The Promise Data and Evidence Group 12 Month Work Programme

5. Data and Evidence Group Sub-group Three: Long-term Projects

This group will aim to identify opportunities to improve how quantitative data is used to understand progress towards Keeping The Promise. This includes discrete research projects and improvements to the long-term data infrastructure, using methods such as data linkage. Following an initial scoping exercise which identified proposals for future data developments, as well as projects with capacity attached which were already planned or underway, three projects have been identified which will be the focus of the group over the next 12 months:

5.1 Children’s health monitoring linkage project led by Public Health Scotland

The aim of this project is to establish a robust system for monitoring health outcomes and healthcare equity among children and young people in Scotland who are looked after or care experienced. This population is known to experience disproportionate health inequalities, and addressing these disparities is a national priority under Scotland’s commitment to Keep The Promise. The project supports this goal by assessing the feasibility of building a sustainable data infrastructure that allows for the routine assessment of health and healthcare indicators. The project will evaluate the practicalities of establishing a national data linkage between the Scottish Government’s Looked After Children (CLAS) dataset (which tracks looked after and care experienced children) and health data held by Public Health Scotland (PHS).

The initial phase of the project focuses on the practicalities and safety of data linkage; ensuring this can be done effectively, securely, and to a high standard. The core aim is to test the feasibility of developing a functional, long-term health surveillance system for this population. Key milestones are centred around creating secure linkage, classifying care experience, and reporting on a set of initial health and healthcare access indicators, laying the foundation for routine monitoring and policy-relevant reporting in future years.

5.1.1 Indicative aims:

Initial feasibility analysis will explore the potential of the linked datasets to support regular reporting in several key areas. These may include domains such as dental health, immunisations, mental health and wellbeing, and healthcare use.

At this stage, across these key areas it is expected analysis will explore:

• The feasibility of identifying differences in outcomes between care experienced children and their non-care experienced peers.
• How outcomes may vary by type or duration of care experience.
• The potential to track changes in outcomes over time as new data becomes available.

5.1.2 Indicative milestones:

• End of Summer 2025:
  • Finalisation and sign-off of Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA) and Data Sharing Agreement (DSA) Ensure all legal, ethical, and governance requirements are in place to enable secure and responsible data linkage
  • Physical Transfer and Secure Sharing of Data (Dependent on DPIA and DSA) Receive and store CLAS dataset items from the Scottish Government within PHS’s secure analytical environment
• By end of 2025
  • Selection of Initial Health Outcomes and Healthcare Access Indicators (end of 2025 for initial outcome, ongoing for subsequent outcomes) In collaboration with stakeholders, identify and agree upon a core set of outcomes and indicators for initial feasibility reporting (e.g. immunisations, emergency admissions, dental health).
  • Initial Data Quality and Feasibility Testing
    • Linkage relevant health data to looked after data
    • Assess data completeness and linkage success rates
    • Identify any gaps or inconsistencies
  • Conceptual Development of Care Experience Classifications (reliant on data access and stakeholder engagement) Define and implement methods for classifying types and durations of care experience to enable meaningful analysis
• Spring 2026:
  • Assessment of Feasibility for Ongoing Surveillance Based on testing results, determine the viability of establishing a functional, long-term health surveillance system for looked after and care experienced children

5.2 Exploration of longitudinal studies

Scottish Government analysts are initiating a programme of work to explore the possibilities longitudinal surveys offer to better understand the health and wellbeing of looked after children and young people. This will include: a rapid evidence search of reports and publications from Scottish and UK longitudinal surveys that report on looked after children and a detailed analysis of an agreed shortlist of surveys. This process has several aims, which are to:

• baseline the health and wellbeing data of looked after children in Scotland
• decide whether and which surveys can support monitoring The Promise going forward
• rule out surveys that cannot provide useful data for The Promise
• see where there may be gaps in survey coverage that could be filled
• explore where linkage work may be required to make the best use of data

The results from this analysis will be presented to the Data and Evidence Group for a decision on whether further monitoring and analysis would be useful. A detailed plan for future analysis will then be developed for the second half of this 12 month workplan.

5.2.1 Indicative research questions for longitudinal surveys:

• What are the most common health issues faced by looked after children and young people (under 18)?
• How do the physical and mental health outcomes of looked after children and young people compare to those children and young people who have not been looked after?
• How does service engagement differ between children and young people who are formally looked after and those who are not - including patterns of use and, where possible, access?
• How do health outcomes change over time for looked after children and young people, and how are these influenced by factors such as placement type, length of time in care, or placement stability?
• Are there particular groups of looked after children (e.g. by age, sex, ethnicity, disability status, or care setting) who experience different outcomes or patterns of service use?

5.2.2 Indicative milestones

• July-September 2025: rapid evidence review conducted and written up
• July-November 2025: shortlist of surveys to be explored agreed and analysis undertaken
• November 2025: presentation to Data and Evidence Group on analysis thus far and decision taken on future work

5.3 Development of a Promise ARI (Areas of Research Interest)

This project aims to explore the feasibility of developing an Area of Research Interest (ARI) to guide future research and evidence generation around The Promise. An ARI would set out the key research priorities that have been identified around The Promise, promoting the alignment of future research with real-world policy needs. An ARI does not serve a statement of policy priorities, nor a commitment to commissioning research, but rather makes the research priorities visible and accessible to funders and institutions. ARIs are currently being developed across policy areas in Scottish Government and with partners.

The initial phase of the project will focus on scoping and planning the feasibility of developing an ARI specifically for The Promise, with the potential for drafting and publication in subsequent phases.

5.3.1 Indicative milestones

• September 2025: Scoping Phase Begins – Initial stakeholder mapping and review of existing ARIs to identify alignment opportunities.
• September - December 2025: Feasibility Assessment – Conduct internal engagement and develop a proposed timeline and structure for the ARI.
• Early 2026: Data and Evidence Group Review – Present findings and proposed approach to the Data and Evidence Group for approval.
• Spring 2026 (conditional): Drafting Phase – If approved, begin drafting the ARI, incorporating feedback and further stakeholder input.
• June 2026 (conditional): publication of initial ARIs: as part of Data and Evidence Group annual report.
• Autumn 2026 (conditional): Publication – Finalise and publish the ARI, making it available to guide research engagement.