Scotland's draft Climate Change Plan: 2026-2040: strategic environmental assessment - environmental report

3. Environmental baseline

3.1. Introduction

3.1.1 This section presents the environmental baseline to meet the requirements of Schedule 3 of the 2005 Act, which requires the Environmental Report to identify:

• Relevant aspects of the current state of the environment and its likely evolution without the implementation of the plan or programme.
• Environmental characteristics of areas likely to be significantly affected.
• Relevant existing environmental problems.
• Relevant environmental protection objectives established at the international or national level which are relevant to the plan or programme.

3.1.2 The following information is provided for each of the environmental topics:

• A summary of relevant environmental protection objectives established at an international or national level.
• Environmental baseline.
• Key pressures and trends.
• Relevant SEA objectives.

3.2. Air

Existing environmental protection objectives

3.2.1 Cleaner Air for Scotland 2^[20], sets out the Scottish Government's air quality policy framework and actions to deliver continued air quality improvement and secure compliance with international commitments. The strategy notes that policies that improve air quality can potentially have multiple co-benefits including for biodiversity, population health, and for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Air quality is explicitly addressed in Policy 23 of National Planning Framework 4^[21], which seeks to protect health and wellbeing by ensuring that air quality concerns are taken into account in planning decisions.

3.2.2 The National Emission Ceilings Directive (NECD) (2016/2284/EU)^[22] sets national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants in keeping with the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution of 1979 (CLRTAP)^[23] and, in particular, its Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone^[24] of 1999, which was revised in 2012 (the revised Gothenburg Protocol). The NECD transposes 2020 targets agreed under the revised Gothenburg Protocol, along with more ambitious targets for 2030. The NECD is part of retained EU law and has been transposed into domestic law through the National Emission Ceilings Regulations (NECR) 2018^[25]. The policies intended to secure compliance with the NECD requirements at UK level were previously set out in a National Air Pollution Control Programme^[26] (NAPCP). The requirement to produce an NAPCP was revoked by the UK Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Act 2023, with a non-legislative replacement approach currently being developed by Defra and the devolved governments. Objectives relevant to local air quality management (LAQM) are set out in the Air Quality (Scotland) Regulations 2000^[27], as amended.

Baseline conditions, pressures and trends

3.2.3 Air quality in Scotland has improved significantly over recent decades, largely due to tighter emissions controls, cleaner technologies, and coordinated policy action^[28]. However, air pollution remains a key environmental and public health issue, particularly in urban areas and along busy transport corridors. The main pollutants of concern include nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), particulate matter (PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅), and ammonia. These pollutants are primarily associated with road traffic, domestic heating, agriculture, and industrial activity.

3.2.4 Air pollution is closely linked to land use and transport planning. The expansion of built-up areas, increased vehicle use, and energy demand from new development can all contribute to localised air quality pressures. In response, national planning policy emphasises the need to design places that support low-emission lifestyles^[29]. Low Emission Zones (LEZs) have been introduced in major cities to tackle urban air pollution.

3.2.5 Air quality is a cross-cutting issue across climate, health, and the natural environment. Poor air quality disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, including children, older people, and those living in deprived areas^[30]. Air pollution and its deposition onto vegetation, soil and water can damage vegetation directly or indirectly through the addition of nutrients or changes in acidity levels within a habitat. These can lead to a shift in the competitive balance between species, changes in plant species composition, or subtle changes in vegetation structure which can affect the use of a habitat by an animal species^[31].

3.2.6 Key pressures and trends include:

• As of 2025, there are 26 active Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) in Scotland^[32]. Of the current AQMAs, most are transport-related, with a small number declared for industrial emissions^[33].
• Emissions of the seven main air pollutants have continued to decline since 2005, with the most recent data from 2023 showing sustained reductions across most pollutants^[34].
• The main sources of emissions in 2023 were Domestic transport, Buildings and product use and Agriculture. In 2023, cars accounted for 38.9% of total transport (including international aviation and shipping) emissions^[35].
• Policies that improve air quality can potentially have multiple co-benefits for biodiversity, as well as population health, and for mitigating and adapting to climate change.

3.3. Biodiversity, flora and fauna

Existing environmental protection objectives

3.3.1 The importance of halting and reversing biodiversity loss is recognised at international and national level, including through the international Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)^[36] and the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045 (SBS)^[37], which sets out a long-term vision for restoring and regenerating biodiversity across Scotland, with the goal of achieving full restoration by 2045.

3.3.2 The SBS sets out 31 of the most urgent priority actions which aim to put Scotland on track in halting the loss of biodiversity and being nature positive by 2030. These actions are refined in the first delivery plan from 2024 to 2030, which outlines key Objectives for accelerating restoration, protecting nature, embedding nature in rural land use, protecting rare and vulnerable habitats and species, investing in nature and dealing with indirect drivers of biodiversity loss. Habitats and species identified as of particular value are also considered in legislation and policies relating to the protection of biodiversity, flora and fauna. NPF4 policy 3^[38] (Biodiversity) aims to protect biodiversity, reverse biodiversity loss, deliver positive effects from development and strengthen nature networks.

Baseline conditions, pressures and trends

3.3.3 Biodiversity is crucial for the functioning of healthy ecosystems and supports life by providing resources such as clean air, water and food. Biodiversity is also closely linked with the other environmental topics; studies illustrate the reciprocal relationship that climate regulates nature and nature regulates climate, especially through the carbon cycle and healthy soils and water^[39].

3.3.4 Scotland’s biodiversity has been depleted due to human activity over centuries, with pockets of rich biodiversity struggling to sustain themselves in the face of habitat loss and fragmentation, over-exploitation, climate change, pollution, and invasive non-native species.

3.3.5 Scotland’s biodiversity is complex and includes varied habitats that make up the diverse landscapes. Approximately 90,000 animal, plant and microbe species are found in Scotland along with habitats ranging from raised bog to native and ancient woodland^[40]. Scotland is home to a wide range of species and internationally important habitats. For example:

• Wetlands, including peatlands, can be found across Scotland and are a key provider of ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and water purification.
• Agriculture is Scotland’s dominant use of land, covering 66% of the country^[41], with woodlands and forests covering 19%^[42]. These support a wide range of important flora and fauna diversity, including rare and threatened species.
• Scotland’s seas, which make up around 61% of the UK’s total marine area, are highly dynamic, supporting a diverse range of habitats and species and an increasingly varied array of marine industries^[43].

3.3.6 Scotland’s protected areas include 253 Special Areas of Conservation, 164 Special Protection Areas, 51 Ramsar sites and 2 Biosphere Reserves, 1,423 Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), 48 National Nature Reserves and 2 National Parks, among other designations^[44]. 37% of Scotland’s seas form part of the Scottish marine protected area (MPA) network^[45]. Greenspaces such as public and private gardens, parks, woodlands, recreational grounds, green corridors, allotments and community growing spaces can also provide habitats and ecosystems which are not only important to wildlife, but for human health and wellbeing.

3.3.7 Global declines in biodiversity are mirrored in Scotland and the abundance and distribution of Scotland’s species has declined over recent decades, with an average 15% decline in the abundance of 407 terrestrial and freshwater species since 1994^[46], a 47% decrease in flowering plant distribution since 1970, a 49% decline in Scotland’s seabirds between 1986-2019, and 11% of species currently threatened with extinction^[47].

3.3.8 Key pressures and trends the assessment considers include:

• The abundance and distribution of Scotland’s species has on average declined over recent decades.
• 75% of protected sites are in favourable or recovering condition while 25% of sites are in unfavourable condition^[48].
• 11% of species in Scotland have been classified as threatened with extinction^[49].
• The greatest drivers of change in biodiversity in Scotland are: climate change, urbanisation, pollution, woodland management, fisheries, invasive non-native species, deer and other herbivore impacts, freshwater management and agricultural management.
• Currently, 22% of Scotland’s terrestrial environment receives protection. The Scottish Government has committed to protecting 30% of both land and sea by 2030, in line with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework^[50].

3.4. Climatic factors

Existing environmental protection objectives

3.4.1 The 2009 Act, as amended^[51], created a statutory framework for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction in Scotland and set targets for reduction in emissions of the Kyoto Protocol GHGs. In direct response to the Paris Agreement^[52], a legally binding international treaty on climate change to which the UK is a signatory, the 2009 Act was amended by the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019^[53]. This set new targets to reduce emissions of all GHGs to net-zero by 2045 at the latest, with an update to the Climate Change Plan (CCPu)^[54] published to set a pathway to achieve the new targets. In November 2024, the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2024^[55] (‘the 2024 Act’) came into force which introduced the framework for a new, carbon budget-based approach for setting emissions reduction targets up to 2045. The 2024 Act also amended the timescales for the next Climate Change Plan to reflect the process for development of the new carbon budget framework. The target of net zero emissions by 2045 remains, as does the legal commitment to have regard to the just transition principles.

3.4.2 The 2009 Act also requires a programme for climate change adaptation to be set out every 5 years. This must address risks identified in statutory UK Climate Change Risk Assessments^[56] (UKCCRA), which are also updated every five years, based on independent expert advice. The 2009 Act further established the Scottish Nitrogen Balance Sheet, which tracks and manages progress on improving the use of nitrogen^[57]. The third Scottish National Adaptation Plan^[58] (SNAP3), published in 2024, sets out how Scotland will respond to the impacts of climate change between 2024 and 2029. It focuses on five key outcomes: nature connects, communities, public services and infrastructure, economy and international action.

Baseline conditions, pressures and trends

3.4.3 There is a global climate emergency. Due to human activities including industrialisation, deforestation, and large scale agriculture, the quantity of greenhouse gases (GHG) within the atmosphere has risen to record levels not seen in three million years^[59]. The concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere is directly linked to the average global temperature, and there is unequivocal evidence that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land^[60]. Scotland’s climate has already changed and is both warmer and wetter on average^[61]. Drier summers and instances of prolonged dry weather are increasing the risk of water scarcity, which poses notable environmental challenges for biodiversity, plant and animal ecosystems as well as for agriculture, industry, and human health^[62]. In Scotland an estimated 284,000 homes and premises are at risk of flooding because of rising sea levels and extreme weather events, with an additional 110,000 properties predicted to be at risk by the 2080s^[63]. Scotland’s waters are warming by an average of 0.2 degrees per decade, negatively impacting biodiversity and aquaculture. A predicted rise in sea levels, as well as coastal erosion, is expected to adversely impact island communities and mainland coastal infrastructure^[64]. As such, Climate adaptation will be crucial to ensure that Scotland’s society and economy will be resilient to future climate impacts.

3.4.4 Historically, policies and practices for land use have been designed to maximise productivity and yield on the expectation of a largely stable and predictable climate. More recently, policies and practices have aimed to deliver multiple benefits from land including food production, climate mitigation and adaptation and nature restoration. As climate warms and weather patterns become progressively more unpredictable and extreme, it will be increasingly difficult to use the past to project the future. Dealing with uncertainty and the uneven distribution of costs, benefits and risk, especially those associated with current land use policies and practices, will be increasingly important.

3.4.5 Some of the key pressures and trends the assessment has considered include:

• Between 1990 and 2023, there was a 51.3% reduction in estimated net emissions in Scotland, a 41.6 MtCO2e decrease, with all sectors except international aviation and shipping, falling over the period^[65].
• The most significant contributors to this decrease were energy supply, industrial emissions, waste management, buildings and product use, and land use change and forestry (LULUCF)^[66]. Emissions from both agriculture and LULUCF have, however, remained relatively stable over recent years^[67]. This is in stark contrast to the decline in net emissions across other sectors.
• The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in Scotland’s Carbon Budgets (2025) have suggested that by 2040, the agriculture and land use sectors will have to make the biggest contribution to emission reductions^[68].
• In 2023, domestic transport was the largest source of net emissions^[69].
• Scotland’s homes are a major source of emissions with buildings (dominated by direct fuel combustion for home heating) accounting for 19% of total emissions in 2023^[70].

3.5. Cultural heritage

Existing environmental protection objectives

3.5.1 Existing cultural heritage objectives are set out in legislation including the Planning (Listed Buildings and Conservation Areas) (Scotland) Act 1997^[71], the Ancient Monuments and Archaeological Areas Act 1979^[72], the Historic Environment Scotland Act 2014^[73], the Historic Environment (Amendment) (Scotland) Act 2011^[74], and the Town and Country Planning (Scotland) Act 1997^[75]. These objectives are focused primarily on the protection of valued sites and features, including townscapes (i.e. places, buildings and open spaces), buildings, archaeological sites, battlefields, wrecks and landscapes that have been recognised at the international, national and local levels through a hierarchy of designations.

3.5.2 NPF4 policy 7 aims to protect and enhance historic environment assets and places, and to enable positive change as a catalyst for the regeneration of places. It sets out that development proposals should protect and enhance both designated and non-designated heritage assets and their settings^[76]. This is complemented by the Historic Environment Policy for Scotland^[77] (HEPS), which defines how the historic environment in Scotland should be managed. Together, they emphasise the importance of preserving recognised sites, avoiding negative impacts on them and their wider setting, and contributing to their enhancement where possible. In addition, the national strategy ‘Our Past, Our Future’, launched in 2023, sets out a five-year vision for the historic environment sector^[78]. It highlights the role of heritage in supporting climate action, community resilience, and a wellbeing economy. The strategy promotes the adaptive reuse of traditional buildings, the development of heritage skills, and greater community involvement in decision-making.

Baseline conditions, pressures and trends

3.5.3 Scotland’s many and varied historical sites are unique and irreplaceable. These sites and features are regarded as making a valuable contribution to quality of life, cultural identity, education and economy. While these assets are distributed widely throughout Scotland, there are clusters of sites in and around Scotland’s settlements and coastlines.

3.5.4 The majority of Scotland’s historic environment is undesignated, with estimates that the scale of the undesignated resource is around 90-95% of the total resource^[79]. There are more than 55,000 designated/protected historic assets across Scotland^[80]. These are protected through the process of designation, which aims to identify the most important parts of the historic environment, to recognise their significance and enhance protection. Designations include World Heritage Sites, listed buildings, scheduled monuments, gardens and designed landscapes, battlefields, historic marine protected areas and conservation areas.

3.5.5 Key pressures and trends include:

• Historic assets face challenges related to ongoing maintenance, repair, and the availability of traditional skills, which can affect their condition and use.
• 18% of Scotland's dwellings are of pre-1919 construction^[81].
• There is an increasing need to retrofit historic buildings for energy efficiency and climate resilience, which presents both opportunities and risks to fabric integrity and heritage value.
• Development pressure, including from housing, which may affect the setting of historic landscapes and assets especially in coastal and upland areas. These pressures may also vary regionally or between urban and rural areas.

3.6. Landscape and geodiversity

Existing environmental protection objectives

3.6.1 Landscape objectives, including those from the European Landscape Convention^[82], recognise and protect special landscapes but also aim to improve degraded landscapes and highlight the importance of all landscapes. Areas identified as having outstanding scenic value in a national context are designated as National Scenic Areas (NSAs), which protects the special qualities of nationally important landscapes and seascapes^[83]. Policies in NPF4 help protect the special qualities of nationally important landscapes, such as NSAs and also National Parks, through Policy 4 (Natural Places)^[84]. Planning policy also supports the recognition and protection of regionally and locally valued landscapes through Policy 14 (Design, Quality and Place) and Policy 16 (Quality Homes)^[85].

3.6.2 The environmental protection objectives set out in legislation and policy for geodiversity are broadly aimed at protecting geological and geomorphological features from damage and disturbance. Sites are mainly protected at a national level through designation of SSSI but also through other designations such as National Parks^[86]. Some sites also have international recognition as UNESCO Global Geoparks^[87]. Local geodiversity action plans (LGAPs) can also help to guide the conservation and enhancement of geodiversity at the local level^[88].

Baseline conditions, pressures and trends

3.6.3 Scotland’s diverse and distinctive landscapes are a significant part of the country’s natural and cultural heritage contributing to the economy and the population’s wellbeing and providing a range of benefits^[89]. Scotland is internationally renowned for its varied and dramatic landscapes including mountain ranges, broad plateaus, expansive lowlands, and coastal features^[90]. Many of these landscapes are the result of ancient glacial and periglacial activity as well as changes in sea level^[91]. Scotland’s landscapes are shaped by the interplay of natural features, cultural heritage and settlement patterns that help contribute to their distinctive character and value. Many of these landscapes are designated as NSAs or as Local Landscape Areas (LLAs) which help to encourage positive landscape management^[92].

3.6.4 Geodiversity underpins landscape and is integral to our natural and cultural heritage. Protecting our rocks, landforms and soils is also an important part of landscape planning and management^[93]. Many places in Scotland are of great importance to geoscience for their rocks, fossils and landforms, demonstrating important geological processes or events that have significant value for education and research and as part of Scotland’s geo-heritage^[94].

3.6.5 Geodiversity is also the physical basis for Scotland’s varied landscapes (both rural and urban) and scenery. It influences terrestrial and marine habitats, wildlife and use of land and water^[95]. Geodiversity assets of regional or local importance may be protected as Local Geodiversity Sites. Around 9.5% of the total area covered by Scotland’s National Parks and 37% of National Nature Reserve areas have Geological Conservation Review site status^[96]. Some of these are also protected at the national level by SSSI legislation.

3.6.6 Key pressures and trends include:

• Regional and local landscapes are becoming less distinct due to more similarities in building form, settlement patterns, and agricultural practices^[97].
• A move towards a monoculture has created a less diverse landscape of field types and hedgerows.
• Climate change is expected to lead to extensive landscape change across Scotland, with the greatest changes likely to occur in lowland and coastal areas where human population is highest. Geodiversity assets are also expected to be affected by climate change^[98].
• Increasing demand for housing and infrastructure, as well as the rapid growth of the renewable energy sector, is likely to place pressure on our valued landscapes.

3.7. Material assets

Existing environmental protection objectives

3.7.1 Objectives and policies related to material assets and waste management are wide-ranging, taking into account the broad nature of the topic. The programme set out in the Infrastructure Investment Plan^[99], and practices and commitments for action against climate change such as the CCPu^[100] are also relevant. Forestry is a key material and natural asset. Scotland’s Forestry Strategy 2019–2029 sets a long-term vision for expanding and sustainably managing forests and woodlands

3.7.2 Scotland’s ambitions for a circular economy are set out through the Circular Economy (Scotland) Act 2024^[101], which establishes a legislative framework to support the transition to a circular economy, including powers to set statutory targets for reducing carbon emissions associated with the consumption of materials, increasing recycling and re-use, and reducing waste.

Baseline conditions, pressures and trends

3.7.3 The 2005 Act requires material assets as a topic to be addressed in SEA but does not set out a specific definition of the factors it should encompass. SEPA guidance^[102] notes that consideration of material assets in SEA is usually taken to cover a wide variety of both natural and built assets.

3.7.4 Scotland’s land use is dominated by agriculture and forestry, which together account for around 80% of total land cover^[103]. Access to natural assets remains high, with forests and woodlands receiving millions of visits annually. In 2019/20, there were an estimated 123 million visits to Scottish woodlands^[104], reflecting their importance for recreation, health, and wellbeing.

3.7.5 Built assets are varied and include infrastructure which delivers energy, heat, flood protection, water supply, and waste and water management services. Extreme weather events which occur due to climate change risk damaging these assets and disrupting the services they provide.

3.7.6 The planning system highlights the need to enable the development of high-quality, sustainable buildings. Efficient design contributes to waste reduction and overall climate change mitigation targets, as do reductions in transport emissions. Redevelopment of urban and rural brownfield sites is encouraged to help reduce the need for development on greenfield land, supporting compact growth and land reuse^[105].

3.7.7 Scotland has an active cement and aggregates industry which is facing pressure to become more environmentally sustainable. Globally, cement manufacturing is responsible for 8% of CO2 emissions^[106].

3.7.8 There has been a progressive reduction in landfilled waste volumes since 2005 (74% reduction between 2005-2024^[107]), driven by measures such as the Scottish Landfill Tax and legislating for a ban on sending biodegradable municipal waste to landfill. There has been a steady increase in Scotland’s overall recycling rate since 2011 (from 52.5% in 2011 to 62.2% in 2023^[108]).

3.7.9 New tree planting and restocking is regarded as a key tool to capture or offset carbon, but in practice this is often undertaken on carbon-rich soils, planting such as this plus initiatives that promote self establishing trees in carbon rich soils may therefore lead to temporary increases in emissions, creating a tension in these sectors^[109]. Tree growth that captures carbon is dependent on good tree health, and this is increasingly compromised by climate change, extreme weather and novel pests and pathogens. It is important to have a diverse range of tree species to avoid vulnerability to disease of just a few species^[110].

3.7.10 Key pressures and trends include:

• Material assets is considered to comprise of all natural and built assets in Scotland.
• Scotland’s land use is dominated by agriculture and forestry, which together account for around 80% of total land cover.
• Agricultural intensification has contributed to habitat simplification and soil degradation in some areas, although reductions in fertiliser and pesticide use have improved the condition of some cultivated habitats in recent years^[111].
• There is a recognised need for the development industry to move towards sustainable materials and a circular economy model.
• New tree planting and restocking is regarded as a key tool to capture or offset carbon.

3.8. Population and human health

Existing environmental protection objectives

3.8.1 A wide range of environmental protection objectives are relevant to population and human health. Protection against environmental effects such as impacts to air, water, land and disturbance, particularly from noise and vibration are established in legislation at International, UK and national levels. The provision of access to the outdoors for recreational and educational purposes, sustainable transport and housing, green infrastructure and the role of the environment and place in mental and physical health and wellbeing are also well established. Scotland’s draft Environment Strategy^[112] provides an overarching framework for these protections and provisions, linking environmental quality with wellbeing and economic resilience.

Baseline conditions, pressures and trends

3.8.2 The population of Scotland was estimated at 5,490,100 in 2023^[113]. Projections forecast that in the ten years from mid-2022 to mid-2032, the population will increase by 4.4% to 5.7 million. In the 25 years from mid-2022 to mid-2047, it is projected to increase by 6.2% to 5.8 million^[114]. Whilst life expectancy is projected to increase by 2047, the expected rate of increase will be slower than previous projections. The projected population growth for Scotland is lower than that of the UK as a whole.

3.8.3 Scotland has the lowest life expectancy in western Europe^[115]. There is a strong relationship between deprivation and life expectancy, with people living in more deprived areas projected to live shorter lives. In the most deprived 10% of areas in Scotland in 2021-2023, life expectancy at birth was on average 10.5 years lower for females, and 13.2 years lower for males than in the least deprived areas^[116].

3.8.4 Like other advanced economies, Scotland has an ageing population. By mid-2043, it is projected that 22.9% of the population will be of pensionable age, compared to 19.0% in 2018. This has implications for all areas of society including infrastructure, health care and public finance. An older population is potentially more vulnerable to the effects of climate change including extreme heat, and issues around accessibility must be considered in relation to green spaces.

3.8.5 The physical environment can influence health directly (e.g. through air quality or water pollution) and more widely through how people interact with the natural and built environment (e.g. enjoying well-designed public and/or green spaces within our towns and cities). The impact of environmental factors such as climate, geography, geology, topography and environmental hazards on health is termed the environmental burden of disease, much of which (in theory) could be preventable^[117]. Key service areas such as social care, housing, education, employability and leisure also have a relationship with health inequalities and health improvement^[118]. Nature provides physical, consumable goods and services that humans cannot live without, such as breathable air, drinkable water and food. Beyond these, there are additional benefits including trees which provide fuel and plants which provide medicines^[119].

3.8.6 Key pressures and trends include:

• The population of accessible mainland areas grew rapidly (16%) between 2001 and 2021. In contrast, in very remote mainland areas there was a low (2%) population growth between 2001 and 2010 followed by a period of decline (2%) to 2020^[120].
• Life expectancy is projected to increase.
• Climate change poses a wide range of potential effects on human health. It is expected that climate change’s potential risks and benefits to population and health will not be evenly distributed^[121].
• Approximately 83% of Scotland’s people live in urban areas, with most of the population and industry concentrated in the Central Belt and on the East Coast. Of the 17% who live in rural areas, around 70% are located within a 30-minute drive of a large urban settlement^[122].
• Changes in weather patterns due to climate change present increasing risks to health from water scarcity, flood and drought.

3.9. Soil

Existing environmental protection objectives

3.9.1 The protection of soils is set out in Scotland’s National Peatland Plan^[123] and the Scottish Soil Framework^[124]. Soil objectives include national commitments to sustainable soil management and restoration that protect carbon rich soils, such as peat and other valued soils including prime quality agricultural land. For development proposals National Planning Framework 4 policy 5 on soils seeks ‘to minimise the impact on soils and maximise protection of these valuable natural resources in the long term.’ Forestry and Agriculture policies include guidelines and requirements on soil that protect soil carbon stores and aim to reduce emission losses from land management activities. The Scottish Biodiversity Strategy recognises the role of soil in supporting nature and seeks to promote the uptake of high diversity, nature-rich, high soil-carbon, low intensity farming methods while sustaining high quality food production.

Baseline conditions, pressures and trends

3.9.2 Soil is a non-renewable resource and is one of Scotland’s most important assets. Soils support a wide range of functions and provide many environmental, economic and societal benefits including^[125]:

• Providing valued habitats and sustaining and supporting biodiversity.
• Providing the basis for food and biomass production.
• Acting as a major store of terrestrial carbon and regulating the balance of gases in the air.
• Providing raw materials such as sand and sand gravel used in construction.
• Providing a platform for buildings, roads and other developments.
• Controlling and regulating environmental interactions such as water flow and quality – for example, soil sealing can change the rate at which water enters rivers and other water functions.
• Preserving cultural and archaeological heritage by providing records and protective cover.

3.9.3 Soil quality is defined as the ability of soil to carry out the above functions. Soils contribute to ecosystem services such as food provision, fibre and raw material (a provisioning service), provide clean water (a regulating service), are part of and protect Scotland’s cultural heritage (a cultural service) and deliver soil formation itself (a supporting service)^[126].

3.9.4 Scotland has a diverse range of soils, which are generally more organic, more acidic, more leached and wetter than those of most other European countries. Nearly 10% of Scotland’s agricultural land is used for arable crops (mostly in the eastern half of the country) and improved grassland, mostly on the more mineral soils of the central belt and in lowland areas, and predominantly found in the south west^[127]. The remainder of the country is occupied by semi-natural habitats over more organic soils and minerals with over 20% of Scotland being covered in peatland habitat on peat soils^[128].

3.9.5 Prime land for agriculture is defined by the James Hutton Institute’s Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA) measure^[129] and includes LCA ranges 1 to 3.1 up. This prime land makes up ~8% of Scotland’s land area, with the other 92% being made up of the following: ~20% suitable for mixed agriculture, ~18% suitable for improved grassland, ~51% suitable for rough grazing, and ~2% for urban areas.

3.9.6 Scotland’s soils play a key role as the main store of terrestrial carbon, acting as “carbon sinks”, most of it being held in soils under peatland habitat, estimated to store 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon^[130]. As with all soils, those under peatland habitat are at risk from land use change and the effects of climate change, and their degradation (and the associated loss of carbon) makes them a significant contributor to Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions. In 2023, emissions from degraded peat were 6.2 MtCO2e. Although this is 2.3 MtCO2e/yr down on 1990 levels (8.5 MtCO2e/yr) - driven largely by increases in restoration – it still represents 16% of Scotland’s total emissions and is the largest source in the land use sector.

3.9.7 The role of healthy peatlands in capturing and storing carbon, helping to reduce downstream flood risk and supporting unique biodiversity is recognised in Scotland’s National Peatland Plan^[131].

3.9.8 There is a strong correlation between soil deterioration and the increased number of extreme floods as soil sealing, soil compaction and capping exacerbates flooding as the capability of soils to absorb water decreases and water runs off more quickly. Appropriate soil management is therefore key for the development of a sustainable approach to flood risk management^[132].

3.9.9 Changes in precipitation patterns are impacting soil stability. Extended periods of rainfall increase the risk of slope and embankment instability, meaning significant risks for road and rail infrastructure. Nearly 2% of the UK’s network is at high risk of landslide disruption and an additional 6% at medium risk^[133].

3.9.10 Key pressures and trends include:

• Scotland’s soils are considered to generally be in good health.
• Approximately 80% of peatland is thought to be damaged. However, the majority of designated peatland sites were found to be in favourable condition^[134].
• Climate change and loss of organic matter pose significant threats to Scottish soils, with both likely to affect soil function.
• Changes in land use and land management practices are a key pressure on soil.

3.10. Water

Existing environmental protection objectives

3.10.1 The Water Environment and Water Services (Scotland) Act 2003 (as amended)^[135] transposed the Water Framework Directive into Scots law, setting out an objective for the protection and improvement of Scotland’s water environment, which includes rivers, lochs, transitional waters, coastal waters and groundwaters. River Basin Management Plans^[136] (RBMPs), produced by SEPA every six years, set out programmes of measures to protect and improve our water environment and achieve this objective. The Water Environment (Controlled Activities) (Scotland) Regulations 2011^[137] (CAR) provides the regulatory framework for activities that may affect Scotland’s water environment, including discharges of wastewater or industrial effluent; abstractions for irrigation, hydropower or drinking water; and engineering activities in or near rivers. During periods of prolonged dry weather Scotland’s National Water Scarcity Plan^[138] sets out how water resources are managed.

3.10.2 Scotland’s National Marine Plan covers the management of both Scottish inshore and offshore waters and guides decision making relating to marine development^[139].

Baseline conditions, pressures and trends

3.10.3 The water environment supports diverse species and habitats of national and international importance. Water also provides numerous benefits including; drinking water provision, water for use in industry and agriculture, hydropower, wave and tidal energy, fisheries, aquaculture, recreation from, for example, wildlife watching, angling and water sports^{[140] [141]}, and carbon storage^[142].

3.10.4 Scotland has a wide range of water bodies including two thirds of British river systems and streams. Scotland has over 30,000 lochs, with Loch Ness holding the most water (7.4 million m³⁾. In totality, Scotland’s freshwater bodies represents 90% of the UK’s surface freshwater.

3.10.5 Scotland’s coast stretches over 18,000 km, with marine waters out to 12 and 200 nautical miles making up Scotland’s territorial and offshore waters. Scotland's seas are around six times the size of the land area of Scotland^[143] and 37% of Scotland's seas are designated as Marine Protected Areas.

3.10.6 Much of the water environment in Scotland is in good condition. However, there are still significant problems affecting water quality, physical condition, water flows and levels, and the migration of wild fish. Invasive non-native species are also damaging aquatic plant and animal communities. River basin management plans for Scotland set out a range of actions to address these impacts^[144].

3.10.7 Climate change is impacting water management and supply in Scotland. Reduced rainfall and longer dry periods increase the risk of drought and water scarcity. Water scarcity can damage ecosystems, create difficulty in maintaining crop yields, have negative impacts on industrial operations and production, and cause private water supplies to run dry^[145].

3.10.8 In 2018, around 284,000 homes, businesses and services across Scotland were at risk of flooding from rivers, surface water and the sea. There are 235 Potentially Vulnerable Areas, where significant flood risk exists now or is likely to occur in the future. Around 90% of Scotland’s flood risk is contained within these areas^[146].

3.10.9 Between 1870 and 2016 Scottish waters warmed by an average of 0.05 to 0.07°C per decade. This has increased in the last 30 years to around 0.2°C per decade, with waters north of the Faroe-Shetland Channel reaching 0.4°C warming over the same period^[147].

3.10.10 Key pressures and trends include:

• Water quality in most of Scotland is in good or better condition, however, some localised areas of concern remain^[148].
• By 2050 it is predicted that without adaptive measure more than half of Scotland’s population will be at risk of leading to water scarcity during very dry periods, and that extreme storms will damage water and wastewater infrastructure^[149].
• Urban expansion and new housing developments can increase impermeable surfaces such as roads and roofs, reducing natural infiltration and increasing surface water runoff^[150].
• Groundwater quality and flow can be affected by diffuse pollution from rural sources^[151].
• Water abstraction and storage can place a burden on water resources, with demand growing^[152].
• Climate change is expected to lead to increases in water scarcity, flood risk, and to increase the risk of non-native species spreading and becoming established in water environments^[153].