3. Private-led new housebuilding
The private sector is the biggest contributor to overall house building, accounting for almost three quarters (74%) of all homes completed in the 12 months to end June 2021.
Chart 5 shows the annual number of private sector led starts and completions from 2007 to 2021 (years to end June). This shows the impact of the recession in the second half of the last decade, with private sector led starts falling substantially throughout 2008 due to the financial crisis. Private led completions decreased more gradually until 2010 and then stayed at a broadly similar level to 2013, after which they have been broadly increasing in more recent years until dropping by 23% in the year to end June 2020, due to the impact of COVID-19 construction lockdown measures in place between March and June 2020. Since then, completions have increased 12% and starts 29% to the year ending June 2021.
Chart 6 below presents the latest quarterly trends. Between April and June 2021 there were 3,651 private sector led homes completed, 2,964 more homes completed than in April to June 2020 during which housebuilding activity was largely paused due to lockdown measures. However the latest quarter is below the 4,562 homes completed in the same quarter in 2019. This brings the total for the year ending June 2021 to 13,987, an increase of 12% (1,495 homes) on the 12,492 completions in the previous year.
There were 4,559 private sector led homes started in April to June 2021, an increase of 3,686 homes on April to June 2020, during which housebuilding activity was largely paused due to lockdown measures, and at a similar level (10 homes more) to the same quarter in 2019. This brings the total for the year to end June 2021 to 17,092 starts, an increase of 29% (3,810 homes) on the 13,282 starts in the previous year.
|Private sector homes||Starts||Completions|
|Quarter Apr to Jun 2018||3,953||4,192|
|Quarter Apr to Jun 2019||4,549||4,562|
|Quarter Apr to Jun 2020||873||687|
|Quarter Apr to Jun 2021||4,559||3,651|
|Change from Q2 2020 to Q2 2021||+3,686||+2,964|
|Change from 2020 to 2021 (%)||+422%||+431%|
|Year to end June 2018||13,214||13,435|
|Year to end June 2019||17,347||16,158|
|Year to end June 2020||13,282||12,492|
|Year to end June 2021||17,092||13,987|
|Change from 2020 to 2021||+3,810||+1,495|
|Change from 2020 to 2021 (%)||+29%||+12%|
Map B below shows that the highest private sector led completion rates in the year to end June 2021 have been in the local authority areas of East Lothian and Midlothian, which have seen rates of over 51 homes per 10,000 households.
The lowest rates meanwhile, have been in Glasgow City, Dumfries & Galloway, South Ayrshire, Stirling and East Dunbartonshire, which have all seen rates of under 10 homes per 10,000 households.
Note that the private sector completion rates calculations contain some estimated figures. Estimated figures have been used for private sector completions for East Dunbartonshire Council and South Ayrshire council from October to December 2020, Angus Council and Glasgow City Council from January to March 2021, and Aberdeen City from April to June 2021.
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