GDP monthly estimate: September 2022

Monthly GDP is much more volatile than quarterly GDP. Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in September, after a revised positive growth of 0.1% in August. GDP is now 0.1% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

The Office for National Statistics noted some common themes reported by businesses in survey responses for the UK September Monthly GDP statistics, although they note that it is difficult to quantify these effects. Some businesses reported challenging conditions, with the price of energy and the price of fuel continuing to be cited as particular difficulties. Others reported an impact on their turnover following industrial action with strikes being carried out across various sectors. Many businesses also reported currency exchange as an issue that affected them, with a weaker pound making it less affordable to import inputs. Finally, many businesses reported that the additional bank holiday led to a drop in their turnover because there were fewer trading days in the month.

For the three months to September, GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% compared to the previous three month period. This is a slight slowdown in growth after output remained flat (0.0% growth) between 2022 Quarter 1 and 2022 Quarter 2.