Scotland's draft Climate Change Plan: 2026-2040: strategic environmental assessment - environmental report

1. Introduction

1.1. Purpose of the report

1.1.1 The Scottish Government is consulting on the draft version of the next Climate Change Plan (CCP), a statutory document which sets out the outcomes, policies and proposals for meeting its statutory emissions reduction targets during the plan period. This Environmental Report considers the likely significant environmental effects of these outcomes, policies and proposals to support this aim.

1.2. Background

1.2.1 Tackling the climate emergency is one of the Scottish Government’s four key priorities^[2], and the CCP is one of the Scottish Government’s foremost strategies towards mitigating the effects of climate change, as part of its wider intent to address the twin crises of climate change and nature loss.

1.2.2 The CCP is a statutory document required by the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (‘the 2009 Act’). The 2009 Act requires the Scottish Government to set out its proposals and policies for meeting its statutory emissions reduction targets during the plan period and requires that a new plan must be produced every 5 years. There have been three full CCPs so far, in 2011, 2013 and 2018, and a CCP update in 2020.

1.2.3 The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 amended the 2009 Act to set new requirements for the next CCP, including that it must take into account the Just Transition principles of the Scottish Government. It also amended the interim emissions targets, setting them for 2030 and 2040.

1.2.4 The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) 2024 Act amended the 2009 Act again to remove the framework of interim and annual targets and, instead, establish a carbon budget approach to emissions reduction target setting. This established a more flexible statutory target framework that is receptive to both the non-linear realities of long-term decarbonisation policy planning and reflects the latest advice from the Climate Change Committee (CCC). The target of reaching net zero by 2045 was unchanged.

1.2.5 The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (Scottish Carbon Budgets) Amendment Regulations 2025 amended the 2009 Act by setting the levels of the Scottish carbon budgets for each five year period, through to the net zero emissions target year in 2045. These levels take into account the advice of the CCC in their Scotland’s Carbon Budgets report^[3].

1.2.6 The forthcoming CCP, to be finalised in 2026, will cover the period from 2026-2040. This latest plan will update on Scotland’s climate change ambitions, detailing the policies and proposals to achieve the Scottish Government's duty of meeting the first three of Scotland’s carbon budget targets (running from 2026-2030, 2031-2035, and 2036-2040) and making a major contribution towards achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2045.

1.2.7 Alongside the CCP, the Scottish Government is developing a series of Just Transition Plans (JTPs), which are intended to provide detailed decarbonisation pathways for key sectors and regions, aligned with Scotland’s 2045 net-zero target. This is to help ensure that the benefits of this transition are shared by all.

1.2.8 The new CCP 2026-2040 must include the following seven climate change sectors, and can include any other sector that Scottish Ministers wish:

• energy supply;
• transport (including international aviation and shipping);
• business and industrial process;
• residential and public (in relation to buildings in those sectors);
• waste management;
• land use, land use change and forestry; and
• agriculture.

1.3. Relationship with other plans, programmes and strategies

1.3.1 Scotland’s Fourth National Planning Framework (NPF4)^[4], published and adopted in February 2023, is a long-term plan for Scotland that sets out where development and infrastructure is needed. The vision of NPF4 is to give priority to the climate emergency and nature crisis. It sets out a strategy for working towards a net zero Scotland by 2045 and signals the key priorities for ‘where’ and ‘what’ development should take place at a national level. It is part of the statutory development plan and so influences planning decisions across Scotland.

1.3.2 The draft Environment Strategy^[5], which builds on ‘Environment Strategy for Scotland: Vision and Outcomes’^[6] which was published in July 2025. It creates a holistic framework for delivering whole-of-government approach to Scotland’s role in tackling climate change, nature loss and pollution.

1.3.3 The ‘Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045’^[7] (November 2024) sets out the ambition for Scotland to be Nature Positive by 2030, and to have restored and regenerated biodiversity across the country by 2045.

1.3.4 The draft circular economy strategy^[8], published in October 2025, sets out the rationale and benefits of a more circular economy in Scotland within the wider economic framework, and describes the overall vision to 2045 and the outcomes that the Scottish Government are working towards. The Strategy is a legislative requirement of the Circular Economy (Scotland) Act 2024, and builds on the publication of the Circular Economy and Waste Route Map^[9] in December 2024.

1.3.5 The Historic Environment Strategy for Scotland ‘Our Past, Our Future’^[10] (April 2023) which seeks to harness the power of the historic environment for the benefit of society. It identifies three priority areas for action. These are enabling the transition to net zero, building a wellbeing economy and empowering vibrant, resilient, and inclusive communities and places.

1.3.6 Scotland’s Forestry Strategy 2019-2029^[11] (February 2019) which provides an overview of contemporary Scottish forestry, presents a 50-year vision for Scotland’s forests and woodlands, and sets out a 10-year framework for action.

1.3.7 The Scottish Government’s statement on ‘Sustainable and regenerative farming - next steps’^[12] (March 2022) which sets the vision for Scottish Agriculture as a leader in sustainable and regenerative farming. As part of this it recognises the important role farming, crofting and land management will continue to play in maintaining thriving rural and island communities.

1.3.8 Transport Scotland’s National Transport Strategy, developed collaboratively, continues to be the foundation on which we build our vision for the future of Scotland’s transport system. The Fourth Delivery Plan was published on 19 December 2024 and sets out the range of actions the Scottish Government will take until the end of 2025 to support the delivery of a sustainable, safe, inclusive, resilient transport system that meets the needs of individuals, businesses and visitors, and is accessible to all.

1.3.9 The Just Transition: draft plan for transport in Scotland^[13] was published in February 2025. This draft plan identifies the key challenges and opportunities that the transport sector faces in making a just transition to net zero.