Assessing the costs of meeting Scotland's zero waste targets: report

Annex B: Scenarios and Results

Scenarios

Table B-1 Waste Forecast Scenarios

Scenario Number	Description
Scenario 1a. Do Nothing (With Landfill Fines)	Continue at 2008/2009 levels of municipal waste processing and at present cost levels. No change in waste streams. The appropriate landfill fines are imposed.
Scenario 1b. Do Nothing (No Landfill Fines)	Continue at 2008/2009 levels of municipal waste processing and at present cost levels. No change in waste streams. No landfill fines are imposed.
Scenario 2. EUWFD Only	Meet all EU statutory obligations (only) such as the Waste Framework Directive and the Landfill Directive (e.g. landfill targets for 2010, 2013 and 2020; and 50% recycling/composting by 2020), but not the Scottish Government targets.
Scenario 3. EUWFD & SG Targets (50/20)	Meet all EU statutory obligations and all Scottish Government targets. This scenario assumes a 50/20 split between source segregation and residual waste to meet the 70% recycling and composting target.
Scenario 4. EUWFD & SG targets (60/10)	Meet all EU statutory obligations and all Scottish Government targets as per scenario 3 except this scenario assumes a 60/10 split between source segregation and residual waste to meet the 70% recycling and composting target.
Scenario 5. EUWFD & SG Targets (65/5)	Meet all EU statutory obligations and all Scottish Government targets as per scenario 3 except this scenario assumes a 65/5 split between source segregation and residual waste to meet the 70% recycling and composting target.
Scenario 6. EfW cap by 2018	Meet all EU statutory obligations and all Scottish Government targets as in scenario 3 except that EfW reaches its 25% cap earlier in 2018.

Source: SQW Energy

Cost Benefit Analysis Results (2010 to 2025) - NPV

Table B-2 - Cost Benefit Analysis (2010 to 2025) - All Figures NPV

Scenario	Collectn (£ m's)	Processing (£ m's)	Landfill Fines (£m's)	Infrastr. Investment (£ m's)	Benefits ROC Off (£ m's)	NPC above current spend ROCs OFF (£ m's)	Benefits ROC On £ m's	NPC above current spend ROCs ON (£ m's)
1a. Do Nothing (with Fines)	£2,480	£4,115	£1,288	£91	£559	2,346	907	1,997
1a. Do Nothing (No Fines)	£2,480	£4,115	0	£91	£559	1,058	907	709
2. EU Only	£3,347	£3,431	0	£434	£697	1,445	1,104	1,038
3. EU & SG Targets (50/20)	£3,763	£3,006	0	£449	£682	1,467	998	1,152
4. EU & SG Targets (60/10)	£3,724	£2,888	0	£342	£682	1,203	998	887
5. EU & SG Targets (65/5)	£3,695	£2,799	0	£303	£682	1,046	998	730
6. EfW Cap by 2018	£3,811	£2,981	0	£646	£741	1,628	1,122	1,247

Source: SQW Energy

Adding ROCs has the effect of reducing the NPC for all the scenarios. The order of the scenarios remains the same, except for Scenario 1b which now becomes the most competitive, being slightly more cost competitive than Scenario 5.

Scenario 1a and 1b - Infrastructure Requirement Table

Table B-3 Additional waste infrastructure required in Scotland (Scenario 1a and 1b)

Waste infrastructure required	No. of units	Operational capacity per unit*	Total Capacity*
aerobic (1,000t)	2	1,000	2,000
aerobic (10,000t)	0	10,000	0
aerobic (25,000t)	5	25,000	125,000
aerobic (50,000t)	0	50,000	0
anaerobic (1,000t)	3	1,000	3,000
anaerobic (5,000t)	8	5,000	40,000
anaerobic (30,000t)	2	30,000	60,000
anaerobic (50,000t)	1	50,000	50,000
EfW (8,000t)	1	8,000	8,000
EfW (64,000t)	0	64,000	0
EfW (200,000t)	0	200,000	0
MBT (8,000t)	0	8,000	0
MBT (40,000t)	2	40,000	80,000
MBT (80,000t)	2	80,000	160,000

* Energy from Waste and MBT plants are assumed to operate at 80% of total stated capacity to reflect downtime for maintenance and repairs.
Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 1a and 1b - Infrastructure Requirement Chart

Figure B-1 Infrastructure Capacity Requirement (Scenario 1a and 1b)

Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 2 - Infrastructure Requirement Table

Table B-4 Additional waste infrastructure required in Scotland (Scenario 2)

Waste infrastructure required	No. of units	Operational capacity per unit*	Total Capacity*
aerobic (1,000t)	0	1,000	0
aerobic (10,000t)	4	10,000	40,000
aerobic (25,000t)	2	25,000	50,000
aerobic (50,000t)	0	50,000	0
anaerobic (1,000t)	3	1,000	3,000
anaerobic (5,000t)	12	5,000	60,000
anaerobic (30,000t)	2	30,000	60,000
anaerobic (50,000t)	1	50,000	50,000
EfW (8,000t)	5	8,000	40,000
EfW (64,000t)	4	64,000	256,000
EfW (200,000t)	0	200,000	0
MBT (8,000t)	4	8,000	32,000
MBT (40,000t)	3	40,000	120,000
MBT (80,000t)	7	80,000	560,000

* Energy from Waste and MBT plants are assumed to operate at 80% of total stated capacity to reflect downtime for maintenance and repairs.
Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 2 - Infrastructure Requirement Chart

Figure B-2 Infrastructure Capacity Requirement (Scenario 2)

Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 3 - Infrastructure Requirement Table

Table B-5 Additional waste infrastructure required in Scotland (Scenario 3)

Waste infrastructure required	No. of units	Operational capacity per unit*	Total Capacity*
aerobic (1,000t)	0	1,000	0
aerobic (10,000t)	2	10,000	20,000
aerobic (25,000t)	2	25,000	50,000
aerobic (50,000t)	3	50,000	150,000
anaerobic (1,000t)	4	1,000	4,000
anaerobic (5,000t)	5	5,000	25,000
anaerobic (30,000t)	5	30,000	150,000
anaerobic (50,000t)	2	50,000	100,000
EfW (8,000t)	4	8,000	32,000
EfW (64,000t)	6	64,000	384,000
EfW (200,000t)	0	200,000	0
MBT (8,000t)	4	8,000	32,000
MBT (40,000t)	4	40,000	160,000
MBT (80,000t)	9	80,000	720,000

* Energy from Waste and MBT plants are assumed to operate at 80% of total stated capacity to reflect downtime for maintenance and repairs.
Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 3 - Infrastructure Requirement Chart

Figure B-3 Infrastructure Capacity Requirement (Scenario 3)

Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 4 - Infrastructure Requirement Table

Table B-6 Additional waste infrastructure required in Scotland (Scenario 4)

Waste infrastructure required	No. of units	Operational capacity per unit*	Total Capacity*
aerobic (1,000t)	0	1,000	0
aerobic (10,000t)	2	10,000	20,000
aerobic (25,000t)	2	25,000	50,000
aerobic (50,000t)	3	50,000	150,000
anaerobic (1,000t)	4	1,000	4,000
anaerobic (5,000t)	5	5,000	25,000
anaerobic (30,000t)	5	30,000	150,000
anaerobic (50,000t)	2	50,000	100,000
EfW (8,000t)	4	8,000	32,000
EfW (64,000t)	4	64,000	256,000
EfW (200,000t)	0	200,000	0
MBT (8,000t)	1	8,000	8,000
MBT (40,000t)	3	40,000	120,000
MBT (80,000t)	12	80,000	960,000

* Energy from Waste and MBT plants are assumed to operate at 80% of total stated capacity to reflect downtime for maintenance and repairs.
Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 4 - Infrastructure Requirement Chart

Figure B-4 Infrastructure Capacity Requirement (Scenario 4)

Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 5 - Infrastructure Requirement Table

Table B-7 Additional waste infrastructure required in Scotland (Scenario 5)

Waste infrastructure required	No. of units	Operational capacity per unit*	Total Capacity*
aerobic (1,000t)	0	1,000	0
aerobic (10,000t)	2	10,000	20,000
aerobic (25,000t)	2	25,000	50,000
aerobic (50,000t)	3	50,000	150,000
anaerobic (1,000t)	4	1,000	4,000
anaerobic (5,000t)	5	5,000	25,000
anaerobic (30,000t)	5	30,000	150,000
anaerobic (50,000t)	2	50,000	100,000
EfW (8,000t)	4	8,000	32,000
EfW (64,000t)	4	64,000	256,000
EfW (200,000t)	0	200,000	0
MBT (8,000t)	1	8,000	8,000
MBT (40,000t)	3	40,000	120,000
MBT (80,000t)	12	80,000	960,000

* Energy from Waste and MBT plants are assumed to operate at 80% of total stated capacity to reflect downtime for maintenance and repairs.
Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 5 - Infrastructure Requirement Chart

Figure B-5 Infrastructure Capacity Requirement (Scenario 5)

Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 6 - Infrastructure Requirement Table

Table B-8 Additional waste infrastructure required in Scotland (Scenario 6)

Waste infrastructure required	No. of units	Operational capacity per unit*	Total Capacity*
aerobic (1,000t)	0	1,000	0
aerobic (10,000t)	2	10,000	20,000
aerobic (25,000t)	2	25,000	50,000
aerobic (50,000t)	3	50,000	150,000
anaerobic (1,000t)	4	1,000	4,000
anaerobic (5,000t)	5	5,000	25,000
anaerobic (30,000t)	5	30,000	150,000
anaerobic (50,000t)	2	50,000	100,000
EfW (8,000t)	6	8,000	48,000
EfW (64,000t)	8	64,000	512,000
EfW (200,000t)	0	200,000	0
MBT (8,000t)	8	8,000	64,000
MBT (40,000t)	5	40,000	200,000
MBT (80,000t)	10	80,000	800,000

* Energy from Waste and MBT plants are assumed to operate at 80% of total stated capacity to reflect downtime for maintenance and repairs.
Source: SQW Energy

Scenario 6 - Infrastructure Requirement Chart

Figure B-6 Infrastructure Capacity Requirement (Scenario 6)

Source: SQW Energy

Annual Nominal Additional Cost

Table B-9 - Annual Additional Costs in Excess of Existing Expenditure (Nominal)

Scenario	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
1a	40	69	115	205	242	253	262	278	287	295	311	311	311	311	311	311
1b	40	69	83	138	140	143	143	149	149	149	156	156	156	156	156	156
2	41	62	89	137	175	187	187	215	216	217	225	225	225	225	225	225
3	41	63	92	136	172	189	189	208	210	211	218	224	229	235	237	240
4	41	62	87	120	149	149	149	148	147	146	213	219	224	232	234	237
5	41	62	87	120	149	149	149	148	147	146	144	143	140	231	234	237
6	39	62	91	138	178	193	195	221	244	245	252	264	264	265	282	283

Source: SQW Energy

Annual Nominal Additional Cost

Figure B-7 - Annual Additional Costs in Excess of Existing Expenditure (Nominal)

Source: SQW Energy