Herring in the Firth of Clyde - recommending the total allowable catch 2025: consultation analysis

3. Outcome and next steps

In this section we have set out the Scottish Government’s recommended outcome and next steps.

3.1 Consideration of scientific advice and consultation responses

The Scottish Government, as responsible fisheries managers, have a long standing objective to set sustainable TAC limits based on the best available scientific evidence while considering our stakeholders’ views and wider obligations. As outlined above, a wide range of views have been submitted through the consultation process. While a number of respondents supported the rollover TAC proposal on the basis of the current evidence base, at the other end of the spectrum, some respondents suggested a 0 TAC should be taken until more robust evidence is gathered, and another suggesting an increase in TAC in order for a sentinel fishery to take place.

We fully considered all views submitted by respondents. We acknowledge the concerns cited around limitations in the survey data, however, we remain confident in the available scientific evidence used to inform our proposal.

For data limited stocks, where MSY cannot be quantified, a precautionary approach must still be taken based on the information available. Current knowledge of the Clyde herring stock is insufficient to be able to estimate MSY, but the MD’s report informs a management approach which is expected to be sustainable in the long-term for both the stock and the ecosystem.

The ICES advice for the 6aN West of Scotland autumn spawning herring component is not a suitable alternative, as while it is noted that Clyde herring are likely linked to other herring stocks in the region, the levels of intermixing are currently unknown. Therefore, Clyde herring and 6aN autumn spawning herring are currently deemed as separate stocks, and subject to their own evidence base and TAC setting process.

The specific stock surveys provided in section 6 of the consultation document, suggest an apparent increase in biomass, particularly during Q4, as well as the presence of an adult cohort which gives rise to some optimism that Clyde herring stocks are increasing. However, we have remained precautionary in our approach by proposing a rollover of the 2024 TAC rather than increasing it at this stage, particularly given the relatively poor state of several herring stocks to the west of the British Isles and the high likelihood that juvenile herring in the Clyde are from one or more of these stocks.

While not a pelagic focused survey, the data collected would signal any significant changes of Clyde herring compared to historic data sets. Therefore, the lack of a specific herring survey is not a sufficient reason to decrease the TAC any further at this time.

The limitations of the currently available fisheries data prevent a formula or model that can be used to determine an analytical TAC level, although it is a longer-term aspiration to develop a stock assessment model suitable for inclusion into the ICES process. Therefore, any changes that are proposed are done as proportional increases or decreases against this historical TAC depending on signal changes seen in the long-term annual science surveys. We are confident that the baseline historic TAC, which we may propose proportional changes against, is accurate. This was determined when more surveys were conducted and analysis of the herring landed occurred.

The uptake on this stock has been extremely limited in recent years. However, regardless of fishing activity, we remain confident that if the quota was fully utilised in compliance with the control measures, then the fishery would still be fished at sustainable levels. Furthermore, we consider the current control measures to be proportionate to protect the herring population and the wider ecosystem while providing the opportunity to fish the stock, particularly during late summer.

3.2 Wider obligations

When setting or recommending TAC limits, one of our fundamental objectives is to set sustainable limits which are informed by the best available scientific evidence. This is an underlying principle which reflects national and international commitments and objectives, including the UK Fisheries Act, the Joint Fisheries Statement, the National Marine Plan, and the Fisheries Management Strategy, which have been at the forefront of the decision-making process for recommending the 2025 Clyde herring TAC.

The evidence available indicates that the management approach for 2025:

a) is environmentally sustainable in the long term, managed to achieve economic, social and employment benefits and contribute to the availability of food supplies.

b) aligns with the precautionary approach.

c) ensures negative impacts on marine ecosystems are minimised.

3.3 Conclusion

Having considered the best available scientific information, the wider obligations and analysed all responses submitted through the consultation process, the TAC for 2025 has been recommended to the UK Secretary of State at 583 tonnes. This is a rollover of the 2024 TAC and retains the existing management measures.

3.4 Next steps

The Scottish Government has made a recommendation to the UK Secretary of State. A determination on the TAC level will subsequently be made by the Secretary of State and licences issued.

The majority of respondents noted that additional and more recent data was required to give a more robust assessment of the stock.

As highlighted during the stakeholder meeting on 9 June 2025, there is currently limited resources for MD to carry out a specific Clyde herring survey. However, we remain confident that any signal changes in the population will be detected as part of the long-term annual Bottom Trawl Survey in Q1 and Q4.

In addition, and as outlined in the consultation, the MD continues to request any relevant additional data that fishers, research organisations, universities or other stakeholders may hold on the Clyde herring stock. A number of respondents also offered to provide evidence and/or assist in collection of data to provide greater understanding on the health of the stock. MD observers also have availability to accompany fishers on vessels to conduct bycatch surveys as an additional means of gathering data. If this is an opportunity stakeholders would be interested in then please contact Campbell Pert (Campbell.Pert@gov.scot) to facilitate this.

Consideration will be given to any data which:

• Is verified numerical data.
• Records some or all of: fish weights, lengths, ages, and maturities. Examples may include herring surveys, herring sampling data, fishers’ logbook data (detailing catch, location, reported landings).

Please submit any data to mss.fisheries.advice@gov.scot and Campbell Pert (Campbell.Pert@gov.scot) by 31 December 2025, to allow for consideration during 2026.

As also outlined in the consultation document, we intend to engage with stakeholders in the coming months to discuss future management of the stock, for 2026 onwards, which will include the option of recommending moving to a monitoring TAC for Clyde herring for 2026. If you have not already done so, please register your interest via email to clydeherring@gov.scot. Officials will also engage with other UK Fishing Authorities on the discussions and options under consideration.