GDP Monthly Estimate: May 2026

In May the low level sectors with the largest positive contribution to three-month GDP growth was Retail, Wholesale & Motor Trade, which contributed around 0.1 percentage points towards overall growth. The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector made the largest negative contribution, contributing around 0.1 percentage points towards three-month GDP growth.

In the three months to May 2026, compared to the three months to February 2026, output in the Services sector output is estimated to have grown by 0.5%, while the Production sector is estimated to have grown by 1.0%. Construction sector output grew by 1.5% in the three months to May.

As reported by the Office for National Statistics, there were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in May 2026, as part of the monthly business surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

The conflict in Iran, which started at the end of February, has been cited by various businesses in terms of May 2026 data. These comments were cited in some manufacturing industries, wholesale, land transport services, warehousing and support activities for transportation, accommodation, travel agencies and creative arts and entertainment. These mainly stated the conflict in Iran had an impact in terms of reduced output in May 2026.

A common theme of comments received by the monthly business survey was disruption in global supply chains because of the conflict in Iran. This is also supported by our recent Business Insights and Conditions in Scotland. Of trading businesses, 6.7% reported global supply chain disruption in May 2026 and 47.3% of these cited the Middle East as the cause.

Figure 2:  Retail, Wholesale & Motor Trade contributed 0.2 percentage points towards the three-month GDP growth of 0.6%

Industry contribution to three-month GDP growth, May 2026