Scottish Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission report: Justice That Works

Chair’s Foreword

It has been an honour to chair the Scottish Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission, established to examine how Scotland can achieve a sustainable prison population – to ask what is working, what is not and why, and how we can build a justice system that better serves the people of Scotland.

Our prison population rate is consistently among the highest in Western Europe and reached a new highest recorded level of 8,441 on the morning of 11th November 2025. Prisons are overcrowded and overstretched, placing pressure on staff, limiting opportunities for rehabilitation, and restricting access to purposeful activity. The proportion of individuals held on remand remains higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic. These pressures are not simply operational – they are structural – and year on year they are getting more acute. They have collateral consequences for individuals and communities after release. Without reform, Scotland risks a justice system that is neither sustainable nor effective.

Having a high prison population does not equate to a safer society – in fact the evidence suggests the opposite. Reconviction rates are higher for those imprisoned for short sentences compared to Community Payback Orders, and overcrowding reduces the effectiveness of rehabilitation programmes for people convicted of more serious offences. Having a justice system that does not work increases reoffending rates, creates more victims and makes our communities less safe.

I am in no doubt that prison will always be necessary for those who commit the most serious offences or who pose a risk of significant harm to others. That is why it is so important that rehabilitative opportunities are available in our prisons for the people who do need to be there. However, Scotland’s current level of imprisonment includes individuals who do not pose such risks and goes far beyond what is required for public safety. While it is as high as it is, there is little possibility for meaningful rehabilitation.

One option open to us was to recommend building more prisons. Scotland could accept that it will always have a higher prison population than its peers and find the substantial sums of money required to maintain that policy. We rejected that path. Over the last year, not one person has made the case to us that the Scottish people are uniquely criminal, or Scotland inherently requires more prisoners than other countries.

Furthermore, expanding capacity might ease short-term pressure, but it would not reduce reoffending. It would take many years and significant additional capital funding and running costs but it would not address the causes of crime, and it would divert resources from the services that do make a lasting difference. We believe that in these times of considerable budget restraint, Scotland’s finances could be spent far more effectively.

Instead, the Commission has set a clear ambition: that Scotland should work towards reducing its prison population in line with the European average¹ – doing the calculations for our nation, that works out at approximately 5,775 people. This would mark a decisive shift away from over-reliance on imprisonment towards approaches that are proven to reduce crime and still protect the public. This ambition is about effectiveness: short sentences are counterproductive, and long-term prisoners who need to be in custody cannot be rehabilitated effectively while prisons are so overcrowded.

Achieving this goal will require change at every stage of the system. Our report is structured as the journey – the different paths a person may take towards, through, and beyond conflict with the law. It begins with prevention and early intervention, moves through alternatives to court proceedings, bail and remand, custodial sentences, community sentencing, what happens in prison, rehabilitation processes, and release from custody. At every stage, our focus has been on what works to rehabilitate and reduce offending, and therefore to reduce harm, improve lives, and strengthen public safety.

For too long, prevention has been acknowledged as the best approach in principle but not embedded in practice. It has featured in strategies and speeches but has rarely driven how services are designed, funded, and delivered. If we are serious about reducing offending and keeping people out of custody, prevention must become a core purpose of public policy. That means making it a shared responsibility, with accountability for outcomes, across all public services. Not just those traditionally associated with justice such as the police, prosecutors, courts and prisons – health, education, housing, social work, and employment all have vital roles to play.

Swift and effective justice is essential to public confidence. Alternatives to court proceedings should be used more widely, ensuring that early, proportionate interventions address the causes of offending before problems escalate. The numbers of untried people on remand must be reduced and ineffective short sentences must be used less frequently.

Community sentences must be robust, credible, and properly resourced and evaluated – providing accountability while helping people change their behaviour and circumstances. While people are in prison they must be rehabilitated effectively. Release of prisoners is almost always inevitable, therefore it should be managed, planned, and grounded in evidence and a good understanding of risk. Communities and authorities have work to do in supporting those who return.

Structural change is required so there is effective leadership for the community justice sector to move all those involved towards improved outcomes. Investment in Justice Social Work and key services is critical if courts and the public are to have confidence in them and their availability across the nation. We have witnessed the vast amount of work being done by social work and the third sector in communities, but that does not get the public recognition that prisons do.

We have also identified data and evidence as strategic weaknesses across the current system. Too often, justice decisions are made without timely or connected information. Reforming how government and organisations involved in delivering justice collect, analyse, and share data is essential to building a modern, accountable, and evidence-led system.

We have listened carefully to the voices of victims and survivors of crime. Their consistent message is that they want to feel safe – in their homes and their communities. They want to have confidence that justice is delivered fairly and effectively. Reducing reoffending and preventing crime is the surest way to achieve that goal. We have heard that offering victims clear information and trauma-informed support is key too. We have also listened to those who have had contact with the justice system who have told us that the best way to reduce reoffending is to improve access to support and rehabilitation.

This report is not an end point. It is an invitation to choose a different path for Scotland – a path that leads to an ambitious future; where we follow the evidence and take a preventative approach; where we use imprisonment more wisely and significantly strengthen community responses; where we reduce reoffending and prevent the creation of future victims. Reaching this destination will require political leadership, sustained investment, and a shared commitment across government and society.

I have no doubt that if we act decisively and with determination, Scotland can transform its justice system to create a more effective, fairer and safer society for all of us.

Martyn Evans

January 2026

Chair’s acknowledgement

I would like to express my sincere thanks to my fellow Commissioners; Catherine Dyer, Chair of Community Justice Scotland and former Crown Agent, Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service; Cathy Jamieson, former Minister for Justice; Sheriff David Mackie; Dr Hannah Graham, Senior Lecturer in Criminology at the University of Stirling; Lynsey Smith, Assistant Chief Officer for Operations and Governance Glasgow Health and Social Care Partnership; for their commitment, independence of mind, and insight throughout the work of the Commission. Their collective experience and professionalism have been invaluable in shaping our conclusions and recommendations.

The Commissioners are united in their support for the ambition, direction, and recommendations of this report, and share a strong belief in the need for meaningful reform to create a safer, fairer, more effective, and sustainable justice system for Scotland. As in any process of rigorous analysis and discussion, individual members may have framed certain issues differently or placed emphasis on different aspects of the evidence, but all have contributed constructively to a shared vision for lasting improvement.

Commissioners played an active role throughout the process – attending many meetings and visits, considering evidence, contributing to the drafting of chapters, and commenting extensively on the report’s analysis and recommendations. Their collective scrutiny and constructive challenge strengthened the quality, balance, and clarity of the final report.

I also wish to record my deep appreciation to the Secretariat Alastair Bowden, Aimee Burns, Nicola Wisdahl and Shana Manzoor, as well as former member Quentin Fisher, and our social research intern Carmen Jongepier. Their professionalism and dedication have been central to the success of the Commission’s work. The Secretariat provided exemplary support in recording meetings and evidence sessions, preparing detailed advice notes and information briefings, and assisting in the drafting of the report’s final chapters. Their careful organisation, analytical rigour, and commitment to clarity ensured that the Commission’s deliberations were well informed and that its findings rest on a strong evidential foundation.

Thanks to the Justice Analytical Services division of the Scottish Government for their invaluable support in providing statistical information, analysis, and evidence at key stages throughout the Commission’s work.

We are especially grateful to the many individuals and organisations who responded to our Call for Evidence and who met with us to share their experience and advice. Across Scotland, we found people deeply committed to justice – practitioners, policy leaders, judiciary, community representatives, victims and survivors, academics, and those with lived experience – all of whom engaged with candour, respect, and a shared desire to see a fairer and more effective system.

Their contributions and leadership in every part of the justice system have enriched our understanding and strengthened the recommendations of this report. The progress that follows will depend on their continued leadership and collective commitment to collaboration and change.