GDP monthly estimate: July 2022
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates are designated as experimental official statistics, meaning they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage.
Cross-Industry Themes
Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in July, after falling by 0.8% in June, and growing by 0.7% in May. GDP is now 0.1% above the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.
The Office for National Statistics noted some common themes reported by businesses in survey responses for the UK July Monthly GDP statistics, although they note that it is difficult to quantify these effects. The Met Office reported that mean temperatures across the UK in July were the joint-fifth warmest since 1884, with 40 degrees Celsius being exceeded for the first time in the UK (although the mean temperature in Scotland was lower). The heat seems to have had an effect on the UK economy, with the weather being reported as a reason for increased turnover in ice cream manufacturing, amusement parks, golf clubs, maintenance and repair of vehicles, boat hire, marquee hire, lidos and outdoor pools, wholesale of water coolers, wholesale of fruit and the provision of courier services, where increased deliveries of summer clothing and fans were reported.
UK-wide respondents also reported staff shortages as being an issue. Hotels and hospitality services were particularly badly affected, but comments were also received from manufacturers of health and beauty products, sheet metal fabricators, haulage companies, solicitors, and cleaning companies.
For the three months to July, GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% compared to the previous three month period. This is a slight slowdown in growth after output remaining flat (0.0% growth) between 2022 Quarter 1 and 2022 Quarter 2.
Revisions
Estimates in this release remain consistent with the GDP Quarterly First Estimate for 2022 Quarter 2 published on 31 August, and there are no revisions to quarterly growth rates (3 month on 3 month growth at March, June, September, December) relative to the June GDP release. The monthly path within each quarter is open for revision throughout time, but results are constrained to the previous estimates at the quarterly level.
Background Information
Contact
email: economic.statistics@gov.scot
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