4. UK House Price Index (HPI) new build sales transactions, as a measure of private-led housebuilding activity to end October 2021
This section sets out the latest quarterly and monthly trends in the number of new build sales transactions in Scotland to end October 2021, based on residential property transaction figures published as part of the UK House Price Index (HPI).
The HPI figures show that there were 2,743 new build sales transactions in Scotland in the latest quarter July to September 2021, an increase of 13% (315 transactions) on the 2,428 transactions seen in the same quarter in 2020.
More recent HPI figures for the month of October 2021 show a total of 747 transactions for this month (see Chart 7a). This brings the total transactions in the year to end October 2021 to 11,029, an increase of 16% (1,551 transactions) on the 9,478 transactions recorded in the year to end October 2020.
It should be noted that the HPI-based figures are not directly comparable to the Scottish Government time series on private-led new build starts and completion, due to some differences in how the two sets of figures are constructed. For example, the UK HPI new build sales transaction figures are based on the date of the completed sales transaction rather than the date of completion, and will also not include self-build dwellings or homes built privately for tenures other than private sales.
Further information on the quality of the HPI data for Scotland, which is sourced from Registers of Scotland, is available in the UK HPI Quality Assurance section of the UK House Price Index web page.
Table 3 and Chart 7b below illustrate how the UK HPI figures compare to Scottish Government Private sector-led completion figures in each quarter from January to March 2019 onwards, and also provide the latest trends seen in the UK HPI new build sales transactions figures across the more recent quarter to July to September 2021.
It can be seen across the period January to March 2019 to April to June 2021 (the latest available quarterly figures for Scottish Government Private led completions) that both data series follow broadly similar trends in respect of increases or decreases compared to the previous quarter. The Scottish Government figures are higher in most quarters, but this is likely to be explained by differences in how the figures are constructed, given that some self-build dwellings or dwellings built privately for tenures other than private sales will be included, whereas the HPI figures are based on private sale transactions only.
|Quarter or year||HPI New Build Sales Transactions Volume||Scottish Government Private-led completions|
|Jan – Mar 2019||2,407||3,460|
|Apr – Jun 2019||3,293||4,562|
|Jul – Sep 2019||2,759||4,052|
|Oct – Dec 2019||3,807||4,715|
|Jan – Mar 2020||2,385||3,038|
|Apr – Jun 2020||717||687|
|Jul – Sep 2020||2,428||2,998|
|Oct – Dec 2020||3,101||3,934|
|Jan – Mar 2021||2,708||3,404|
|Apr - Jun 2021||2,938||3,651|
|Jul – Sep 2021||2,743||Not Available|
|Change from same quarter in previous year||+315|
|Change (%) from same quarter in previous year||+13%|
|12 months Oct 2019 - Sep 2020||9,337||11,438|
|12 months Oct 2020 - Sep 2021||11,490||Not Available|
|Change from previous year||+2,153|
|Change (%) from previous year||+23%|
Note there were 747 transactions recorded in the most recent month of October 2021, which brings the total 12 month figure to end October 2021 to be 11,029, an increase of 1,551 (16%) on the previous year to end October 2020. Sources: UK House Price Index: reports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (December 2021 data downloads) and Scottish Government Private Sector-led new build completions
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