Scotland's Draft Climate Change Plan: 2026-2040 - Strategic Environmental Assessment Environmental Report

Non-technical summary

Introduction

This Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been prepared to inform the Scottish Government’s consultation on the draft Climate Change Plan (CCP).

What are the aims and objectives of the CCP?

Tackling the climate emergency is one of the Scottish Government’s four key priorities, and the CCP is one of the Scottish Government’s foremost strategies towards mitigating the effects of climate change, as part of its wider intent to address the twin crises of climate change and nature loss.

This latest CCP updates on Scotland’s climate change ambitions, detailing the policies and proposals to achieve the Scottish Government's duty to meet the first three of Scotland’s carbon budgets (running from 2026-2030, 2031-2035, and 2036-2040). In doing so, this plan sets a pathway towards Scotland achieving net zero by 2045.

Beyond the emissions reduction, this plan also sets out how these targets will be met in a way that maximises the opportunities of the transition and is fair for people across Scotland.

What are the proposals and policies within the CCP?

Policies and proposals within the CCP are broken down by each sector in the economy and society within which the action will be taken forward. The sectors referenced by this plan are specified by legislation^[1]:

• energy supply;
• transport (including international aviation and shipping);
• business and industrial process;
• residential and public (in relation to buildings in those sectors);
• waste management;
• land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF); and
• agriculture.

This CCP contains 163 policies and proposals aiming to meet 30 outcomes.

What is Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)?

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is a means of systematically assessing the likely impact of a public plan on the environment and to seek ways to avoid, or minimise where possible adverse effects and enhance positive effects. SEA provides an opportunity for the public to consider this information and to use it to inform their views on the emerging proposals.

This Environmental Report sets out the findings of the assessment of the draft CCP. The Environmental Report has been published alongside the draft plan for public consultation.

The Environmental Report has been prepared in accordance with the Environmental Assessment (Scotland) Act 2005. Views are invited on both the Environmental Report and the policies and proposals outlined in the consultation paper.

What is the current state of the environment?

Scotland’s environment is rich in natural and cultural heritage and our network of European protected sites also supports many important and rare plants, birds and animals. Global declines in biodiversity are however mirrored in Scotland. Scotland’s air, soil and water are generally in good condition, but there are concentrations of pollution in some parts of the country. Some of this is historic, but there are also on-going challenges, including diffuse pollution from urban and rural areas. A high-quality environment with good air, soil and water quality is an important contributor to population health and well-being.

Climate change is expected to lead to increases in water scarcity and flood risk across Scotland and will accelerate the rate of biodiversity loss.

Scotland has high quality landscapes, with many iconic views and scenic areas. Scotland also has many natural resources and material assets, including high quality agricultural land, and extensive areas of forestry and woodland. Scotland’s land use is dominated by agriculture and forestry, which together account for around 80% of total land cover. The historic environment includes world heritage sites, listed buildings, scheduled monuments, gardens and designed landscapes, battlefields, and conservation areas. The majority of the historic environment in Scotland is, however, undesignated.

How have reasonable alternatives been considered?

Consideration of alternatives was undertaken as the emerging plan developed. The extent to which alternatives for the CCP could be considered ‘reasonable’ was influenced by the legislative framework for the plan. The context for reasonable alternatives is limited by the requirements to meet ambitious statutory emissions reduction targets. Therefore, reasonable alternatives do not include consideration of a ‘do nothing’ scenario, as the CCP is a legislative requirement of The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. Based on the current legislative context, and the declared climate emergency, it was that the current ambition can only be to achieve the maximum emissions reductions possible, reflected across all sectors based on current technical and practical limitations, and it was therefore concluded that no reasonable alternative could be identified. Possible mitigation and enhancement has, however, been considered for each CCP sector where relevant and applicable and the findings from this assessment are presented in Section 4.

What are the likely environmental effects of the options assessed?

Buildings (Residential and Public)

Overall positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, air quality, and population and human health. The use of synthetic insulation materials, which have a high carbon footprint during production, may offset some of the positive effects for climatic factors. Potential localised negative effects were identified for biodiversity, soil and water. The cumulative impact of renewable technologies like solar panels and heat pumps may alter landscapes and affect the appearance of cultural heritage assets.

Transport

Overall positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, air quality, and population and human health. Mixed effects are anticipated for material assets as greater pressure may be put on the electricity grid from the expansion of electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure, requiring upgrades to be made to facilitate this transition. There is the potential for negative impacts on biodiversity and landscape depending on the source of biomass required to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and the harvesting practices utilised.

Waste

Positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, material assets, cultural heritage, landscape, air and biodiversity through various circular economy initiatives, improved waste services, and extended producer responsibility policies. Localised negative effects on soil may arise from the construction and operation of new waste facilities.

Energy Supply

Overall positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, air quality, population and human health and material assets. Integrating Energy from Waste (EfW) facilities into heat networks requires careful planning and coordination with local authorities and energy providers. It is assumed that existing regulatory regimes will ensure that any development projects will be subject to appropriate controls, minimising the potential for any negative impacts from such schemes.

Business and Industrial Process

Overall positive effects are anticipated for air, climatic factors, population and human health, and material assets. Potential negative effects were identified for biodiversity, landscape, and cultural heritage associated with retrofitting of industrial buildings and infrastructure changes for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).

Agriculture

Positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, soils, biodiversity, water, air quality, population and human health, material assets and landscapes. The effects of investigating and encouraging uptake of technologies for alternative, improved or more efficient fertilisers are considered to be uncertain as the level of uptake cannot yet be determined due to the early-stage of technological understanding. In undertaking this assessment it has been assumed that nature friendly farming may include practices such as growing organic produce and reduced tillage.

Land use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

Positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, soils, and biodiversity, primarily through peatland restoration, rewetting, and improved monitoring. Additional benefits for water, material assets, and population and human health may arise from peatlands’ water storage function. Potential negative effects on landscape and material assets could occur due to land use conflicts, such as the loss of productive agricultural land for woodland creation or peatland restoration.

How can any negative environmental effects be avoided, minimised or mitigated or positive effects enhanced?

Where relevant and appropriate, potential mitigation measures have been identified and include:

• Supporting regional or landscape-scale coordination of actions and embedding sector-specific targets
• Careful siting and design of industrial buildings, energy infrastructure and woodland creation schemes
• Promotion of sustainable materials for construction and retrofit.

What monitoring is proposed?

Section 35B of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 requires Ministers to lay an annual progress report on each substantive chapter of the CCP.

A monitoring framework has been developed for the CCP which sets out indicators for each policy outcome and progress towards key milestones and targets. Delivery of every milestone in the CCP will contribute to reduction of emissions and many of the milestones relate to delivery of strategies, plans or policies which will have wider significant positive effects on the environment. Monitoring of progress towards key milestones and targets will therefore enable early identification of issues with delivery of positive environmental benefits and any unforeseen adverse effects. It is suggested that the monitoring of the environmental effects identified in this SEA combines the monitoring framework for the CCP with other key environmental indicators in order to identify potential correlation between progress towards outcomes and other unforeseen environmental changes, and to trigger further investigation of potential causation.

How can I comment on this SEA and how will my responses be considered?

Please respond to this consultation using the Scottish Government’s consultation hub, Citizen Space. Access and respond to this consultation online at Scottish Government consultations - Citizen Space.

Following the conclusion of the consultation period, the responses received on the proposals and this Environmental Report will be analysed and taken into account.

Further information on responding to the consultation is available in Scotland’s Climate Change Plan: 2026-2040 - Annex 4 – Responding to this Consultation.