Monthly economic brief: October 2020

Output

Footnote ^[1]

Scotland’s GDP data for August showed that output continued to recover from the record fall in April, however like the UK as a whole, the pace of recovery slowed from June and July.

• Scotland’s GDP grew 2.6% in August, its fourth consecutive month of growth, after falling by 19.5% in April and by 5.2% in March. The growth in August, reflected the ongoing recovery in business activity, as restrictions from the national lockdown eased.

• The growth in output between May and August recovered around 60% of the significant falls in output in March and April, however Scotland’s GDP remained 9.4% below its level in February before national lockdown restrictions were introduced. 
• At a sector level, growth was uneven in August, with a marginal fall in Production sector output (-0.3%), while the Construction (3.8%) and Services (3.3%) sectors continued to grow. 
• Furthermore, the pace of recovery in output back to pre-pre-pandemic levels in February, continues to vary greatly by sector and has been impacted by the scale of the initial fall in output, the ongoing impacts of restrictions on the sector and the extent to which demand is recovering.
• In August, the Production sector was 6% below its February level, while the Construction sector was 9% down and the Services sector was 10% down.  Within the Services sector, there remains significant variation with Accommodation and Food Services 31% below its February level and Financial and Insurance Activities down 3%. 

• The path of Scottish GDP during the pandemic has broadly been in line with the UK as a whole.  In August, UK GDP grew 2.1%, its fourth consecutive month of growth, though the pace of growth had slowed from May, June and July and output remains 9.2% below its level in February.
• The scale and duration of lockdown restrictions varied across countries and regions during the first half of the year and had different impacts on economic output. In Q2 2020, US GDP fell 9.0% (following a 1.3% fall in Q1) and Eurozone GDP fell 11.8% (following a 3.7% fall in Q1).