Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan: Child Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment

Child Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment (CRWIA) for Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan

Disclaimer

This document is a point in time assessment of the likely effects of the above-named proposal on the rights and wellbeing of children and young people. This impact assessment should be read in conjunction with other impact assessments prepared for this proposal.

Scottish Government acknowledge the importance of monitoring and evaluating the impact of strategic decisions and legislation on children’s rights and wellbeing. Any information gathered during implementation of the legislation or strategic decision to which the impact assessment relates, will be used to inform future determinations of impact. Any new strategic decision or new legislation (including amending legislation) would be subject to a new CRWIA in line with the legislative requirements.

1. Brief Summary

Type of proposal:

• Decision of a strategic nature relating to the rights and wellbeing of children.

Name the proposal and describe its overall aims and intended purpose.

The Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan (JTP) is the Scottish Government’s first regional, place-based Just Transition Plan, that works to support a decarbonised industrial cluster whilst embedding positive and equitable outcomes for the workforce and wider community of Grangemouth. The plan makes clear our vision for the future of the industrial cluster and charts a series of actions focussing on securing long-term investment for achieving our net zero ambitions by codesigning solutions with and for business as well as the wider community. A draft version of the Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan underwent a public consultation between November 2024 and February 2025.

The JTP’s overall purpose is to provide a strategic framework to guide decision making for the cluster on the path to reach Net Zero by 2045.

To do this, the JTP outlines a vision for the future, illustrating the Scottish Government’s ambition for Grangemouth and a target for Grangemouth to become a carbon-neutral hub by 2045. The cluster aims to become a Net Zero chemicals centre, supporting the development of biofuels and hydrogen sectors that play a key role in driving Scotland’s energy security and economic prosperity. To achieve this, the Scottish Government has set out five key transition pillars that it aims to address:

1) A thriving industrial cluster, leveraging existing strengths;

2) A low-carbon fuel and energy hub for the future;

3) An industrial carbon capture point for central Scotland;

4) Scotland’s central bio-manufacturing location; and

5) An innovative cluster leading new and advanced industrial processes and manufacturing.

These pillars are intended to help bridge the technical and commercial actions required, which is expected to result in a series of outcomes that the plan aims to improve.

In support of this, the Plan also provides a set of Just Transition Outcomes that are guided by the Scottish Government’s National Just Transition Planning Framework, outlining four outcome areas that the plan should achieve. The four outcome areas the JTP aims to improve are:

• Jobs, Skills, and Economic Opportunities
• Communities and Places
• People and Equity
• Adaptation, Biodiversity and Environment

These outcomes are intended to ensure that the communities and workforce are given equal priority and stand to benefit from decision making that supports the economic growth of Grangemouth as it transitions to net zero. To achieve this, the plan also includes a series of 21 actions that will enable a just transition for Grangemouth. These actions have been divided into near, medium-, and longer-term activities.

Broadly, the actions pertain to improving a range of areas and themes across the cluster, including aligning strategy and governance, improving access to jobs and skills, regulatory changes, enhanced engagement between community and industry, and increased access to Scottish and UK Government funding. The efficacy of these actions will be measured against a robust monitoring and evaluation framework, which is also set out within the JTP.

Of the 21 actions outlined within the Plan, some are significantly developed or underway while others will require further scoping and agreement across the Grangemouth Future Industry Board (GFIB) before they commence. We have therefore developed a Theory of Change (ToC) to assess the projected impact of this programme. This ToC identifies a series of impact pathways which have enabled us to make a series of informed assumptions on the potential impact of actions set out within the JTP. To this end, the Scottish Government acknowledges the need for further CRWIAs to be conducted to assess the impact of individual actions currently set out at a high level within the JTP prior to their commencement. Whilst children and young peoples’ rights and wellbeing are not the only focus of the JTP, it acknowledges the importance of these groups as part of the local community and future workforce. To address the limitations in evidence and ensure the impacts are just and fair, the Monitoring and Evaluation Framework includes indicators that are relevant to measuring the ongoing impact of the JTP on children and young people. this impact assessment. These include ‘positive destinations’ for School Leavers, funding available for apprenticeships, access to green/blue spaces, and health and wellbeing metrics such as Public Health Scotland (‘PHS’) data for health outcomes.

The JTP aligns with wider Scottish Government strategic aims including the 2045 Net Zero target as well as aligning with the UK Government’s energy security objectives to achieve energy independence by aiming to double Britain’s electricity generation capacity by the late 2030s. Finally, the JTP aligns with objectives outlined in the Programme for Government 2025-26 with four key priorities in eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency, and ensuring high quality and sustainable public services. Scotland has a wide array of national and local strategies, policies, plans, and agreements to support the transition to net zero and promote economic growth which the JTP will support. These include:

• National Planning Framework 4 (‘NPF4’)
• National Strategy for Economic Transformation (‘NSET’)
• Hydrogen Action Plan
• Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029 (‘SNAP’)
• The Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan 2020-2025
• Supply Chain Development Programme (‘SDP’)
• Inward Investment Plan
• Global Capital Investment Plan

As members of the local community and potential contributors to future workforce, it is anticipated that the JTP will positively impact children and young people in several ways and is therefore considered a decision of a strategic nature relating to the rights and wellbeing of children.

Start date of proposal’s development:

The Grangemouth Future Industry Board (GFIB) commenced scoping work and initiated the approach to the JTP in December 2021. Detailed work on the plan commenced in July 2022, following which Scottish Government officials began a phase of mapping out baseline information and conducting extensive stakeholder engagement to inform the development of the draft JTP. Within this time GFIB was reconstituted, expanding its membership to include a wider range of local stakeholders. For this reason, work on finalising the draft JTP was delayed until late 2024, at which time the actions within the plan were agreed by all stakeholders. The draft JTP was published in November 2024 and underwent a thirteen-week consultation period. Responses gathered during this consultation were used in conjunction with existing data gathered during the drafting process to inform this CRWIA.

Start date of CRWIA process: 24 March 2025

2. With reference given to the requirements of the UNCRC (Incorporation) (Scotland) Act 2024, which aspects of the proposal are relevant to/impact upon children’s rights?

The JTP has both direct and indirect relevance to children’s rights. While it is not a child-focused policy, it contains several proposed actions and outcomes that can impact children and young people in the surrounding area, particularly through changes to economic opportunity, education and the environment.

At a strategic level, the plan outlines a future vision for the Grangemouth industrial cluster, that proposes a decarbonised manufacturing hub that provides greater socio-economic securities for the surrounding people of Grangemouth. If realised this could have a potentially transformational impact on children and young people.

More specifically, as part of the transition, the JTP proposes several actions that place a focus on improving the quality of life in the town, supporting measures to address or alleviate local deprivation, and increasing connectivity and transport offers. Barriers to participation in education and employment are also addressed as part of the proposed actions, which are highlighted as key issues facing young people in Grangemouth’s deprived areas. As discussed further in Question 8, the JTP is expected to result in positive impacts on children and young people’s rights, particularly in relation to their rights to education, to the highest attainable standard of health and access to healthcare services, and to a standard of living which is adequate for their physical, mental, spiritual, moral and social development.

The JTP takes account of distinct groups through research into socio-economic challenges facing the local residents of Grangemouth and engagement with the local community, including students and families. Specific groups of young people are intended to benefit from the delivery of the proposed actions if they are successfully implemented.

The JTP is therefore particularly relevant to several of the UNCRC requirements (as incorporated into Scots law). Given that the JTP promotes improved access to skills development and STEM education pathways, it is particularly relevant to Articles 27, 28, and 29. It is also considered that Articles 2, 24, and 31 of the UNCRC requirements. In addition, the consultation undertaken with children as part of the development of the JTP is considered to be relevant to Article 12 of the UNCRC requirements. A full explanation of this relevance is outlined in question 8.

3. Please provide a summary of the evidence gathered which will be used to inform your decision-making and the content of the proposal

Evidence Gathered via Existing Research, Reports, and Policy Expertise

The JTP provides qualitative and quantitative data outlining a range of socio-economic indicators relevant to the Grangemouth area. These provide context into the environment children and young people are growing up in, including data on employment, education, income, and access to services.

The full JTP can be consulted for more detail, however broadly speaking Grangemouth as a whole scores slightly lower than the national average in terms of employment levels, participation in education and income and employment deprivation.

Specifically, The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) provides insights based on income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime, and housing. Grangemouth has five data zones in the 20% most deprived areas of Scotland. Areas across the town centre and residential communities in Bowhouse and Kersiebank are notable. However, the surrounding area is significantly less deprived. A Just Transition for the Grangemouth industrial cluster must consider how the localised challenges facing the residents of these areas of Grangemouth can be addressed

Approximately 27% of people were income deprived, 24% were employment deprived, and only 2.1% of young adults (17-21 years old) had entered into full-time higher education. Concurrently, 16% of young people (16-19 years old) were not participating in education, employment or training. Overall, these areas in Grangemouth rank lower than equivalently deprived areas in both Falkirk and Scotland more broadly.

Transport data gathered via TRACC identified that Grangemouth residents face increased travel times for any area outside of Falkirk. This was anecdotally noted as impacting the attractiveness of Grangemouth as a place to live, and that it will impact residents that are less able to afford private transport or those who cannot drive based on age or disability.

Evidence Gathered via Stakeholder Consultation

The engagement process for developing the draft Just Transition Plan involved one-to-one interviews, workshops, data requests and consultations with industry representatives, trade unions, local communities, charities, environmental groups, and the public to gather insights and feedback. These engagements have largely informed early draft developments of the plan including the vision and action plan sections of the document, which have undergone further extensive review and validation with stakeholders.

A number of stakeholders consulted have a leadership role and significant expertise in the supporting the future development of children and young people, including Skills Development Scotland, Forth Valley College, officials with a role in shaping skills policy, and businesses themselves from an employer perspective.

Following publication of the draft JTP in November 2024, a public consultation was launched to gather updated insights and feedback. Among these, CVS Falkirk & District undertook a consultation exercise with the local third sector and communities of Grangemouth.

This was first piloted with three local groups and initial feedback found the consultation to be lengthy and complex. This was validated by GFIB and CVS Falkirk & District consequently submitted a simplified and reworked consultation, reducing the consultation from 41 to 21 questions, simplifying the language and creating different formats which would appeal to the many communities of Grangemouth. The revised consultation was launched on 24 November 2024 and completed on 6 February 2025.

The approach involved a communications and participation strategy to provide a wide range of accessible formats for responses. These included:

• Digital consultation: An online questionnaire that was accessed through an online web link and QR code. It was promoted through the CVS Falkirk & District website, weekly ebulletins, local networks and social media platforms reaching an initial 2,000 recipients. Additionally, these links were shared across partner social media platforms, local networks and contacts.
• Social media: A range of social media posts were published breaking the consultation down into specific topics and consultation questions. This increased the reach into an audience of more than 2,000 recipients. These posts were shared through local community and neighbourhood pages, increasing the visibility of the consultation further.
• Printed: Information and story boards were designed, published and available in Grangemouth for people to read more about the JTP and to gain a better understanding of the pillars that would directly impact them. 2,500 leaflets providing information and invitation to complete the consultation were made distributed throughout community spaces, libraries, local businesses and the communities of Grangemouth.
• In-person: A range of in-person consultations took place through community spaces with established community groups, in partnership with other third sector organisations, schools and college (students and staff), local retail outlets (customers and staff) and CVS Falkirk & District’s Grangemouth Hub.

Overall, 113 respondents fully completed the consultation. The consultation analysis provided a combination of qualitative and quantitative data as well as direct comments from participants highlighting their personal views about the draft JTP. Additionally, they provided general comments about the current issues facing industries in Grangemouth and how that is affecting local people.

Consultation that took place following the publication of the draft JTP identified several key themes that are directly relevant to children’s rights and wellbeing, with respondents including families, young people, students, and relevant organisations. The overarching view of responses indicated support for the JTP Vision and its impact on the quality of life for residents but noted that the plan is too vague given its current maturity. This was significant given that respondents highlighted a lack of trust in executing a transition that is inclusive of the local residents. Additional concerns covered barriers and challenges that the JTP aims to address through the proposed actions, including skills development and employment opportunities. While the actions in the JTP are generally directed at a broader level than specifically to children and young people, it is evident that these groups have been considered as part of the decision-making process.

Both the Scottish Government’s online consultation, alongside the CVS Falkirk & District community focused consultation have been collectively analysed and this has informed the final version of the JTP.

A publication outlining this analysis will be published in due course.

Evidence Gathered in Consultation with Children and Young People

Direct consultation took place with S5 and S6 pupils from schools through the local area to discuss the Just Transition vision for Grangemouth. These discussions provided an opportunity to gather the views of young people towards delivering a Just Transition for the region. Overall, the discussion provided insight into how the students see themselves as the future community and workforce for the area. Key themes that were raised included:

• Respondents are aware of the climate emergency and were appreciative to have their views considered.
• Pathways to employment formed a significant part of the discussion, with pupils expressing interest in pursuing a range of job opportunities in Grangemouth through apprenticeships and graduate programmes.
• It was recognised that information on pathways to employment was limited to word-of-mouth reports from family members who worked at businesses across the cluster, and to a lesser extent from research that pupils had conducted themselves. Pupils expressed a desire to hear more about employment opportunities directly from employers.
• Gender imbalance within industrial roles was identified as having negatively impacted the interest of young women and girls in pursuing these opportunities.
• The opportunities afforded by emerging technologies such as hydrogen production and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage emerged as a topic of interest for pupils, especially among those who expressed a desire to pursue university degrees in sciences.
• It was recognised that issues such as flaring, noise pollution, and a lack of investment in green spaces have impacted negatively on how young people feel about their surroundings.
• There is a preference for accessing information in a way that is easily accessible, concise and relatable to their daily lives. This highlighted that targeted campaigns through social media platforms may offer a way to meaningfully engage with young people.

The direct consultation that took place with S5 & S6 pupils across Grangemouth and surrounding areas highlighted that young people are aware of the challenges and opportunities associated with the industrial transition. Many of the respondents view themselves as the future workforce and community leaders and are supportive of a Just Transition that includes opportunities for their voices to be heard. However, they reported having limited access to direct information on employment pathways, often relying on personal connections or proactively seeking information themselves. A lack of accessible guidance may act as a barrier, particularly for those without personal connections to individuals currently working across the industrial cluster. Gender disparities in industrial roles were also recognised, with concerns that this discourages participation from young women. Pupils expressed interest in emerging green technologies, while also highlighting environmental concerns, helping to shape their perception of what is required for the local area. This engagement suggests that without inclusive and proactive support, existing inequalities may be reinforced rather than reduced during the transition.

4. Further to the evidence described at ‘3’ have you identified any 'gaps' in evidence which may prevent determination of impact? If yes, please provide an explanation of how they will be addressed

The public consultation on the draft Plan did not mandate that respondents record their age nor the ages of children in their care when submitting a response. This may constitute a gap in evidence as having definitive knowledge of the age demographic of respondents would better allow us to determine the impact of the JTP on children and young people when conducting the two-yearly monitoring and evaluation cycle outlined in the Plan. To mitigate this the Scottish Government will consider ways of ascertaining respondents’ age during future monitoring and evaluation exercises for the JTP.

5. Analysis of Evidence

Broadly, the future of Grangemouth’s industrial cluster and its impact on the surrounding community presents both challenges and opportunities facing children and young people within the area. Based on the evidence outlined in Question 3, it can be considered that the transition of the industrial cluster to a net zero manufacturing hub will have a number of implications for children and young people.

Evidence for Grangemouth suggests that a number of children and young people are likely to be living in households experiencing financial hardship, unemployment, or insecure work. Evidence suggests this type of environment can influence multiple aspects of a child and young person’s life, including their health, education, and employment. In outlining steps to improve socio-economic standards across Grangemouth, actions within the Plan have the potential to positively impact the realisation of children’s rights under several of the UNCRC requirements (as incorporated into Scots law). Please see question 8 for more information.

Given the current circumstances, and that the core principle of the JTP initiative is to deliver enhanced positive benefits to people and place through industrial transition, our analysis suggest that the Grangemouth JTP initiative can be expected to have a net-positive impact on children and young people through the provision of funded and tailored actions focusing on community, improved place-making, jobs and skills and the environment. We will continue to assess the efficacy of activity on these aspects through regular monitoring and evaluation.

6. What changes (if any) have been made to the proposal as a result of this assessment?

Several new themes emerged during public consultation, including with S5 and S6 pupils across the Grangemouth and Falkirk area. These views have been considered in the redrafting process of the final JTP, including the further development of the Vision and Action Plan sections.

Overall, young people identified the importance of early and accessible information on pathways to employment, gender inclusivity in roles, local environmental quality, awareness of opportunities in emerging technologies, and access to relevant communication channels. These insights highlighted how children and young people view themselves as future participants in the Grangemouth workforce, and as residents impacted by local environmental and economic change. The Vision section of the JTP was amended to take cognisance of these points and directly conveys the views of young people ascertained from this engagement.

Consultation that took place after the publication of the draft JTP included insights from families, young people, teenagers and pupils from the local community. This consultation supported the views from S5 & S6 students which helped raise additional points of consideration, including the need for an improvement in the quality of life for residents, improved learning opportunities and skills development, sustainable and accessible employment, and community engagement in decision making. The Ministerial foreword of the plan was subsequently redrafted to take cognisance of the feedback received from local community stakeholders during the public consultation on the draft version of the JTP. The Vision section within the JTP was also updated to provide a summary of points raised by the community during consultation.

During the public consultation on the draft JTP a concern was raised about whether the private sector will support the JTP Outcomes given their focus on profitability. Consequently, a commitment to monitor local industrial operators’ Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) investment was added to the Plan’s monitoring and evaluation framework. It is possible that any potential CSR spending could have direct and indirect positive impacts on the UNCRC requirements outlined in question 8.