3. Private-led new housebuilding
The private sector is the biggest contributor to overall house building, accounting for over two-thirds (71%) of all homes completed in the 12 months to end September 2022.
Chart 5 shows the annual number of private sector led starts and completions from 2008 to 2022 (years to end September).
This shows private sector led starts and completions falling substantially in the years to end September 2009 and September 2010 due to the financial crisis. Since then starts and completions have been broadly increasing in more recent years until dropping in the year to end September 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 construction lockdown measures in place between April and June 2020. In 2021 both starts and completions increased, but in the most recent year to end September 2022 whilst completions have increased by 7%, starts have fallen by 11%.
Chart 6 below presents the latest quarterly trends. In July to September 2022 there were 4,255 private sector led homes completed, an increase of 24% (818 homes) on the same quarter in 2021.This brings the total for the year ending September 2022 to 16,160, an increase of 7% (1,000 homes) on the 15,160 completions in the previous year.
There were 3,774 private sector led homes started in July to September 2022, an increase of 26% (777 homes) on the same quarter in 2021. This brings the total for the year to end September 2022 to 15,075 starts, a decrease of 11% (1,774 homes) on the 16,849 starts in the previous year.
|Private sector homes||Starts||Completions|
|Quarter Jul to Sep 2019||4,680||4,052|
|Quarter Jul to Sep 2020||3,510||3,204|
|Quarter Jul to Sep 2021||2,997||3,437|
|Quarter Jul to Sep 2022||3,774||4,255|
|Change from Q3 2021 to Q3 2022||777||818|
|Change from 2021 to 2022 (%)||26%||24%|
|Year to end September 2019||18,403||16,618|
|Year to end September 2020||12,579||11,823|
|Year to end September 2021||16,849||15,160|
|Year to end September 2022||15,075||16,160|
|Change from 2021 to 2022 (%)||-1,774||1,000|
|Change from 2021 to 2022 (%)||-11%||7%|
Map B below shows that the local authority areas with the highest private sector led completion rates in the year to end September 2022 are Aberdeen City, East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh, Highland, Midlothian, Perth and Kinross, South Lanarkshire and West Lothian, with all having a rate of over 37 homes per 10,000 households.
The lowest rates meanwhile are in West Dunbartonshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Argyll & Bute, Scottish Borders, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire and East Dunbartonshire, with all seeing rates of 17 or fewer homes per 10,000 households.
Note that the private sector completion rates calculations contain some estimated figures. Estimated figures have been used for private sector completions for East Dunbartonshire from October to December 2020, South Ayrshire from October to December 2021, Stirling from January to March 2022 and Moray and Angus for July to September 2022.
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