Publication - Research and analysis

Just Transition Commission: background report

Published: 30 Apr 2019
Directorate:
Energy and Climate Change Directorate
Part of:
Economy
ISBN:
9781787817784

Background information report on the Scottish economy to help inform the early deliberations of the Just Transition Commission.

80 page PDF

1.9 MB

80 page PDF

1.9 MB

Contents
Just Transition Commission: background report
Footnotes

80 page PDF

1.9 MB

Footnotes

1. Scottish Government (2007) The Government Economic Strategy. Online at https://www2.gov.scot/Publications/2007/11/12115041/0

2. National Records of Scotland (2017) Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2016-based). Online at https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/sub-national-pp-16/pop-proj-principal-2016-tab-publication.pdf

3. Scottish Government (2018). Scotland's Population Needs and Migration Policy: Discussion Paper on Evidence, Policy and Powers for The Scottish Parliament, Online at https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00531087.pdf

4. Ibid. figure 1.1, page 11.

5. National Records of Scotland (2017) Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2016-based). Online at https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/sub-national-pp-16/pop-proj-principal-2016-tab-publication.pdf

6. Working age population (16-64) relative to 0-15 and 65+ age groups.

7. Scottish Government. (2018, May). Scotland's Fiscal Outlook The Scottish Government's Five Year Financial Strategy, paragraph 4.17. Online at https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-fiscal-outlook-scottish-governments-five-year-financial-strategy/

8. Scottish Government. (2018, February). Scotland's Population Needs and Migration Policy: Discussion Paper on Evidence, Policy and Powers for The Scottish Parliament. Online at https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00531087.pdf

9. National Records of Scotland (2017) Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2016-based). Online at https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/sub-national-pp-16/pop-proj-principal-2016-tab-publication.pdf

10. National Records of Scotland (2017) Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2016-based). Online at https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/sub-national-pp-16/pop-proj-principal-2016-tab-publication.pdf

11. National Records of Scotland (2017) Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2016-based). Online at https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/sub-national-pp-16/pop-proj-principal-2016-tab-publication.pdf

12. National Records of Scotland (2017) Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2016-based). Online at https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/sub-national-pp-16/pop-proj-principal-2016-tab-publication.pdf

13. Scottish Government (2015). Scotland's Economic Strategy.

14. Scottish Government (2016). Scotland's Labour Market Strategy.

15. Comprised of Glasgow City Council, East and West Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde and Renfrewshire.

16. For 4-year period to 2017/18.

17. Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS

18. Skills Development Scotland (2017). Jobs and Skills in Scotland. The Evidence.

19. Scottish Government (2018). Technological Change and the Scottish Labour Market.

20. Digital Scotland/Ekosgen(2017). Scotland's Digital Technologies: Research and Analysis Report.

21. C. B .Frey and M.A. Osborne (2013). The Future of Employment.

22. OECD (2016). The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries.

23. McKinsey & Co. (2017). Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation.

24. C.B. Frey and M.A. Osborne (2017). 'The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?' Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114.

25. NESTA (2017). The Future of Skills. Employment in 2030.

26. Scotland's Economic Strategy, Scottish Government, March 2015.

27. Submission by the Council of Economic Advisers to the First Minister of Scotland, regarding Institutions to Support Patient Capital and Economic Development, April 2017.

28. Patient capital is the name given for long term capital, where investors are willing to forgo shorter term, immediate returns in anticipation of more substantial returns in later periods.

29. Much of this may be explained by Scotland's lower population growth, compared to the UK as a whole, over the past 20 years.

30. This includes an estimate for 'Imputed Rent', with a large proportion attributed to the imputed rental of owner occupiers

31. This is a count of the number of VAT and/or PAYE registered businesses active at any point in the year

32. SIC 2007 codes: 181, 182, 262, 263, 581, 582, 591, 601, 602, 611, 612, 613, 619, 620, 631, 639, 641, 642, 643, 649, 651, 652, 653, 661, 662, 663, 691, 692, 701, 702, 711, 712, 721, 722, 731, 732, 741, 742, 743, 749, 821, 822, 823, 829, 854, 910.

33. SIC 2007 codes: 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 211, 212, 261, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 271, 272, 273, 274, 275, 279, 281, 282, 283, 284, 289, 291, 292, 293, 302, 303, 304, 309, 331, 332.

34. This change process is often summarised at Industry 4.0.

35. Mckinsey Global Institute (2017) Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions an a Time of Automation, December 2017. See also Frey and Osborne (2018) Automation and the future of work – understanding the numbers, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, 13 April 2018.

36. SCDI (2017) Automatic… For the people? How Scotland can harness the technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revoluation to increase economic and social prosperity, SCDI, 2017

37. Made Smater Review, pp-47-53.

38. Mckinsey Global Institute (2017) Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions an a Time of Automation, December 2017. See also Frey and Osborne (2018) Automation and the future of work – understanding the numbers, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, 13 April 2018.

39. Scottish Government (2015) Scotland's Economic Strategy. Page 5. Online at https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-economic-strategy/

40. Two data sources are used to measure the Solidarity target. For the income inequality part of the target the data source is the Family Resources Survey (Households Below Average Income dataset). The unit of measurement is the individual. For the "increasing total income" part of the target the data source is the Gross Disposable Household Income series, published by the Office for National Statistics.

41. Scottish Government (2018) Poverty and income inequality in Scotland: 2014-2017. Online at https://www.gov.scot/publications/poverty-income-inequality-scotland-2014-17/

42. The ratio between the top 10 per cent to the bottom 40 per cent of the income distribution was designed by Gabriel Palma. This particular ratio was adopted because the 'middle 50 per cent' (ie from 40 per cent up to 90 per cent) have a relatively stable share of national income both across countries and over time.

43. Fraser of Allander Institute (2017) How are Scottish earnings performing relative to the UK. Online at https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/labour-market/how-are-scottish-earnings-performing-relative-to-the-uk/

44. In-work poverty refers to people living in households where at least one member of the household is in either full or part-time paid work, but where the household income is below the relative poverty threshold.

45. http://www.fiscalcommission.scot/media/1435/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-december-2018-full-report.pdf

46. Machin, S (2015) Real Wage Trends. Understanding the Great Recession: From Micro to Macro Conference, Bank of England, September 23 and 24 2015

47. Andrew Hood and Tom Waters (2017) Living Standards, Poverty and Inequality in the UK: 2016-17 to 2021-22, IFS Report R127. Online at https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8171

48. Adam Corlett and Stephen Clarke, Living Standards 2017: The past, present and possible future of UK incomes, Resolution Foundation. Online at https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-2017-the-past-present-and-possible-future-of-uk-incomes/

49. Please see Annex B for notes on the robustness of these estimates.

50. The Gini coefficient compares household income at the 90th percentile of the distribution to household income at the 10th percentile.

51. Scottish Government (2015). Scotland's Economic Strategy.

52. Scottish Government (2014). Developing the Young Workforce: Scotland's Youth Employment Strategy.

53. Scottish Government (2016). Scotland's Labour Market Strategy.

54. SFC data shows that 30% of college FTEs are studying higher education qualifications.

55. A. McGregor (2018). Scotland's Future Skills Needs. Scottish Government. Figures supplied by SFC and SDS. Steering group for study chaired by SFC.

56. A. McGregor (2018). Scotland's Future Skills Needs. Scottish Government. Figures supplied by SFC and SDS. Steering group for study chaired by SFC.

57. Scottish Government website, Enterprise and Skills Strategic Board.

58. Enterprise & Skills Strategic Board (2018). Strategic Plan.

59. Annual Population Survey, ONS.

60. Defined as Glasgow City Council, plus councils for East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire.

61. Annual Population Survey, ONS.

62. Scottish Government, Attainment, Leaver Destinations and Healthy Living.

63. Scottish Government, Attainment, Leaver Destinations and Healthy Living

64. UK Employer Skills Survey, Scottish Result Tables, 2015 and 2017

65. Skills Development Scotland (2017). Jobs and Skills in Scotland: The Evidence

66. A. McGregor (2017). Implications of BREXIT for Fulfilling Work in UK. Carnegie UK Trust.

67. Digital Scotland/Ekosgen (2017). Scotland's Digital Technologies: Research and Analysis Report.

68. Scottish Government (2018). Scotland's Future Skill Needs. Evidence review for Enterprise and Skills Strategic Board's Skills Mission.

69. Skills Development Scotland (2017). Jobs and Skills in Scotland: The Evidence.

70. Computations by Oxford Economics for Skills Development Scotland.

71. Skills Development Scotland (2018). Skills 4.0. A Skills Model to Drive Scotland's Future.

72. NESTA (2017). The Future of Skills. Employment in 2030.

73. McKinsey & Co. (2017). Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation.

74. Scottish Enterprise (2018). Technology Talent Pipeline

75. ScotlandIS (2018). Technical Industry Survey.

76. Digital Scotland/Ekosgen (2017). Scotland's Digital Technologies: Research & Analysis Report.

77. SQA Statistics 2018, https://www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/64717.html

78. Scotland's target does not include emissions produced as a result of imported good and services.

79. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Scotland 2016 Key Findings, Scottish Government, 12 June 2018.

80. Committee on Climate Change, Reducing emissions in Scotland, 2018 Progress Report to Parliament, September 2018.


Contact

Email: Gregor.Auld@gov.scot