Your Right to Decide

Endnotes

1 Corlett, A. The Living Standards Outlook 2025, The Resolution Foundation, June 2025

2 See for example “For many years, the UK economy has been marred by low growth and flatlining productivity, both by historical and international standards. We’ve been lagging behind other developed economies, and it is making it difficult for everyone to make ends meet.” Caswell, B. It’s Time To Rewrite the UK’s Fiscal Rules, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2024; “Why doesn’t the British economy grow anymore? That’s not just a question about the recent recession, it’s been the fundamental debate ever since the financial crisis, and – unlike the recession – it’s not going away any time soon.” A Growth Policy to Close Britain’s Regional Divides: What Needs to be Done, Mossavar-Rahmani Centre for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School, 2024; “The twin challenges that Britain faces – low growth and high inequality – are substantial issues on their own, but together they create a toxic combination.” Ending Stagnation, Resolution Foundation, 2023

3 Welsh Government (2021) Reforming our Union 2021

4 Theresa May, Speech to Scottish Conservative party conference, 24 March 2012

5 John P Mackintosh Memorial Lecture, 9 November 2012, as reported in Scottish independence: Darling predicts independent Scotland would rejoin UK, BBC News, 10 November 2012

6 Johann Lamont, Speech to Scottish Labour party conference, 22 March 2014

7 Henderson, A. & Wyn Jones, R. The Conservative Party’s national question, UK in a Changing Europe, 15 Sep 2022; Henderson, A. & Wyn Jones, R. (2023) Public attitudes towards the constitutional future of the UK: Analysis from the 2023 State of the Union Survey, a report for the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, see Figure 3.3

8 Report of the Royal Commission on Scottish Affairs. HMSO, 1954 (Cmnd. 9212)

9 The Labour Party (Scottish Council), The Government of Scotland: Evidence of the Labour Party in Scotland to the Commission on the Constitution, March 1970.

10 UK Government (1993) Scotland in the Union: a partnership for good HMSO, 1993 (Cmnd. 2225)

11 Scotland’s Parliament. HMSO, 1997 (Cmnd. 3658)

12 UK Government (2013) Scotland analysis: devolution and the implications of Scottish independence. HMSO, (Cmnd. 8554)

13 Scottish Government (2019) Scotland’s right to choose: putting Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands

14 National Health Service (Scotland) Act 1947

15 As observed in Martin, C. (2021) Resist, Reform or Re-run. Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, “A union is not a union of equal partners if the bigger partner does not allow the smaller one the option to leave”.

16 The Electoral Commission (2019) EU referendum results by region: Scotland

17 UK Government (2025) UK Government response to the Review of the United Kingdom Internal Market Act 2020 and Public Consultation, 15 July 2025

18 Zglinski, J. The Internal Market Act : a Global Outlier?, Cambridge Law Journal, September 2023

19 Brown Swan, C; Horsley, T; McEwen, N; and Whitten, L.C. Westminster Rules? The United Kingdom Internal Market Act and Devolution, Centre for Public Policy, University of Glasgow, 3 October 2024

20 Scottish Government (2023) Devolution since the Brexit Referendum

21 Scottish Government (2023) Devolution since the Brexit Referendum

22 UK Government, Letter from Prime Minister Boris Johnson to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon: 14 January 2020 and Letter from Prime Minister Boris Johnson to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon: 6 July 2022

23 Northern Ireland’s legally enshrined right is set out in the Northern Ireland Act 1998 as discussed further in the third chapter of this paper (“The people of Scotland make decisions about their constitutional future in elections”)

24 Gallagher, J (2015) In order to sustain itself, the UK must become a new and different Union, London School of Economics blog

25 See Northern Ireland Act 1998, and commentary in Martin, C. (2021) Resist, Reform or Re-run. Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford; Dugdale, K. & Noon, S. (2024) Scotland and the Constitution: Agreeing a way forward, Centre for Public Policy, University of Glasgow

26 Welsh Government (2021) Reforming our Union 2021

27 UK Government (2013) Scotland analysis: devolution and the implications of Scottish independence, HMSO, 2013 (Cmnd. 8554)

28 Thatcher, M., The Downing Street Years Harper Collins,1993, p624

29 UK Government (1993) Scotland in the Union: a partnership for good HMSO, 1993 (Cmnd. 2225)

30 UK Government, Prime Minister Theresa May speech on the Union: 4 July 2019

31 Davidson, R, Lamont, J and Rennie, W, Joint statement on more devolution for UK, June 2014 (Centre on Constitutional Change)

32 The Smith Commission, Report of the Smith Commission for further devolution of powers to the Scottish Parliament 2014. p.12

33 Anon, 1988. A Claim of Right for Scotland, Edinburgh: [The Campaign] Available from the National Library of Scotland

34 The Scottish Parliament voted in favour of the motion with 102 for, 14 against, and 12 members not voting. The Scottish Parliament, 2012, Motion S4M-01822 Nicola Sturgeon: Claim of Right

35 UK Parliament (2018) House of Commons debate – Claim of Right for Scotland, 4 July 2018 (Hansard)

36 The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (2024) Final Report: January 2024, Welsh Government

37 Dewdney, Richard (1997) Results of Devolution Referendums 1979 & 1997 (House of Commons Library)

38 Welsh Government (2021) Reforming our Union 2021

39 UK Government (2012) Scotland’s constitutional future: a consultation on facilitating a legal, fair and decisive referendum on whether Scotland should leave the United Kingdom HMSO, Cmnd. 8203

40 House of Commons Official Report Parliamentary Debates (Hansard), 15 January 2013, col 742

41 Cameron, D, For the Record, William Collins (2020), p. 316

42 BBC News, Scottish election 2021: Conservatives urge people to use party vote to stop indyref2, 15 April 2025; the SNP campaigned on a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum, stating “we are seeking the permission of the Scottish people in this election to hold an independence referendum, to take place after the [Covid] crisis”. As reported by BBC News Scottish election 2021: SNP policies explained, 15 April 2021

43 Sarwar, A. BBC Coverage of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election (BBC News), May 2016

44 See House of Lords Library (2014) Polling Data on the Scottish Independence Referendum, Figure 16 ‘Poll of Polls’ (p. 20); and, What Scotland Thinks (2014) Should Scotland be an independent country? (Scottish views)

45 MPs representing Scottish constituencies are 57 of the Westminster Parliament’s 650 MPs

46 See Scottish National Party 2016 Scottish Parliament Election Manifesto and Scottish Greens 2016 Scottish Parliament Election Manifesto for manifesto details; Electoral Commission (2019) Results and turnout at the 2016 Scottish Parliament election for election results

47 See Scottish National Party 2021 Scottish Parliament Election Manifesto and Scottish Greens 2021 Scottish Parliament Election Manifesto for manifest details; Scottish Parliament 2021 Scottish Parliament Election Results

48 Scottish Parliament, Official Report 28 March 2017, Scotland’s Choice Motion S5M-04710, Agreed: for 69, against 59

49 Scottish Parliament, Official Report 10 January 2023, People’s Right to Choose – Respecting Scotland’s Democratic Mandate, Motion S6M-07429, Agreed: 70 for, 54 against, 0 abstained, 5 did not vote

50 Martin, C. (2021) Resist, Reform or Re-run. Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford

51 Supreme Court (2022) REFERENCE by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998

52 Supreme Court (2022) REFERENCE by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998

53 Supreme Court (2022) REFERENCE by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998

54 Salmond, A (2014), Salmond: ‘Referendum is once in a generation opportunity’ BBC News, in conversation with Andrew Marr, 14 September 2014

55 The Scottish Parliament subsequently legislated for 16 and 17 year olds to have the right to vote in all devolved elections. The UK Government has set out its plans to lower the voting age to 16 for UK elections: UK Government (2025) Restoring trust in our democracy: Our strategy for modern and secure elections

56 This estimate is based on Scottish Government calculations using published Accredited Official Statistics: 2022-based national population projections, Scotland, principal projection, National Records of Scotland, January 2025. Table 1, below, shows for each year, an estimate of the number of people in Scotland who are of voting age in that year but who did not have the right to vote in 2014 due to being aged under 16, e.g. for 2025 this is those aged 16-26 years, who were aged under 16 in 2014. In 2029, this will be those aged 16-30. Note: National Records of Scotland publishes projections of the population as at the mid-year point (30 June) of each year. They do not, therefore, map directly on to the population born on or after 19 September 1998 (i.e. turning 16 the day after the 2014 referendum or later). For the purpose of the estimate, we count from those who were aged 16 as at 30 June 2015, and therefore aged 26 in 2025 and so on.

Source: National Records of Scotland, 2022-based national population projections, Scotland, principal projection (January 2025). The table provides Scottish Government calculations using the population projections to sum the number of people in the age groups listed each year and divide that number by the total population and by the total population of voting age to get the proportion figures in the last two columns.

57 The National Institute for Economic and Social Research suggests that, compared to EU membership, the UK economy was 2.5% smaller in 2023 and it expects that figure to rise to 5.7% in a little more than 10 years time NIESR (2023) Revisiting the Effect of Brexit – NIESR. That means £69 billion could have been wiped from national income in 2023 – equating to around about £28 billion in tax revenue. For Scotland, this would equate to a reduction in GDP of around £5 billion and a loss to public revenues of £2.3 billion. Scottish Government calculation – the estimated decrease in the size of the economy of 2.5% in 2023 from NIESR is applied to the UK’s current price GDP in 2023 to calculate the difference in size of the economy with and without Brexit in 2023. The tax-to-GDP ratio for 2022-23 is then used to calculate the difference in tax revenue between those scenarios. A population share is taken to derive the Scotland figure.

58 Scottish Government (2023) Devolution since the Brexit Referendum

59 Northern Ireland Act 1998, Schedule 1

60 The Scottish Election Study’s 2021 post-election survey asked respondents whether the May 6th election had delivered a mandate for another independence referendum in three different ways as set out in, Carman, C. Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study, Scottish Election Study, June 15, 2022. Taking the data from these three questions together, a majority of respondents (i.e. more than 50% at 95% confidence) thought that the election had delivered a mandate for another referendum.

61 UK Government, Letter from Prime Minister Boris Johnson to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon: 14 January 2020 and Letter from Prime Minister Boris Johnson to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon: 6 July 2022

62 As observed in Martin, C. (2021) Resist, Reform or Re-run. Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, “The formal position of the Government of the United Kingdom appears to be that there will be no lawful or democratic route by which to achieve Scottish independence for an unspecified number of decades.”

63 Speech to the Scottish Constitutional Convention (30 March 1989) as recounted in, Wright, K. The People Say Yes: The Making of Scotland’s Parliament. Glendaruel: Argyll Publishing, 1997, p52