Scenario Modelling on Social Energy Tariff Proposal

Caveats

The energy use figures used in the SHCS are based on modelled energy use and not actual household energy consumption. Modelled annual consumption is calculated based on households being placed on one of four heating regimes dependant on the characteristics of members of the household[1].

As the costs in this paper are based on modelled energy use and not actual consumption, which will vary depending on the household’s behaviour, our cost estimates may not align with other sources.

Due to this we have provided estimated costs calibrated to DESNZ statistics on domestic energy use. However, the DESNZ statistics are based on gas and electricity only, not considering other fuel types. Therefore, if all fuel types were included the ratio between modelled fuel costs in the SHCS and estimated actual fuel costs provided by DESNZ may be slightly higher or lower. As the vast majority of household in Scotland use gas as their primary heating fuel (81%) we expect any differences to be minimal, however we are unable to quantify this. 

It should be noted that the SHCS is not the official source for benefits data and relies on self-reported data gathered during the survey, therefore there may be differences with other administrative sources such as DWP data.

This analysis is based on 2023 SHCS data with no underlying changes aside from the proposed social energy tariff. Therefore, household incomes, and average fuel prices used reflect the values in the survey in 2023. Furthermore, the Cost of Living payments and the Energy Bill Support Scheme are included in this analysis[2]. This allows us to make a direct comparison to the most recent Accredited Official statistics on fuel poverty. As such, the fuel poverty rates under the proposed social energy tariff included in this analysis should be read as what fuel poverty would be in 2023 with a social tariff with all other factors remaining equal

For this analysis the number of people in a household includes everyone who lives at the address, including children, and those temporarily living away from home. For example, people working temporarily away from home, such as offshore workers, will count towards the number of people in the household.