprentice parent career work learning programme graduate primary

9 0.02511 food restaurant pub product drink bar shop business customer local chef coffee brand chain open range produce cafe owner hospitality

10 0.01379 car vehicle engine model motor diesel electric wheel driver range litre mph road drive seat driving petrol bhp system speed

11 0.04661 uk month figure sector number market increase growth business rate level price report quarter survey demand average economy economic show

12 0.01699 whisky distillery brand drink scotch export market company beer spirit sale industry malt product diageo bottle world gin year alcohol

13 0.01716 bbc news medium advertising tv channel radio newspaper programme television stv itv press show broadcaster advert sky digital ad campaign

14 0.01654 cancer drug research treatment disease health patient trial people university study test cell vaccine dr life uk medical medicine product

15 0.05212 company business firm service group contract director million engineering market operation year deal growth industry construction uk management customer product

16 0.02044 investment fund asset trust life management standard investor financial company pension market manager insurance equity group income capital return year

17 0.03967 government snp minister labour party uk leader sturgeon vote independence tory election mp secretary salmond political conservative parliament westminster holyrood

18 0.03999 job company staff business loss closure firm worker cut redundancy plant close plan employee site factory administration future administrator union

19 0.01845 price energy cost customer bill fuel increase gas charge consumer company supplier gbp market pay average electricity cut power pound

20 0.02747 oil gas north sea production energy field offshore company bp industry shell uk drilling exploration barrel development million project asset

21 0.02256 home property house room housing garden bedroom area family price buyer kitchen sale estate offer building flat development market gbp

22 0.01451 share market stock ftse price index point group dollar bank investor rose fell biggest higher company page analyst lower trading

23 0.03358 government council public cost million contract service project funding minister budget money report authority local police year private cut snp

24 0.08475 time people dont make year back thing big long im problem world bit work point money life put find fact

25 0.03778 council local road community city town people area street councillor centre aberdeenshire service moray work northeast resident bridge park authority

26 0.01827 farmer farm kg farming beef cattle meat price dairy lamb milk agricultural sold food crop sheep production animal rural producer

27 0.02881 customer service company online technology mobile mail phone data system digital internet product royal user website information people software bt

28 0.02249 safety fire accident incident death police health worker road died injury work night family man risk investigation rescue people service

29 0.00922 fish fishing fishery fisherman salmon sea industry boat quota stock catch cod seafood marine vessel north european fleet eu mackerel

30 0.0214 union strike pay action worker member staff offer dispute industrial unite government deal council talk ballot service secretary trade increase

31 0.0161 airport flight passenger airline air service route travel aircraft baa aviation ba heathrow number airway ryanair million british plane uk

32 0.05312 company share deal group shareholder business bid million stake takeover offer gbp sale market firm investor price executive sell interest

33 0.05463 profit group company million sale gbp market revenue business growth share gbpm result month pretax cost trading strong loss chief

34 0.02576 club game ranger football player manager team season league celtic sport cup fan time rugby match back side win supporter

35 0.01937 rail train service bus transport passenger scotrail fare network railway line operator driver travel station route ticket journey franchise stagecoach

36 0.02347 pay gbp bonus woman pension salary staff worker paid employee wage scheme executive employer company annual payment work report benefit

37 0.00963 golf beat class championship woman open cup league men division st final world round tour bt england smith gb senior

38 0.03869 industry sector technology business economy world innovation support opportunity scotland future development uk investment economic project data global government change

39 0.03254 store sale retailer retail shop supermarket tesco street chain christmas customer high shopping brand shopper online centre food asda sainsburys

40 0.02251 court legal law case claim firm lawyer lord action appeal solicitor judge company decision ruling society justice session hearing tribunal

41 0.01555 service london community england ireland lab british royal john south west wale northern chief director mar executive central north east

42 0.04441 business people work support working charity community organisation staff team company opportunity make social time job employee service experience family

43 0.02659 bank banking rb lloyd financial customer royal branch loan business hbos credit group mortgage barclays lending money lender account gbp

44 0.03098 business tax government small rate scheme cost uk firm pay budget income support money cut increase economy million debt finance

45 0.04034 year art festival family music show world work life theatre time film book museum artist child royal home history event

46 0.02225 hotel offer holiday visitor travel park room night tourism visit loch castle including highland tour trip guest tourist booking resort

47 0.01942 water gas energy plant climate waste carbon emission fuel fracking green environmental government grangemouth ineos uk supply oil site coal

48 0.03707 firm business company investment partner client growth team market service office uk funding deal technology sector investor financial capital startup

49 0.01892 health nh care service hospital patient staff people nurse board doctor home medical social covid time work dr healthcare nursing

A.2 Manual aggregation of 50-topic model to 20 broad topics

1. Business

1.1. Topic 1: Corporate Leadership

Words: director, chief, executive, board, chairman, role, year, group, appointed, business, appointment, company, member, team, senior, head, experience, management, time, post

1.2. Topic 6: Business Awards and Events

Words: award, event, business, conference, winner, show, year, industry, category, exhibition, annual, prize, international, city, entry, competition, held, organiser, place, director

1.3. Topic 15: Engineering Services and Business Operations

Words: company, business, firm, service, group, contract, director, million, engineering, market, operation, year, deal, growth, industry, construction, uk, management, customer, product

1.4. Topic 44: Business Taxes and Government Schemes

Words: business, tax, government, small, rate, scheme, cost, uk, firm, pay, budget, income, support, money, cut, increase, economy, million, debt, finance

1.5. Topic 48: Business Investments and Startups

Words: firm, business, company, investment, partner, client, growth, team, market, service, office, uk, funding, deal, technology, sector, investor, financial, capital, startup

2. Finance

2.1. Topic 11: Economic Indicators and Market Trends

Words: uk, month, figure, sector, number, market, increase, growth, business, rate, level, price, report, quarter, survey, demand, average, economy, economic, show

2.2. Topic 16: Investment Funds and Asset Management

Words: investment, fund, asset, trust, life, management, standard, investor, financial, company, pension, market, manager, insurance, equity, group, income, capital, return, year

2.3. Topic 22: Stock Market and Investment Trends

Words: share, market, stock, ftse, price, index, point, group, dollar, bank, investor, rose, fell, biggest, higher, company, page, analyst, lower, trading

2.4. Topic 32: Company Shares and Business Deals

Words: company, share, deal, group, shareholder, business, bid, million, stake, takeover, offer, gbp, sale, market, firm, investor, price, executive, sell, interest

2.5. Topic 33: Company Profits and Financial Results

Words: profit, group, company, million, sale, gbp, market, revenue, business, growth, share, gbpm, result, month, pretax, cost, trading, strong, loss, chief

2.6. Topic 38: Industry Innovation and Economic Development

Words: industry, sector, technology, business, economy, world, innovation, support, opportunity, scotland, future, development, uk, investment, economic, project, data, global, government, change

2.7. Topic 43: Banking and Financial Services

Words: bank, banking, rb, lloyd, financial, customer, royal, branch, loan, business, hbos, credit, group, mortgage, barclays, lending, money, lender, account, gbp

3. Government and Politics

3.1. Topic 4: Government Policies and Regulations

Words: government, change, issue, industry, policy, uk, rule, report, regulation, system, concern, minister, commission, legislation, scheme, public, proposal, risk, law, review

3.2. Topic 17: Scottish Politics and Independence

Words: government, snp, minister, labour, party, uk, leader, sturgeon, vote, independence, tory, election, mp, secretary, salmond, political, conservative, parliament, westminster, holyrood

3.3. Topic 23: Government Spending and Public Services

Words: government, council, public, cost, million, contract, service, project, funding, minister, budget, money, report, authority, local, police, year, private, cut, snp

4. Transportation

4.1. Topic 0: Maritime Services

Words: island, ferry, highland, service, isle, port, vessel, community, inverness, calmac, shetland, western, ship, route, orkney, ferguson, transport, marine, yard, hie

4.2. Topic 31: Air Travel

Words: airport, flight, passenger, airline, air, service, route, travel, aircraft, baa, aviation, ba, heathrow, number, airway, ryanair, million, british, plane, uk

4.3. Topic 35: Public Transport

Words: rail, train, service, bus, transport, passenger, scotrail, fare, network, railway, line, operator, driver, travel, station, route, ticket, journey, franchise, stagecoach

5. Energy and Environment

5.1. Topic 7:Renewable Energy

Words: energy, wind, power, project, offshore, farm, renewable, turbine, renewables, uk, electricity, green, sse, government, investment, port, development, job, nuclear, grid

5.2. Topic 19: Energy Prices

Words: price, energy, cost, customer, bill, fuel, increase, gas, charge, consumer, company, supplier, gbp, market, pay, average, electricity, cut, power, pound

5.3. Topic 20: Oil and Gas Industry

Words: oil, gas, north, sea, production, energy, field, offshore, company, bp, industry, shell, uk, drilling, exploration, barrel, development, million, project, asset

5.4. Topic 47 Climate Change

Words: water, gas, energy, plant, climate, waste, carbon, emission, fuel, fracking, green, environmental, government, grangemouth, ineos, uk, supply, oil, site, coal

6. Healthcare and Public Services

6.1. Topic 14: Medical Research and Healthcare

Words: cancer, drug, research, treatment, disease, health, patient, trial, people, university, study, test, cell, vaccine, dr, life, uk, medical, medicine, product

6.2. Topic 49: Healthcare Services and NHS

Words: health, nh, care, service, hospital, patient, staff, nurse, board, doctor, home, medical, social, covid, time, work, dr, healthcare, nursing

7. Hospitality and Tourism

7.1. Topic 9: Food and Beverage Industry

Words: food, restaurant, pub, product, drink, bar, shop, business, customer, local, chef, coffee, brand, chain, open, range, produce, cafe, owner, hospitality

7.2. Topic 46: Tourism and Travel

Words: hotel, offer, holiday, visitor, travel, park, room, night, tourism, visit, loch, castle, including, highland, tour, trip, guest, tourist, booking, resort

8. Legal and Judicial Services

8.1. Topic 2: Legal Investigations and Fraud Cases

Words: police, investigation, claim, case, court, complaint, found, crime, officer, allegation, report, company, fraud, month, action, firm, claimed, inquiry, tribunal, evidence

8.2. Topic 40: Legal Cases and Law Firms

Words: court, legal, law, case, claim, firm, lawyer, lord, action, appeal, solicitor, judge, company, decision, ruling, society, justice, session, hearing, tribunal

9. Real Estate and Property

9.1. Topic 3: Urban Development and Construction Projects

Words: city, centre, building, site, development, project, plan, space, office, property, street, facility, park, million, work, area, year, construction, council, open

9.2. Topic 5: Local Planning and Development Applications

Words: planning, plan, council, development, application, site, councillor, local, area, proposal, committee, community, land, permission, home, trump, highland, decision, scheme, proposed

9.3. Topic 21: Residential Property and Housing Market

Words: home, property, house, room, housing, garden, bedroom, area, family, price, buyer, kitchen, sale, estate, offer, building, flat, development, market, gbp

10. Sports

10.1. Topic 34: Football Clubs and Sports Matches

Words: club, game, ranger, football, player, manager, team, season, league, celtic, sport, cup, fan, time, rugby, match, back, side, win, supporter

10.2. Topic 37: Sports Championships and Competitions

Words: golf, beat, class, championship, woman, open, cup, league, men, division, st, final, world, round, tour, bt, england, smith, gb, senior

11. Technology and Media

11.1. Topic 13: Media and Broadcasting

Words: bbc, news, medium, advertising, tv, channel, radio, newspaper, programme, television, stv, itv, press, show, broadcaster, advert, sky, digital, ad, campaign

11.2. Topic 27: Technology Services and Digital Communications

Words: customer, service, company, online, technology, mobile, mail, phone, data, system, digital, internet, product, royal, user, website, information, people, software, bt

12. Retail and Consumer Goods

12.1. Topic 12: Whisky and Alcohol Industry

Words: whisky, distillery, brand, drink, scotch, export, market, company, beer, spirit, sale, industry, malt, product, diageo, bottle, world, gin, year, alcohol

12.2. Topic 39: Retail Industry and Shopping

Words: store, sale, retailer, retail, shop, supermarket, tesco, street, chain, christmas, customer, high, shopping, brand, shopper, online, centre, food, asda, sainsburys

13. Education and Training

13.1. Topic 8: Education and Training

Words: school, university, student, college, education, training, teacher, skill, child, young, pupil, apprenticeship, apprentice, parent, career, work, learning, programme, graduate, primary

14. Agriculture and Fishing Industry

14.1. Topic 26: Agriculture and Farming

Words: farmer, farm, kg, farming, beef, cattle, meat, price, dairy, lamb, milk, agricultural, sold, food, crop, sheep, production, animal, rural, producer

14.2. Topic 29: Fishing Industry and Fisheries

Words: fish, fishing, fishery, fisherman, salmon, sea, industry, boat, quota, stock, catch, cod, seafood, marine, vessel, north, european, fleet, eu, mackerel

15. Labor and Employment

15.1. Topic 18: Job Losses and Company Closures

Words: job, company, staff, business, loss, closure, firm, worker, cut, redundancy, plant, close, plan, employee, site, factory, administration, future, administrator, union

15.2. Topic 30: Labor Unions and Industrial Actions

Words: union, strike, pay, action, worker, member, staff, offer, dispute, industrial, unite, government, deal, council, talk, ballot, service, secretary, trade, increase

15.3. Topic 36: Salaries, Bonuses, and Pay Equality

Words: pay, gbp, bonus, woman, pension, salary, staff, worker, paid, employee, wage, scheme, executive, employer, company, annual, payment, work, report, benefit

16. Safety and Public Incidents

16.1. Topic 28: Safety Incidents and Accidents

Words: safety, fire, accident, incident, death, police, health, worker, road, died, injury, work, night, family, man, risk, investigation, rescue, people, service

17. Community and Local Projects

17.1. Topic 25: Local Communities and Infrastructure

Words: council, local, road, community, city, town, people, area, street, councillor, centre, aberdeenshire, service, moray, work, northeast, resident, bridge, park, authority

17.2. Topic 41: Community Services and National Organizations

Words: service, london, community, england, ireland, lab, british, royal, john, south, west, wale, northern, chief, director, mar, executive, central, north, east

17.3. Topic 42: Community Support and Charities

Words: business, people, work, support, working, charity, community, organisation, staff, team, company, opportunity, make, social, time, job, employee, service, experience, family

18. Automobiles and Vehicles

18.1. Topic 10: Automotive Industry and Vehicles

Words: car, vehicle, engine, model, motor, diesel, electric, wheel, driver, range, litre, mph, road, drive, seat, driving, petrol, bhp, system, speed

19. Arts and Culture

19.1. Topic 45: Arts, Culture, and Festivals

Words: year, art, festival, family, music, show, world, work, life, theatre, time, film, book, museum, artist, child, royal, home, history, event

20. Other

20.1. Topic 24: Other

Words: time, people, dont, make, year, back, thing, big, long, im, problem, world, bit, work, point, money, life, put, find, fac

A.3 Additional Figures

Notes: The figure plots the % share of topic coverage, yearly average, for each of the 50 topics produced by the LDA topic modelling using Factiva data. Note, that the topic “Other” refers to topic 24 in the 50-topic model, which is meaningless and uninformative in the context of Scottish business news, and thus not relevant to use for topic-specific sentiment analysis.

Notes: The figure plots the % share of topic coverage, yearly average, for each of the 20 aggregated topics produced by the LDA topic modelling using Factiva data. Note that the aggregation to 20 broad topics is done manually and a detailed list of the exact topics used from the 50-topic model is provided in the Appendix. Note, that the topic “Other” refers to topic 24 in the 50-topic model, which is meaningless and uninformative in the context of Scottish business news, and thus not relevant to use for topic-specific sentiment analysis.

Notes: The figure plots the quarterly (average of monthly) frequency of the percentage point changes from the previous quarter in the Scottish Business Sentiment Index (BSI - left axis) constructed by the authors using Factiva data and the quarterly series for the Scottish Nominal GDP (£ billion, current prices, seasonally adjusted) which can be found at the Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (Scottish Fiscal Commission).

Notes: The figure plots the quarterly (average of monthly) frequency of the Scottish Business Sentiment Index (BSI - left axis) constructed by the authors using Factiva data and the quarterly series for the Scottish GDP (£ billion 2019, constant prices, seasonally adjusted) which can be found at the Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (Scottish Fiscal Commission).