The Promise Data and Evidence Group 12 Month Work Programme

3. Data and Evidence Group Sub-group One: Promise Progress Framework

The Promise Progress Framework was launched at the same time as the Promise Story of Progress, and aims to provide a framework for answering question 1: How is Scotland doing in its progress towards keeping The Promise? It is structured around 10 vision statements which set out what Scotland needs to look and feel like by 2030 in order for The Promise to be kept. Beneath this, sit measurable outcomes where this change should be seen, and indicators to help understand whether progress is being made towards these outcomes.

The main objectives of Subgroup One are to:

1. Quality assure quantitative data published in the outcomes and indicators within the current iteration of the Promise Progress Framework, while a dashboard to display indicators within the framework is being developed.

2. Identify any gaps in the outcomes and indicators within the vision statements.

3. Provide recommendations on data development which may fill quantitative data gaps to improve the current outcomes and indicators.

To meet these objectives, Subgroup one activity will be twofold:

3.1 Promise Progress Framework Dashboard

The Promise Scotland will oversee the design of a dashboard, where indicators within the Promise Progress Framework will be updated and displayed in an interactive format. This will allow for indicators which are published at points throughout the year to be updated at agreed intervals, instead of via a static annual report. As a critical product to helping Scotland understand progress towards keeping The Promise, a process for assuring the robustness of the indicators within the framework, and how progress will be assessed.

A large proportion of the data in the Promise Progress Framework is published by the Scottish Government. Subgroup One will work in partnership with the Promise Scotland and COSLA to develop the dashboard which is scheduled to go live in September 2025.

The data presented in the framework is drawn from multiple sources which are updated at different frequencies and times throughout the year. The Promise Scotland and COSLA will feed into subgroup one to contribute to the maintenance of the dashboard, and agree an annual update schedule.

Since the dashboard will be a critical product, driving scrutiny of progress towards achieving The Promise, a robust assurance process will be put in place to ensure the quality of the data and any assessment of progress. Consideration will be given to what we can learn from the successful approach taken by the National Performance Framework to delivering robust progress assessments on top of official statistics. The Scottish Government’s Chief Statistician will play a role in leading and coordinating this work, providing independent advice and ensuring that the principles of timeliness, value, and quality from the Code of Practice for Statistics are embedded at each stage.

The subgroup’s contribution to the framework dashboard will include two phases of work, to:

1. Work with the Office of the Chief Statistician to produce guidance which will inform the approach to the updating of the dashboard. This will be agreed and complete by September 2025, and will be presented to respective Governance boards for sign off.

2. Set up the ongoing process to collate and quality assure the data from relevant Analytical Services Divisions across the Scottish Government which will be added to the Promise Progress Framework dashboard.

3.1.1 Indicative Milestones & Outputs

• June – September 2025: engage with the Office of the Chief Statistician and Analytical Leadership Group.
• September 2025: Produce procedural guidance with recommendations from Chief Statistician.
• September 2025: Proposed approach for updating dashboard submitted and cleared through respective Governance routes.
• September 2025: Promise Progress Framework Dashboard will go live on the Plan 24-30 website with existing data.
• September 2025 – June 2026: Begin updating indicators within the dashboard with PPF co-authors.

3.2 Promise Progress Framework Data Improvement

The framework has been developed in line with a set of five agreed key principles:

1. Insights, not targets, driven intended to be used and contextualised within organisations’ own settings.

2. Focused on use and burden reduction rather than setting up any new reporting requirements.

3. Non-exhaustive where indicators are intended to evolve and expand as data improvements and understanding deepens.

4. Aligned with pre-existing frameworks placing data about care experienced children and families within the context of the wider population of children and young people and national level data.

5. Expansive collating indicators from health, inspection, social work, poverty, education, and justice data to chart progress towards outcomes.

All five of the principles are driving improvement of the data and evidence landscape. This initial work will focus on principle three, where a review of the outcomes and indicators within each vision statement will be carried out to identify data gaps and potential opportunities to improve the indicators available for inclusion within the framework.

3.2.1 Data Mapping

A data mapping exercise will be conducted to identify gaps in the quantitative data held at a national level, highlight data development ideas and resource requirements to fill these gaps.

During the first three months of the work programme, subgroup one will review the quantitative data that is identified against each of the 10 vision statements by examining:

• Pro forma returns from DEG members.
• Gaps which were identified in the first iteration of the framework prior to publication in December 2024.
• Any additional indicators or new (better) indicators to replace existing ones – to reflect new data coming onstream or that proposes data, e.g. including a care experience marker in existing surveys, identifying the most appropriate existing surveys.
• Subgroup analysis of key indicators (including e.g. early years, sex, SIMD, ethnicity etc)
• Use of longitudinal analysis to link different outcomes, e.g. links between child protection and becoming looked after. This will involve collaboration with sub-group three. Options to include quantitative experiential data-based indicators in the future, with the potential to be underpinned by developing questions for including in surveys or based on the findings and subsequent recommendations of the qualitative research sub-group.

3.2.2 Data Review Report

Following the data mapping exercise, a Data Review Report will be submitted to the Data and Evidence Group highlighting the gaps and areas for development in the Framework. This work will inform the prioritisation of data development activity which will take place during the 25-26 work programme and in subsequent years. These recommendations will be presented by sub-group One.

3.2.3 Data Development

Following the prioritisation exercise the group will begin scoping future data improvements to address evidence gaps. Where needed, recommendations will be shared with sub-group three, to ensure that longer-term projects to improve the data infrastructure are aligned to addressing the gaps identified.

3.2.4 Indicative Milestones & Outputs

• June – September 2025: Produce, Vision Statement mapping workbook with assessment of the first iteration of the Promise Progress Framework.
• September – December 2025: Produce paper presenting findings from the data mapping exercise.
• December 2025: Submit and present final paper with recommendations to Data and Evidence Group.
• December 2025 – January 2026: Prioritisation of Data Improvement areas informed by the data mapping exercise.
• February – May 2026: Develop and update chosen priority areas.