Alcohol - minimum unit pricing - continuation and future pricing: interim business and regulatory impact assessment
This business and regulatory impact assessment (BRIA) contains an assessment of two policy proposals: 1) continuing the effect of the minimum unit pricing (MUP) legislation and 2) in the event of continuation, an increase in the price per unit, to 65ppu.
Footnotes
1. No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int)
2. Reducing harm due to alcohol: success stories from 3 countries (who.int)
3. The reduction in alcohol-attributable deaths and hospital admissions found as part of the evaluation are estimates
4. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2022 (publichealthscotland.scot)
8. The Scottish Health Survey 2021 - volume 1: main report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
9. This is often cited as the 'alcohol harm paradox', Bellis MA, Hughes K, Nicholls J, Sheron N, Gilmore I, Jones L. The alcohol harm paradox: Using a national survey to explore how alcohol may disproportionately impact health in deprived individuals. BMC Public Health [Internet]. 2016 Feb 18;16(1):111. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-2766-x
10. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2022 (publichealthscotland.scot)
11. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2022 (publichealthscotland.scot)
12. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2022 (publichealthscotland.scot)
13. Rehm, J. et al. (2009) Global burden of disease and injury and economic cost attributable to alcohol use and alcohol-use disorders, Lancet; 373: 2223–33.
15. Social desirability biases in self-reported alcohol consumption and harms. (apa.org)
16. Alcohol-specific deaths | National Records of Scotland (nrscotland.gov.uk)
19. Alcohol-related hospital statistics 2021/22 Alcohol related hospital statistics - Scotland financial year 2021 to 2022 - Alcohol related hospital statistics - Publications - Public Health Scotland
20. Avoidable mortality | National Records of Scotland (nrscotland.gov.uk) published 10 November 2022
21. Alcohol-specific deaths in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
22. International comparisons - ScotPHO
23. International comparisons - ScotPHO
24. Harmful use of alcohol (who.int)
25. Global strategy to reduce the harmful use of alcohol (who.int), published 2010
27. 9780192844484.pdf (oup.com), published December 2022 (chapter 16)
28. WHO, Tackling NCD's: Best Buys and other recommended interventions for tackling the burden of non-communicable diseases (2017)WHO-NMH-NVI-17.9-eng.pdf
WHO and World Economic Forum, From Burden to 'Best Buys' : Reducing the Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Diseases in Low –and Middle-income countries, best_buys_summary.pdf (who.int)
29. The SAFER technical package (who.int)
30. OECD (2021), Preventing Harmful Alcohol Use, OECD Health Policy Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/6e4b4ffb-en
31. No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int) paras 5.4 to 5.6
32. Business: New Deal for Business Group - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
34. Public attitudes to Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) for alcohol in Scotland (publichealthscotland.scot)
35. https://www.gov.scot/isbn/9781835213285
36. Gallet CA (2007). The demand for alcohol: a meta‐analysis of elasticities* - Gallet - 2007 - Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics - Wiley Online Library
37. Wagenaar AC, Salois MJ, Komro KA (2009). Effects of beverage alcohol price and tax levels on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies - PubMed (nih.gov)
38. Fogarty J (2010). THE DEMAND FOR BEER, WINE AND SPIRITS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE - Fogarty - 2010 - Journal of Economic Surveys - Wiley Online Library
39. Elder RW, Lawrence B, Ferguson A, Naimi TS, Brewer RD, Chattopadhyay SK et al. (2010). The Effectiveness of Tax Policy Interventions for Reducing Excessive Alcohol Consumption and Related Harms - PMC(nih.gov)
40. PHS Monitoring Report 2022
41. Inflation and cost of living for household groups, UK: October 2022. ONS
46. Moore SC et al. Alcohol affordability: implications for alcohol price policies. A cross-sectional analysis in middle and older adults from UK Biobank. J. Public Health 2022; 44, e192–e202.
47. Dom G et al. The Impact of the 2008 Economic Crisis on Substance Use Patterns in the Countries of the European Union. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public. Health 2016; 13.
48. MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland
50. PHS MESAS Monitoring Report 2022, excel spreadsheets and graphs on alcohol price and affordability
53. PHS MESAS Monitoring Report 2022, excel spreadsheets and graphs on alcohol price and affordability, figure 3, https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/media/13690/mesas-monitoring-report-2022-alcohol-price-and-affordability.xlsx
54. To note that the above table suggests there are still products that are sold below the current 50p MUP. This is due to the way that sales data are recorded as opposed to products being sold illegally. Following the introduction of MUP, products and prices were analysed as part of the Public Health Scotland evaluation and they found that the main reasons for products looking as if they were being sold for less than 50ppu were rounding (data company recorded price as 49.9ppu) and splitting of a multipack. The PHS study found that when retailers split a multipack into its individual items and sell them (which could happen if a can was damaged), can result in lower prices in sales records that do not reflect actual in-store sales. Because the barcode on the individual item can be the same as the multipack, this can misrepresent the number of sales as equalling the number of split containers, rather than the one multipack. Thus a four-pack of 500ml, when split, can be misrepresented as four multipacks rather than four individual items (i.e. 16 individual tins being sold for the price of four, or 8 litres for the price of 2 litres).
55. 45% of sales below 50ppu in 2017 from latest MESAS Report. Revised from 47% published in the 2018 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotlands Alcohol Strategy (MESAS), 2018 (healthscotland.scot) , page 8
56. https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf
57. No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int)
58. https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf
61. Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland: Final report (publichealthscotland.scot) , section 6, page 95
62. MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland, alcohol price and affordability spreadsheet
63. https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf
64. MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland, alcohol and price affordability spreadsheet
67. No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int)
68. https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf
69. Section 7, 00532197.pdf (www.gov.scot)
70. Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) 'Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3', ScHARR: University of Sheffield
71. Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) 'Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3', ScHARR: University of Sheffield, Table 4.17, page 66
72. Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) 'Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3', ScHARR: University of Sheffield, Table 4.22, page 79
73. https://sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sarg-scottish-mup-report-2023.pdf
74. No place for cheap alcohol: the potential value of minimum pricing for protecting lives (who.int)
75. Evaluating the impact of alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) on alcohol-attributable deaths and hospital admissions in Scotland (publichealthscotland.scot) , published 21 March 2023
76. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland's Alcohol Strategy (MESAS) - Alcohol - Health topics - Public Health Scotland, revised down from 47% in 2018 PHS MESAS report
77. Based on the value of a prevented fatality (VPF) calculated by the Department for Transport (DfT). Estimated at £1.9m in 2020 prices. This is based on willingness to pay for reduced probability of death.
79. Scottish Government analysis of Circana Ltd data
80. Estimated weighted average unit price from PHS Products and Prices study. Data provided separately for top 50 selling products in supermarket and convenience channels. A weighted average price has been estimated based on value of sales of product if in top 50 selling products in both supermarket and convenience channels. Estimates only available for products which are in Top selling list in 2022 and 2017-18.
81. Average of 'table wine' used for 2017 data due to different categorisation in datasets
82. Alcohol Duty: rate changes - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
84. Overview of the UK Internal Market (publishing.service.gov.uk)
85. The alcohol industry – An overview.docx (ias.org.uk)
86. Supermarket and convenience sector sales combined, excludes sales data from discounter stores (Aldi, Lidl).
87. Previous three years of sales data of Scottish off-sales market purchased from market intelligence company Circana Ltd.
88. MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland – estimate of total sales value using average price per unit, total units sold per adult drinker, adult population of Scotland.
90. Developments - Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
91. Four common frameworks are listed for the Department of Health & Social Care and none are relevant.
92. MUP does not apply to sales to trade, The Alcohol (Minimum Price per Unit) (Scotland) Amendment Order 2020 (legislation.gov.uk)
93. WTO | Technical Barriers to Trade
94. Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2020 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
95. Facts & Figures (scotch-whisky.org.uk)
96. Export statistics Scotland: 2019 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
97. Cereal and oilseed rape harvest: final estimates - 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
98. Petrie, D. et al. (2011) Scoping study of the economic impact on the alcohol industry of pricing and non-price policies to regulate the affordability and availability of alcohol in Scotland.
99. Scottish Liquor Licensing Statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
104. Evidence on cross-border purchasing to date (publichealthscotland.scot)
107. Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices (publichealthscotland.scot)
110. Scottish Breweries & Craft Beer | VisitScotland
111. Breweries in Scotland (camra.org.uk)
112. Facts & Figures (scotch-whisky.org.uk)
113. Independently Owned Scotch Distilleries - The Whiskey Wash
114. 14 new whisky distilleries opening in Scotland soon | Scotsman Food and Drink
115. 9 Things You Didn't Know about Scottish Gin | VisitScotland
116. The Scottish Gin Society A-Z of Scottish Gins - The Scottish Gin Society
117. The Scottish Gin Society Scottish Gin Distillery Map - The Scottish Gin Society
121. Competition impact assessment: guidelines for policymakers - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
123. Scottish Government analysis of Circana Ltd market data, excludes discounters (Aldi, Lidl)
124. MESAS monitoring report 2022 - Publications - Public Health Scotland
125. Tackling harmful alcohol use: economics and public health policy. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (https://www.oecd.org/health/tackling-harmful-alcohol-use-9789264181069-en.htm)
127. Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing, Evidence on cross-border purchasing to date (publichealthscotland.scot)
128. Addendum (YouGov) to 'Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing', published 31 January 2023, Addendum (YouGov) to 'Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing' (publichealthscotland.scot)
129. Evidence on cross-border purchasing to date (publichealthscotland.scot)
130. Addendum (YouGov) to 'Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing', published 31 January 2023, Addendum (YouGov) to 'Evaluating the impact of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol in Scotland on cross-border purchasing' (publichealthscotland.scot)
131. https://www.mshblegal.com/Licensing-Blogs/Licensing/alcohol-to-order.html
142. The Scotch Whisky Regulations 2009 (legislation.gov.uk)
143. Evaluating the impact of MUP on alcohol products and prices (publichealthscotland.scot)
147. Fogarty, J. (2008) The demand for beer, wine and spirits: Insights from a meta analysis approach, American Association of Wine Economists, Working paper No.31, November 2008
148. WP201702.pdf (ifs.org.uk)
149. Estimation of own and cross price elasticities of alcohol demand in the UK—A pseudo-panel approach using the Living Costs and Food Survey 2001–2009 (sciencedirectassets.com)
154. Drug and Alcohol Information System is a national database that holds data about drug and alcohol services across Scotland.
Contact
Email: MUP@gov.scot
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