Labour Market Trends: March 2026

Key Points

• early seasonally adjusted estimates for February 2026 from HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information indicate that there were 2.45 million payrolled employees in Scotland, a decrease of 0.2% (-5,000) compared with February 2025. This compares with the UK where the number of payrolled employees also decreased by 0.2% over the same period
• early seasonally adjusted estimates for February 2026 from HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information indicate that median monthly pay for payrolled employees in Scotland was £2,595, an increase of 3.6% in nominal terms compared with February 2025. This is lower than the growth in median monthly pay for the UK over the same period (4.1%). Changes over time are based on median monthly pay estimates rounded to the nearest pound
• in February 2026, the estimated claimant count in Scotland was 106,700, an increase of 2,100 (2.0%) over the month but a decrease of 1,800 (-1.7%) over the year. The claimant count unemployment rate estimate in February 2026 was 3.5%, compared with 4.4% for the UK as a whole

Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates for January to March 2025 onwards include the full impact of the recovery effort made to the LFS data collection and sampling methods introduced by ONS from January 2024. However, these estimates may still be subject to the effect of further ongoing improvements. An increased amount of volatility will remain in the LFS estimates from mid-2023 until the end of 2024. Therefore, ONS still advise caution when interpreting changes over time including these time periods and continue to recommend using the LFS estimates as part of the wider suite of labour market indicators, alongside Claimant Count and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information estimates.

Latest estimates sourced from the ONS Labour Force Survey are for November 2025 to January 2026, compared with the quarter before (August to October 2025). Please note percentage point changes are based on unrounded data.

• estimates for November 2025 to January 2026 indicate that over the quarter, the employment rate decreased slightly, the unemployment rate increased slightly while the economic inactivity rate was fairly constant
• the estimated unemployment rate (16 and over) in Scotland was 3.9%, up 0.1 percentage points over the quarter. Scotland's unemployment rate was below the UK rate of 5.2%
• the estimated employment rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work) in Scotland was 74.8%, down 0.1 percentage points over the quarter. Scotland's employment rate was below the UK rate of 75.1%
• the estimated economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 years who were not working and not seeking or available to work) in Scotland was 22.1%, similar to the previous quarter. Scotland's economic inactivity rate was above the UK rate of 20.7%